New all-time high

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Pet Hog
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New all-time high

Post by Pet Hog » Sat Mar 19, 2016 4:00 pm

Uncork the champagne!  According to peaktotrough.com, the PP started on January 1 1972 with 35/15 bands and reinvested dividends reached its all-time high (nominally) yesterday, surmounting the previous peak established on February 2 last year.  Hopefully, your portfolio is at its all-time high, too.  I know mine is, and it's a relief after the big plunge (almost 8%) last year.

(The PP rebalanced annually on Jan 1 has about 1% to go to reach its all-time high, set on the same day last year.)

Congratulations, PP!
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Ad Orientem
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Re: New all-time high

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat Mar 19, 2016 4:07 pm

Image
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dualstow
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Re: New all-time high

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:24 pm

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pet hog wrote:(The PP rebalanced annually on Jan 1 has about 1% to go to reach its all-time high, set on the same day last year.)
Interesting to hear that. It would be a lot simpler to just rebalance on Jan 1. And easier to not look at the portfolio too often.
Last edited by dualstow on Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by Libertarian666 » Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:37 am

My portfolio is not at its all-time high, but then it went up a lot faster than the PP until the end of 2012.  :P
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Jake
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Re: New all-time high

Post by Jake » Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:47 am

I also just hit an all time high on nominal value, but I then calculated past years in constant prices and found that my all time real high was 2011. Boo. My portfolio is in pound sterling and was affected by some non-PP transactions, so your results may be different.

The key thing is that I'm in the drawdown phase, so I am working to stay constant in real value, not expecting massive gains.

Curious to hear if you guys are on real value all time highs, or just nominal.
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dualstow
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Re: New all-time high

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:16 am

Jake wrote: The key thing is that I'm in the drawdown phase
You sound really young in your podcasts. I thought you were in your twenties or early thirties.
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Jake
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Re: New all-time high

Post by Jake » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:15 am

dualstow wrote: You sound really young in your podcasts. I thought you were in your twenties or early thirties.
Ha, thanks! Currently in my mid forties, so if I go to the doctor, they don't try to fix anything anymore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzEhoyXpqzQ
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dualstow
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Re: New all-time high

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:25 am

Jake wrote:
dualstow wrote: You sound really young in your podcasts. I thought you were in your twenties or early thirties.
Ha, thanks! Currently in my mid forties, so if I go to the doctor, they don't try to fix anything anymore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzEhoyXpqzQ
Same age here, and he nailed it as he always does. So, so true.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: New all-time high

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:51 pm

Overweight in cash at the moment. Reluctant to re-balance into gold and treasuries.
Anyone else in the same position?
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by sophie » Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:54 pm

I'm in the midst of doing my backdoor Roth contribution for the year.  I'm going with the hold my nose and deploy equally among all four assets method.  The holding your nose part is the most important.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by economicsjunkie » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:44 pm

Jake wrote:
dualstow wrote: You sound really young in your podcasts. I thought you were in your twenties or early thirties.
Ha, thanks! Currently in my mid forties, so if I go to the doctor, they don't try to fix anything anymore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzEhoyXpqzQ
Have you called into Stef's show? For some reason I'm thinking you did.
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sophie
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Re: New all-time high

Post by sophie » Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:09 am

Oft-heard quote from a wise physician I know:

"No user-serviceable parts inside."
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
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Re: New all-time high

Post by Tyler » Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:01 am

Jake wrote: Ha, thanks! Currently in my mid forties, so if I go to the doctor, they don't try to fix anything anymore. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzEhoyXpqzQ
LOL.

I'm finally approaching 40 and starting to appreciate the wear and tear.  I guess I should get any treatment in while I still can.  ;)
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dualstow
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Re: New all-time high

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:07 pm

I don't know if it's been said, but it's kinda crazy that so many of us were struggling with our faith in the pp so recently. I'm no exception.
It really satisfies over the long term if one can stick with it.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: New all-time high

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:19 pm

Looks like I'm up just under 4% YTD. 
I'll take it.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by sophie » Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:27 pm

Gold crashes have to be the worst, because us PP'ers have to suffer through that alone.  It's been a tough few years but I'm pretty happy right now too!  Per etfreplay, the 25x4 PP is now up 6.2% YTD, compared to 0.9% for the S&P 500.

Joy!
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Re: New all-time high

Post by Mark Leavy » Tue Mar 22, 2016 10:57 pm

I've been running a weird, unleveraged 2x PP for a couple of years and even though it performed as I predicted, last year was no fun at all.  But as of today, it made me smile.

45% LT US Treasuries.
35% Physical Gold
15% XIV
05% Cash.

I also keep a smaller true PP portfolio and it was encouraging to see them both come out of the doldrums at the same time.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by ochotona » Wed Mar 23, 2016 5:12 am

I am going to study whether the "go to cash" down market phase for momentum portfolios should be replaced with "go to PP". Watch the VP area of the forum.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by sophie » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:40 am

I've wondered whether there is any point to bothering with bond allocations in retirement accounts if you hold a comparable sized PP.  The purpose of bonds in stock/bond portfolios is to dampen the effect of stock market drops, by not going down as much as stocks, at the cost of reducing returns.  Getting fancy with emerging market bonds, TIPs, and even international stocks in the stock allocation may minimize the drop but won't give you the bump you need when the stock market goes down.  And, the PP may reduce returns by a bit but not as much as the bond allocation does.  Vanguard total bond has returned 4.55% annually over the past 10 years, and 6.19% since inception.

It's too bad gold isn't available in more retirement accounts.  For most of us, retirement savings dwarf everything else, because the benefits of deferring taxes are too good to miss out on.  I tried to prove to myself once that I'd be better off paying taxes now and then paying capital gains/dividend taxes later on the earnings, rather than paying ordinary income tax rates, but no matter how I stacked the deck it was always better to defer. 
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
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Re: New all-time high

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:11 am

sophie wrote: I've wondered whether there is any point to bothering with bond allocations in retirement accounts if you hold a comparable sized PP.  The purpose of bonds in stock/bond portfolios is to dampen the effect of stock market drops, by not going down as much as stocks, at the cost of reducing returns...And, the PP may reduce returns by a bit but not as much as the bond allocation does. 
How do you feel about munis in taxable? I think of them as a little extra diversification. They definitely drag the total return down, but I use the generous interest to help pay bills, and the duration is less scary than that of 30-YR treasuries. Vp of course.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: New all-time high

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:52 am

Bend over and kiss your a$$ goodbye
Gold down 2.5% to 1215.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:08 am

Just bought some CEF.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:32 am

I'll take it.  We are still over 1200. 

Everything works opposite how I would have traded in the past. 

Oh, look, another terrorist attack.  I bet people want to go into safe havens.  Guess not. 
Oh look, another interest rate hike, I bet people want out of gold.  Guess not. 
Oh look, earnings are crap, the market should go down.  Guess not.

PP has kept me invested in things I would have bet my life on would have reacted completely differently given the situation.  If this is because things are manipulated, I suppose I can live with that now vs. gnashing my teeth because I made a wrong call.

YTD, gold +15%, TLT +5%, VTI, +0%.  (approx).  You had to figure gold had to take a breather at some point.
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Re: New all-time high

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:29 am

Just doing the change slowly.  I added about 3% more stocks right before the low in stocks whenever that was, late Jan or so, and have dropped cash to do that.  But not near the levels I want to be at.  I figure if I have it close by the end of the year I'll be good.

My targets, based off some 401k limitations are:

Total Market 15.0%
LT Bonds         25.0%
LgCap Blend 10.0%
EmMkt/IntlSmal7.5%
SmCapVal 7.5%
Cash 10.0%
Gold         25.0%
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Re: New all-time high

Post by dragoncar » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:31 am

It must be the end of the month cause the pp is down
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