Oh Come On
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- JohnnyFactor
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Re: Oh Come On
Thanks! I got some historical perspective by reading both of the epic PP threads at Bogleheads. It took three weeks to get through them, but I saw the sentiment and results from the credit crisis of 2008, the gold top of 2011, and the gold crash of 2013. I've read all of the Harry Browne economic books and listened to his radio show. I feel prepared for whatever may come but it sure is nice to have a booming start.
- dualstow
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Re: Oh Come On
I kind of like the image of a "noobile" investor.
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Re: Oh Come On
Performance has been amazing this year, and pretty unexpected too!
EU-PP is up 10.4% YTD. Inflation 0%.
The long term euro-gov bonds are up 25%, yielding absolutely nothing...
EU-PP is up 10.4% YTD. Inflation 0%.
The long term euro-gov bonds are up 25%, yielding absolutely nothing...
Re: Oh Come On
Hey Sophie,sophie wrote:Some wise soul in another thread observed that portfolios in general are in drawdown about 70% of the time. That's a lot of enduring, but if you don't stick with your chosen portfolio through those drawdowns, you won't be around for the times when it's doing well. By the time you realize a portfolio is doing well, it's mostly or all the way through its growth spurt, and you'd be buying into it just in time to watch it turn around and head back down, or stagnate. So unfortunately it doesn't work to treat investing like a football game. It's more like getting through the Tour de France, with the finish line about 30 years away.
Does "in drawdown" just mean that the portfolio is not at an all-time high at any point, or is it something more complex than that? With the PP at an all-time high, I'd like some perspective. Does my intuition tell me that it should go down from here because that's what's really most likely to happen?
Also, thanks for the Tour de France reference. The riders are just starting the ascent of The Tourmalet and I had forgotten to fire up my online Guardian feed!
Re: Oh Come On
Anything that makes you feel like the portfolio isn't going anywhere, and that maybe you should have invested in something else that's doing well at the time.
The PP seems to operate in spurts, I guess because that's how stock market scares happen. It drags the rest of the time. Most annoying
The PP seems to operate in spurts, I guess because that's how stock market scares happen. It drags the rest of the time. Most annoying
Re: Oh Come On
I don't know if I'm the 70% poster Sophie mentioned but I did write a 70% time in DD post a couple of days back. DD is anytime you are not reaching a new high. A good example was last year...almost the entire year was in DD. If you take the Nasdaq 100 it was in DD for what 15-16 years in a row?
Re: Oh Come On
So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
Re: Oh Come On
All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction".Reub wrote:So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 11.2%
6/30/16: 12.5%
7/8/16: 15.2%
Replacing VTI with USMV (low volatility equities) USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 13.7%
6/30/16: 14.7%
7/8/16: 17.5%
The Golden Butterfly using VV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.3%
6/30/16: 11.7%
7/8/16: 14.1%
Replacing LC blend with LC value using VTV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.7%
6/30/16: 12.1%
7/8/16: 14.4%
Double USMV so essentially USMV/USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 12.6%
6/30/16: 14.4%
7/8/16: 16.9%
Re: Oh Come On
Wow, that is nice! Thanks!iwealth wrote:All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction".Reub wrote:So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd?
VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 11.2%
6/30/16: 12.5%
7/8/16: 15.2%
Replacing VTI with USMV (low volatility equities) USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 13.7%
6/30/16: 14.7%
7/8/16: 17.5%
The Golden Butterfly using VV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.3%
6/30/16: 11.7%
7/8/16: 14.1%
Replacing LC blend with LC value using VTV/VBR/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 9.7%
6/30/16: 12.1%
7/8/16: 14.4%
Double USMV so essentially USMV/USMV/GLD/TLT/SHY:
6/27/16: 12.6%
6/30/16: 14.4%
7/8/16: 16.9%
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Re: Oh Come On
I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
My VP contains bitcoins, and those have been doing very well this year, as well.
My VP contains bitcoins, and those have been doing very well this year, as well.
Re: Oh Come On
edsanville, where in tarnation have you been? You posted some data on rebalancing bands way back that I'd I'd love to see again. From my recollection you essentially showed that bands ranging from 26/24 all the way up to 40/10 had more or less the same results (taxes and transaction fees not included). Do you still have those numbers? Anyway, good to have you back, nubile or otherwise.edsanville wrote:I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
- buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On
My PP is maturing and attractive. There I said it!
Re: Oh Come On
Barrett, in honor of edsanville's return I am posting a link to his rebalancing chart. It sure does seem that no matter where one rebalances the returns hold up:barrett wrote:edsanville, where in tarnation have you been? You posted some data on rebalancing bands way back that I'd I'd love to see again. From my recollection you essentially showed that bands ranging from 26/24 all the way up to 40/10 had more or less the same results (taxes and transaction fees not included). Do you still have those numbers? Anyway, good to have you back, nubile or otherwise.edsanville wrote:I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/foru ... 097#p19097
Re: Oh Come On
Thanks for digging that up, Reub. That chart was a real eye opener for me. I'm probably oversimplifying things but the takeaway seems to be, "rebalance whenever you feel like doing so."Reub wrote:Barrett, in honor of edsanville's return I am posting a link to his rebalancing chart. It sure does seem that no matter where one rebalances the returns hold up:barrett wrote:edsanville, where in tarnation have you been? You posted some data on rebalancing bands way back that I'd I'd love to see again. From my recollection you essentially showed that bands ranging from 26/24 all the way up to 40/10 had more or less the same results (taxes and transaction fees not included). Do you still have those numbers? Anyway, good to have you back, nubile or otherwise.edsanville wrote:I'm no "nubile investor," but I'm proud to say I didn't doubt the PP for a moment. I've been fully invested in it since May, 2012.
http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/foru ... 097#p19097
- MachineGhost
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Re: Oh Come On
It's from 2011. If you want to try out different rebalancing bands, use Peak2Trough backtester back to 4/1968 which came out much later. I do believe 40/10 is optimal.barrett wrote:Thanks for digging that up, Reub. That chart was a real eye opener for me. I'm probably oversimplifying things but the takeaway seems to be, "rebalance whenever you feel like doing so."
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Oh Come On
On doesn't know in advance which will be better. All one can know is that in a flat/choppy market narrower bands will work better and in a trending market wider bands will do better.
The main point of rebalancing is to maintain a consistent risk profile.
The main point of rebalancing is to maintain a consistent risk profile.
Re: Oh Come On
Agreed, wide bands leave you with potential exposure to a very unbalanced risk profile during an extreme market event. Not sure I'd feel comfortable holding onto a 38/12/38/12 portfolio just because a backtest tells me doing so resulted in a slight increase in CAGR over the past 40 years.Kbg wrote:The main point of rebalancing is to maintain a consistent risk profile.
- MachineGhost
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Re: Oh Come On
IIRC, the risk decreases as well. The rebalancing bands is a form of market timing so the default 35/15 may have been good in 1987, but since bonds have zoomed from 6-7 duration to 22 in the resulting years...iwealth wrote:Agreed, wide bands leave you with potential exposure to a very unbalanced risk profile during an extreme market event. Not sure I'd feel comfortable holding onto a 38/12/38/12 portfolio just because a backtest tells me doing so resulted in a slight increase in CAGR over the past 40 years.Kbg wrote:The main point of rebalancing is to maintain a consistent risk profile.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: Oh Come On
and so it begins
- buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On
Yup.dragoncar wrote:and so it begins
Sure wish gold had followed suit and risen with equities.
Wishful thinking.
- dualstow
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Re: Oh Come On
I can hear my late grandmother's voice in my head. "It goes up every day you vant?"
{ She didn't really talk like that in real life, but that's what I hear right now. }
{ She didn't really talk like that in real life, but that's what I hear right now. }
- buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On
So true!dualstow wrote:I can hear my late grandmother's voice in my head. "It goes up every day you vant?"
{ She didn't really talk like that in real life, but that's what I hear right now. }
Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once
- dualstow
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Re: Oh Come On
I think you've written a poem!buddtholomew wrote: Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once
Almost rhymes.
- MachineGhost
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Re: Oh Come On
Schmuck, no?buddtholomew wrote:So true!
Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
- buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On
That too. Probably the most often besides schmendrick (sp?)MachineGhost wrote:Schmuck, no?buddtholomew wrote:So true!
Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once