Gyroscopic Investing

How does everyone think this will play out for the PP?

Matthew19 wrote:How does everyone think this will play out for the PP?

I don't know how it will play out short-term for the PP so it's steady as she goes. But it may be a good opportunity for a variable portfolio bullish bet on the British economy going forward. The EU was a huge anchor around Britain's neck and she will be better for leaving it long-term.*

* I mention this for a variable portfolio simply because it's money that an investor can afford to lose. Do your own due diligence.

At least for today, 50% of your portfolio is flying, 25% getting hammered and 25% static.

So should be a good day today.

Watching all the news you'd think the entire world lives or dies based off stock markets.

Matthew19 wrote:How does everyone think this will play out for the PP?

I think we'll all feel smart for a few days.

Germany appears to be courting Britain, and that's a good thing.

This event answered one question that people have been asking a lot: are gold and U.S. Treasuries still the main world-wide safe haven currencies?

The answer apparently is yes. The PP's foundations are still sound, so I expect a PP portfolio will do well regardless of what happens with the stock market. It's good to keep asking the question though, because perhaps one day that will change. Would be nice to post some data over the next few days, for both the PP and its main variants like Desert and Golden Butterfly.

Interesting that the Japanese yen is also considered a safe haven.

TLT is showing a ($4) 3% jump, pre-market.

dualstow wrote:TLT is showing a ($4) 3% jump, pre-market.

DS, gold is up 5%+
LTT is hedging US equities % for %

It bears repeating: Harry Browne was a smart man.

The sense I am getting right now is TPTB will be able to turn the markets green by the end of the day, and gold will be lucky to hold $1300.

That is my current sense. I am nearly always wrong.

Cortopassi wrote:That is my current sense. I am nearly always wrong.

I like a guy who hedges his bets.

Matthew19 wrote:How does everyone think this will play out for the PP?

dualstow wrote:It bears repeating: Harry Browne was a smart man.

Amen. It's days like these when I thank my lucky stars I ran across Fail Safe Investing and this forum.

Yeah, seriously.
VNQ (REIT ETF) just went positive today.
Gold holding onto gains even with USD:EUR up 2.4%
I took a screen capture of SPY, GLD, TLT to remind me of this day and will revisit when I second guess the portfolio composition.

dualstow wrote:It bears repeating: Harry Browne was a smart man.

Amen. It's days like these when I thank my lucky stars I ran across Fail Safe Investing and this forum.

I feel the same, but it was Best Laid Investments that did it for me. Breakfast was nice this morning when the wife asked how these giant stock market losses were effecting us.

When it comes to markets, I've realized that the wisest thing I can do is realize that I'm too stupid to predict them.

EU-HB-PP is doing great!

If the EUROZONE ends what will you do?

Change for US-PP?


Thank you.

PP balance at the start of last week is $300 USD lower (0.00%) than the total today, with equities losing, gold gaining and treasuries flat.

My personal 70/30 allocation lost a total of 1.67% over the same time period. This includes a 45% allocation to INT, INT SC and Emerging Markets.

All-in, all-out investors and some traders were whipsawed back and forth when holding and ignoring the noise was the appropriate action.

Market timers and "liars" may have invested at the low, sold at the top and then shorted to earn a healthy premium given the volatilty we have experienced.

PP volatilty was lower and I felt protected holding the portfolio. Here in the Dominican Republic, French and Spanish investors were glued to their smartphones much like I was glued to the lounge chair in the infinity pool overlooking the ocean...

buddtholomew wrote:Here in the Dominican Republic, French and Spanish investors were glued to their smartphones much like I was glued to the lounge chair in the infinity pool overlooking the ocean...

I remember years ago, I was invested in such volatile stuff, that on vacation I had to find internet connectivity to check prices in case I had to sell -- there were no real smartphones then. What a stupid mental weight to bring on a vacation!

buddtholomew wrote:My personal 70/30 allocation lost a total of 1.67% over the same time period. This includes a 45% allocation to INT, INT SC and Emerging Markets.

PP volatilty was lower and I felt protected holding the portfolio. Here in the Dominican Republic, French and Spanish investors were glued to their smartphones much like I was glued to the lounge chair in the infinity pool overlooking the ocean...

None of my wealthy friends seem to care about this stuff. Not that they don't care about their money, but they all have a remarkable ability to stomach drawdowns of just about any size.

I prod one guy in particular from time to time to talk about his investments because he's sitting on 8-figures. He usually tells me he hasn't checked his balance in days or even weeks despite being nearly 100% invested in equities. Talked to him yesterday about Brexit and he was hoping for a deep extended correction for an opportunity to drip some of his dividends in at a lower cost basis. And he's not lying, I'm sure of it.

Too often I'm glued to both the lounge chair AND the smartphone. Is there any point in being defensive if I'm still unable to peel away from all of this stuff? IMO every minute spent thinking about financial markets is a minute I'm going to regret wasting from my deathbed.

I was without internet last week, and my cellphone has no data plan. That helps.
I did buy a newspaper once in the middle of the week.

8 figures = at least 10 million dollars, right? I don't think I'd worry either. Easily 200K from dividends, even when things go south.

iwealth wrote:

buddtholomew wrote:My personal 70/30 allocation lost a total of 1.67% over the same time period. This includes a 45% allocation to INT, INT SC and Emerging Markets.

PP volatilty was lower and I felt protected holding the portfolio. Here in the Dominican Republic, French and Spanish investors were glued to their smartphones much like I was glued to the lounge chair in the infinity pool overlooking the ocean...

Too often I'm glued to both the lounge chair AND the smartphone. Is there any point in being defensive if I'm still unable to peel away from all of this stuff? IMO every minute spent thinking about financial markets is a minute I'm going to regret wasting from my deathbed.

I've had the same thoughts recently.
Would I be able to be more aggressive if I cared less and looked less frequently?
When you're too close to something, you tend to miss the big picture.

I believe that Brexit will cause short-term market volatility due to uncertainty about it impact. But once calmer heads prevail, the next few days will be recognized as a great buying opportunity for your variable portfolio.

Buying into the FTSE 100 or other British-centric ETF looks to be a smart move now. Although Britain will have to negotiate new trade agreements with the Euro zone, I think the Euro zone recognizes that it needs Britain as much as Britain needs the Euro zone. However, if another country decides to bail out of the Euro zone, then all bets are off. That would be the death knell of the Euro and a great time to short everything in Europe.

frugal wrote:...

EU-HB-PP is doing great!

...

Good for you, Frugal. I'm very glad to hear it!

dualstow wrote:It bears repeating: Harry Browne was a smart man.

Amen. It's days like these when I thank my lucky stars I ran across Fail Safe Investing and this forum.[/quote]

Ditto. Most solid portfolio out there.

My PP is up 1.5% since June 1. I expect we'll be giving back some of those gains over the next week or so, but still...nice to see!

If I had 50x my living expenses saved I'd probably put it all in stocks too, because there'd be no problem living off dividends. The PP is for the rest of us who are scraping to get to that magical 25x figure.

sophie wrote:My PP is up 1.5% since June 1. I expect we'll be giving back some of those gains over the next week or so, but still...nice to see!

If I had 50x my living expenses saved I'd probably put it all in stocks too, because there'd be no problem living off dividends. The PP is for the rest of us who are scraping to get to that magical 25x figure.

Hi SOPHIE

you mean 50 annual salaries?

Or you need 25 annual salaries to early retirement ?

Sorry so many questions...

And how much % dividends does the US-PP give in average? 4-5% on the value of stocks part?

Thank you!!!

Good to hear from you frugal! Answers point by point:

I meant 50x living expenses - and best supplemented by a VERY generous cash reserve (e.g. another 5x living expenses).

25x living expenses is enough if you are comfortable with a "safe withdrawal rate" of 4%. Historically that's a fairly safe bet with the PP, but of course not guaranteed.

An S&P 500 stock index fund will yield about 2% in dividends. These are from dividends paid on the stock shares plus capital gains from the minimal amount of buying and selling that is required to maintain an index fund. Alternatively, you can buy your own stocks and select those with higher dividend payouts. Unlikely you'll get much above 3% though, especially if you stick to blue chip stocks.