Oh Come On

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:39 am

MachineGhost wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:So true!
Makes me sick to think that I am that sick
Been called a mashugana or putz, perhaps a shmok more than once ;)
Schmuck, no?
That too. Probably the most often besides schmendrick (sp?)
dragoncar
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by dragoncar » Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:31 pm

And so it unbegins
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buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:37 pm

Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by iwealth » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:14 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
EDV is so monstrously volatile, hope you can handle watching it! Total return will be nearly identical to the TLT but it'll feel like a wilder ride.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:24 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Is it inflation, deflation or the FED?
Maybe its to punish those that went to cash..
Mostly it's foreign money looking for a place to hide. The global economy is dangerously weak with many of the major industrialized states showing signs of slipping back into recession. Compounding this is that many of them already have zero or negative interest bond rates. By contrast the US economy seems to be limping along for now, not in anything resembling prosperity but not in immediate danger of slipping back into recession. Our bonds with their pitiful 2-4% yields, depending on what your looking at, are quite attractive compared to the negative rates elsewhere. And there are a lot of US companies that are actually starting to pay dividends. With a strengthening dollar this could last for a while.

In short, the US is the proverbial best house in a bad neighborhood.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:56 pm

iwealth wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
EDV is so monstrously volatile, hope you can handle watching it! Total return will be nearly identical to the TLT but it'll feel like a wilder ride.
The EDV holding only comprises 6% of total income as its a small IRA.
I wanted to maintain fixed income duration and free up cash in the IRA to invest in either SPY or IAU if I need to re-balance out of treasuries.
If yields rise significantly from now I lose the same amount of absolute $ (I think) and then have the cash to reinvest at higher yields to maintain 5.6 years.
It basically opened up a few doors. Aren't expecting to make money, more decided to go with the barbell approach.
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by MachineGhost » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:53 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
Technically, it is a 6.1 year duration with 30 and 1. Before the Big Kablooey in 1980, it would have been 3 years. It's amazing such small durations can mask such portfolio damage.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:08 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Hehe...
Against every fiber in my body I went ahead and exchanged TLT for EDV/Cash in an IRA today.

I'm sure I paid a premium, but maintained the 5.6 year duration. The IRA was 100% LTT's and I wanted to balance with stocks and/or gold at a later time.
Technically, it is a 6.1 year duration with 30 and 1. Before the Big Kablooey in 1980, it would have been 3 years. It's amazing such small durations can mask such portfolio damage.
I use 24.8 and 0.
Based on my calculations I am currently 5.65
That was before today...
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:53 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:02 pm
I do find it nervewracking to wait for gold to arrive, and to store it, and to transport it to and fro the safe deposit box.
Still, I wouldn't be surprised if *a* gold ETF turned out to be a sham someday, and I am looking forward to having more in physical and less in ETFs. It just doesn't feel the same to me as owning Pepsi shares.
My last post has almost (but not quite because it would take a lot of work) convinced me to write a post on rationally looking at risk and weighing them in one's decision making. For example, I can't not prove but would guess that the odds of you getting robbed or dying in a car wreck on the way to the vault far exceed the odds of GLD going belly up. Assuming the above is true (and I have no idea if it is), a more rational strategy might be to diversify into several gold funds vice packing around physical gold concentrated in a single location.

Another for example that would be item #1 in this potential post would be something like...the risk to your personal future wealth of you not choosing a portfolio that accurately reflects your real risk tolerance and making poor trading choices at inopportune times exceeds the entire combined probability of all other systemic risk factors discussed on this board. My point isn't folks shouldn't identify potential, pay attention to and discuss various risks, but that they should pay appropriate time and attention proportional to the likelihood of said risks. But more importantly they should act accordingly.
Another key post worth resurrecting. However, I'm not fully understanding the highlighted portion.

Is "vice" the word you intended to you?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:57 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:41 pm
A wealth tax? I hope I don't live to see the day. (Crosses fingers), I mean not in a twisted Monkey's Paw story kind of way. I don't want to die young.
I just really fear something like a wealth tax. Seems like communism.
If Elizabeth Warren DOES get elected and her wealth tax proposal does get passed you MAY in YOUR lifetime see the minimum that gets taxed reach down to affect your wealth!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:00 pm

Kbg wrote:
Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:01 am
Clearly I've hit a nerve here. :o

I will just lay my opinion out very simply. Gold has unique qualities as an asset class. These can be accessed by holding phys or an electronic medium of same. Either way the benefit/risk accrues to the holder of it. In today's monetary system under extreme SHTF (like nuclear war) scenarios I don't see phys being that useful. In such a scenario what matters is protection and producing the necessities of life which a shiny metal is incapable of doing. I am totally serious about this...if this is really a concern one has go buy some farm land and learn how to cultivate it. Saving such an extreme occurrence, the electronic form isn't going to be a problem. For the hundredth time, SPX, LTTs, STTs and Gold are not arcane derivatives that are difficult to price and illiquid.

Good heavens read a little German history people if you have this fear. In the bad parts of WWI, the Weimar years and WW2 what happened to an industrialized society in true SHTF scenarios was city people hauled their butts out into the country and traded their useful stuff or labor for food. Farmers don't need gold. They need equipment, fuel for their equipment, seed, fertilizer and maybe labor.

In short, have something actually worth bartering for.
More wisdom from Kbg!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by Kbg » Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:28 pm

Versus
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:03 pm

Kbg wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:28 pm
Versus
Thought that could have been the word you had meant to use. Would your statement remain the same if one were to pack that physical gold in three or four locations? An idea I got from a post in this Forum.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Oh Come On

Post by Kbg » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:23 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:03 pm
Kbg wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:28 pm
Versus
Thought that could have been the word you had meant to use. Would your statement remain the same if one were to pack that physical gold in three or four locations? An idea I got from a post in this Forum.

Vinny
I think I'm probably not the person to ask for an unbiased view...you dug up my articulation of what I really think. If I were to go down that road I'd think silver or bronze would be a bit more useful than gold as a medium of exchange. Historically, this has been the case. Kinda like should I have a wad of 20s or 100s buried in the back yard? 100s have a greater "value", but I don't think anyone would disagree that 1/5/10/20s are day to day more "useful."

PS. I have 50 acres of land, a tractor and a bunch of other farm stuff. :-)
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