Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Moderator: Global Moderator
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
CraigR has something to say about TIPS - check the Gold FAQ or his website. Among other issues, TIPS won't compensate for losses in other assets the way gold will. At best it will tread water, and that's if you have 100% faith in the CPI.
The last several posts here should probably be moved to the Variable Portfolio section. You guys are essentially talking about market timing with some of the PP assets. Which could work out very well, but it's not a PP. Nor is it passive investing, so it would also not qualify as a Boglehead allocation.
Just want to make sure a spade is being called a spade, for the benefit of those who are coming here looking for information on the Permanent Portfolio and could easily be getting confused.
The last several posts here should probably be moved to the Variable Portfolio section. You guys are essentially talking about market timing with some of the PP assets. Which could work out very well, but it's not a PP. Nor is it passive investing, so it would also not qualify as a Boglehead allocation.
Just want to make sure a spade is being called a spade, for the benefit of those who are coming here looking for information on the Permanent Portfolio and could easily be getting confused.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Sophie your right but.sophie wrote: CraigR has something to say about TIPS - check the Gold FAQ or his website. Among other issues, TIPS won't compensate for losses in other assets the way gold will. At best it will tread water, and that's if you have 100% faith in the CPI.
The last several posts here should probably be moved to the Variable Portfolio section. You guys are essentially talking about market timing with some of the PP assets. Which could work out very well, but it's not a PP. Nor is it passive investing, so it would also not qualify as a Boglehead allocation.
Just want to make sure a spade is being called a spade, for the benefit of those who are coming here looking for information on the Permanent Portfolio and could easily be getting confused.
This forum doesn't have too many posts. I think it's probably better to concentrate in one post to spark more discussion. Thus you have more user participation.
Otherwise the forum will get stale people will start to leave. Etc.
PP so well covered in 2 books now. It's simple to implement. I can't see to many people asking questions about it. Other the. Complaining about recent return.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
New threads are always welcome. Why don't you start one?
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I agree, let's try and keep threads on topic as much as possible. The HBPP has performed admirably during the recent equity decline. It has also reminded purists why they are invested in the 4x25 allocation. There are as many ice cream flavors as variants of the permanent portfolio, but one item that we can all agree on - to qualify as a HBPP, the investor includes stocks, long-term treasuries, gold and short-term treasuries in their portfolio.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Sat Jan 16, 2016 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
the moderation staff likes to stay with a traditional post content allocation, and allow the topic to drift within the 15% bands before resorting to re-balancing or ....God forbid... slice and dice thread splitting
Last edited by l82start on Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
-Government 2020+ - a BANANA REPUBLIC - if you can keep it
-Belief is the death of intelligence. As soon as one believes a doctrine of any sort, or assumes certitude, one stops thinking about that aspect of existence
-Belief is the death of intelligence. As soon as one believes a doctrine of any sort, or assumes certitude, one stops thinking about that aspect of existence
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
For anyone who hasn't seen it before, "TIPSymandias":Desert wrote: I agree with Sophie on TIPS, and I'll also add that when inflation is accompanied by rising rates, the value of TIPS can fall even if the CPI is rising. This is only for medium to longer term durations, of course.
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: I have seen a curious bond
This bond made a promise rare among men and kings,
Backed by full faith and credit
The bond made it clear to all who bought, purchasing power is safe
Those who look upon the bond are counseled to take comfort
That which is will always be, a promise made is a promise kept,
And other assorted platitudes and assurances.
On the back of the bond these words appear:
"Inflation is tamed for all time!
Gold is a barbarous relic,
Inflation look upon this mighty bond and despair!"
No record of the issuer of the bond remains.
Round the decay
Of this curious promise,
Boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands of change stretch far away.
Last edited by MediumTex on Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
TIPSymandias
Still brilliant.
Breaking Bad (and poets) has influenced this board so much.
Still brilliant.
Breaking Bad (and poets) has influenced this board so much.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
-
- Associate Member
- Posts: 31
- Joined: Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:29 am
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Markets go down as well as up and this is why I invested in the PP. When all the news is negative and the market is tanking, I can live my life because the PP is going to perform nicely in a market like this. I rebalanced my PP and bought more gold the last week in December.
I personally love the agnostic quality of the PP. Timing the market is a fool's game. Sure you may get lucky once or twice, but I would not want to market time my way to success. The market brings out emotions in all of us. If stocks are doing well, we lament that only 25% of the PP is in stocks. Harry must be wrong or misguided. Gold is a loser. Long-term bonds can't possibly go up in an environment like this. Cash is paying nothing. It goes on and on. The market is emotions. If you can't control your emotions, you will do the wrong thing at the wrong time. The PP is for the humble and for those who don't know what tomorrow may bring. I am sticking with the PP and I make no apologies to anyone for doing this. In Aesop's fable of the Tortoise and the Hare, the tortoise wins the race. Sure the hare is confident, faster and flashy. But the Tortoise is disciplined, focused and unfazed by the hare. I liken the PP to the Tortoise.
Michael
I personally love the agnostic quality of the PP. Timing the market is a fool's game. Sure you may get lucky once or twice, but I would not want to market time my way to success. The market brings out emotions in all of us. If stocks are doing well, we lament that only 25% of the PP is in stocks. Harry must be wrong or misguided. Gold is a loser. Long-term bonds can't possibly go up in an environment like this. Cash is paying nothing. It goes on and on. The market is emotions. If you can't control your emotions, you will do the wrong thing at the wrong time. The PP is for the humble and for those who don't know what tomorrow may bring. I am sticking with the PP and I make no apologies to anyone for doing this. In Aesop's fable of the Tortoise and the Hare, the tortoise wins the race. Sure the hare is confident, faster and flashy. But the Tortoise is disciplined, focused and unfazed by the hare. I liken the PP to the Tortoise.
Michael
- Pointedstick
- Executive Member
- Posts: 8866
- Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
- Contact:
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Hehe, where is that from?
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I advise any investor to adopt a contrarian attitude, at least to some extent. Nobody likes to see the value of their portfolio go down, but unless you need the cash flow you have to look at it as "Everything is on sale!" As long as you're still dollar-cost averaging into your investments, don't sweat the short-term gyrations.MediumTex wrote:But they are less overvalued than they were when everyone thought buying them was a good idea.dutchtraffic wrote:Stocks are still insanely overvalued.MediumTex wrote: Why?
If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.
The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates the stock market the most, but it's not a terrible time to buy when only most people hate the stock market a lot.
After all, do you waste time tracking the daily changes in the value of your house and then fret whenever it dips? (assuming you're not about to sell it, of course.)
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
- H. L. Mencken
- H. L. Mencken
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
See, I'm a contrarian, so whenever that happens I think "Sweet! It's even more attractively priced now! Time for me to stock up!" I never sell an investment at a loss. I have the patience of a saint and can wait years for my bets to pay off. That's the beauty of the market cycle: it's a cycle.ochotona wrote:So how will you feel in October 2016 if the shares you buy next week "on the dips" based on gut feel are worth half of what you paid for them?var wrote: +1
Yup buy on nice pull backs that said. A few more down days I'll start buying.
That's why don't even watch CNBC they'll talk PE. China down. Etc. then at some point
You'll be. In panic.
Also correct me if I am wrong. Boggle heads don't use TLT. they rather use diversified bond fund.
I think TLT is a key pp criteria.
My guess is, you'll be selling them to me at that time.
That happened when I bought some VDE about a year ago, partly as an inflation hedge. Oil of course has tanked since then, so as soon as it seems to bottom out I'll scoop up some more VDE at firesale prices to lower my cost basis. Might be a while before it bounces back, but I've got a 10+ year time horizon, and the world's energy needs are not about to diminish.
Who says you can't catch a falling knife?
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
- H. L. Mencken
- H. L. Mencken
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I don't think anyone says you can't, just that you shouldn't.rocketdog wrote:
Who says you can't catch a falling knife?
Not that I'm against being a contrarian, of course.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I will be fine that's what asset allocations about. If spy goes down and Tlt will go up.ochotona wrote:So how will you feel in October 2016 if the shares you buy next week "on the dips" based on gut feel are worth half of what you paid for them?var wrote: +1
Yup buy on nice pull backs that said. A few more down days I'll start buying.
That's why don't even watch CNBC they'll talk PE. China down. Etc. then at some point
You'll be. In panic.
Also correct me if I am wrong. Boggle heads don't use TLT. they rather use diversified bond fund.
I think TLT is a key pp criteria.
My guess is, you'll be selling them to me at that time.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
My guess. We get a big nasty drop. And we go right back up again.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
What is less well known about the story of the tortoise and the hare is that the hare was one of the worst trash talkers in the whole forest racing league and played mind games with his opponents relentlessly.Professor Disorientation wrote: In Aesop's fable of the Tortoise and the Hare, the tortoise wins the race. Sure the hare is confident, faster and flashy. But the Tortoise is disciplined, focused and unfazed by the hare. I liken the PP to the Tortoise.
In the lead up to the race with the hare, it's reported that the tortoise traveled with an entourage of professional greyhound racing dogs, each of whom wore a collar with a rabbit's foot dangling from it. Prior to the race starting, the tortoise is reported to have said: "I feel like a great chef preparing to make a giant batch of rabbit stew."
During the race, when the tortoise finally passed a mentally and physically exhausted hare gasping for breath, the tortoise is reported to have whispered in his ear: "Don't worry, the dogs will be here soon."
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I can't remember. That link is just to photobucket, but if I can find where I posted it a couple of months ago on this forum, it's probably the link to the original, which I will edit in below. First saw it on reddit.Pointedstick wrote: Hehe, where is that from?
EDIT: I googled
Code: Select all
finance app heisenberg other income
http://www.blameitonthevoices.com/2015/ ... f-day.html
Last edited by dualstow on Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
of course. i checked it out in bogglehead simba spreadsheet. nothing perfect, but its close enough for me...Desert wrote:That's not always the case, though it's been pretty consistent in the past few decades of declining interest rates. Before that period, the correlations weren't negative, they were closer to zero.var wrote: I will be fine that's what asset allocations about. If spy goes down and Tlt will go up.
i dont want over tinker with my AA.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:12 pm
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
This is a common speculating mistake that Harry discusses in "Why the Best-Laid Plans...".rocketdog wrote: I never sell an investment at a loss. I have the patience of a saint and can wait years for my bets to pay off.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
I actually use a newsletter to moderate.l82start wrote: the moderation staff likes to stay with a traditional post content allocation, and allow the topic to drift within the 15% bands before resorting to re-balancing or ....God forbid... slice and dice thread splitting
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
- Pointedstick
- Executive Member
- Posts: 8866
- Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
- Contact:
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Welcome to the forum, Mr (Mrs?) blood! I love your user name. Great perspective.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Yep.Pointedstick wrote: Welcome to the forum, Mr (Mrs?) blood! I love your user name. Great perspective.
Good stuff from CacklingBloodSlurper.
Strong first post from the latest member of the PP coven.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14292
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Thank you for reminding me of this. I found it in the hardcover. In case anyone wants to read along with the class:Jack Jones wrote:This is a common speculating mistake that Harry discusses in "Why the Best-Laid Plans...".rocketdog wrote: I never sell an investment at a loss. I have the patience of a saint and can wait years for my bets to pay off.
Chapter 15
"Other Ways the Best-Laid Plans Go Wrong." p 219: "And a positive mental attitude can cause several bad things. The sense that you're sure to succeed can encourage you to hang on to a losing investment too long, to ignore defects in your strategy..."
p 224 'Going Wrong Avoiding Losses' "One of the qualities of a successful speculator is his readiness to accept losses...To say 'I can't sell because I don't want to lose money' is to hide from the problem. You already have a loss if the investment's value has declined from the price at which you bought. Selling only acknowledges the loss, it doesn't create it. It's true that selling now destroys all hope that the investment could someday be a winner. But keeping the investment makes you a prisoner to it, while selling the investment frees you to buy anything you want."
// end book quote
I struggle with this myself.
----
edited for formatting several times. I really f'ed this up in emacs.
Last edited by dualstow on Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
mathjak started out strong too!MediumTex wrote:Yep.Pointedstick wrote: Welcome to the forum, Mr (Mrs?) blood! I love your user name. Great perspective.
Good stuff from CacklingBloodSlurper.
Strong first post from the latest member of the PP coven.
Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
But he never claimed to drink blood, so that's a big difference right there.Reub wrote:mathjak started out strong too!MediumTex wrote:Yep.Pointedstick wrote: Welcome to the forum, Mr (Mrs?) blood! I love your user name. Great perspective.
Good stuff from CacklingBloodSlurper.
Strong first post from the latest member of the PP coven.
I don't think we've ever had a blood drinker here who turned into a bad citizen.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”