Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

[Bean]

I just don't watch the market.  Actually nowadays I don't even really check the forums.

I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss.  This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.

[sk55]

I just don't watch the market.  Actually nowadays I don't even really check the forums.

I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss.  This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.

+1 on this...  i don't watch cnbc... sometimes i don't even watch the news... and i have my modified PP,  and trade stocks and have good returns...

if you remember few years, ago people worry worried QE was gonna cause hyperinflation, yada, yada, end of world... look where we are now oil dropping like crazy?
so if you really think about it, if you watch too closely your gonna panic and make a bad decision.
pundits are always wrong.

The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it.  although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)

People are wondering why TLT goes up, people aren't buying for the coupon, their buying it for price movement and volatility... simple said its doing what it suppose to be doing...

in my opinion its great stocks are crashing, you want crazy volatility in bonds,stocks,gold  that's how the PP makes a good return..

[EdwardjK]

It's going to be a long year.

You're right.  2016 is a Leap Year!

[dragoncar]

I just don't watch the market.  Actually nowadays I don't even really check the forums.

I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss.  This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.

+1 on this...  i don't watch cnbc... sometimes i don't even watch the news... and i have my modified PP,  and trade stocks and have good returns...

if you remember few years, ago people worry worried QE was gonna cause hyperinflation, yada, yada, end of world... look where we are now oil dropping like crazy?
so if you really think about it, if you watch too closely your gonna panic and make a bad decision.
pundits are always wrong.

The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it.  although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)

People are wondering why TLT goes up, people aren't buying for the coupon, their buying it for price movement and volatility... simple said its doing what it suppose to be doing...

in my opinion its great stocks are crashing, you want crazy volatility in bonds,stocks,gold  that's how the PP makes a good return..

Care to share your modified PP allocation? Thanks

66/33?

[buddtholomew]

Equities may continue to fall further, but at market close I am re-balancing retirement accounts back to 70/30.
Exchanging 3.5% of total portfolio from stable value to the following mutual funds.

VINIX (S&P500),
FSEVX (Extended Market),
AVFIX (SC Value)
VWILX (International LC)

PP stability has enabled me to more aggressively purchase stocks during the recent decline.

[Libertarian666]

The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it.  although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)

So in other words, you say the PP is a wonderful concept that prevents panic, but you won't follow it. 

[Reub]

Equities may continue to fall further, but at market close I am re-balancing retirement accounts back to 70/30.
Exchanging 3.5% of total portfolio from stable value to the following mutual funds.

VINIX (S&P500),
FSEVX (Extended Market),
AVFIX (SC Value)
VWILX (International LC)

PP stability has enabled me to more aggressively purchase stocks during the recent decline.

Why not wait for some sort of stability before rebalancing back into equities? Some of my sources are saying that stocks still look bearish.

[buddtholomew]

Equities may continue to fall further, but at market close I am re-balancing retirement accounts back to 70/30.
Exchanging 3.5% of total portfolio from stable value to the following mutual funds.

VINIX (S&P500),
FSEVX (Extended Market),
AVFIX (SC Value)
VWILX (International LC)

PP stability has enabled me to more aggressively purchase stocks during the recent decline.

Why not wait for some sort of stability before rebalancing back into equities? Some of my sources are saying that stocks still look bearish.

20 years from now it won't matter much.
3.5% is the 1st of several re-balancing moves when/if necessary.
50% decline in new money added is less than 2% loss of entire portfolio. Not significant.
Know I will never catch the bottom.

[sk55]

I just don't watch the market.  Actually nowadays I don't even really check the forums.

I made it through the last crash through automatic investment and ignorant bliss.  This resulted in some pretty fantastic returns.

+1 on this...  i don't watch cnbc... sometimes i don't even watch the news... and i have my modified PP,  and trade stocks and have good returns...

if you remember few years, ago people worry worried QE was gonna cause hyperinflation, yada, yada, end of world... look where we are now oil dropping like crazy?
so if you really think about it, if you watch too closely your gonna panic and make a bad decision.
pundits are always wrong.

The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it.  although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)

People are wondering why TLT goes up, people aren't buying for the coupon, their buying it for price movement and volatility... simple said its doing what it suppose to be doing...

in my opinion its great stocks are crashing, you want crazy volatility in bonds,stocks,gold  that's how the PP makes a good return..

Care to share your modified PP allocation? Thanks

50/50    SPY/TLT 

i use ETFs sometimes i'll turn it into a covered call... if its down to generate income..

and i keep a decent amount cash on the side for dips...

[Libertarian666]

+1 on this...  i don't watch cnbc... sometimes i don't even watch the news... and i have my modified PP,  and trade stocks and have good returns...

if you remember few years, ago people worry worried QE was gonna cause hyperinflation, yada, yada, end of world... look where we are now oil dropping like crazy?
so if you really think about it, if you watch too closely your gonna panic and make a bad decision.
pundits are always wrong.

The PP is such a wonderful concept, that you really won't panic if you truly understand it.  although i don't agree on holding gold anymore (but that's my opinion)

People are wondering why TLT goes up, people aren't buying for the coupon, their buying it for price movement and volatility... simple said its doing what it suppose to be doing...

in my opinion its great stocks are crashing, you want crazy volatility in bonds,stocks,gold  that's how the PP makes a good return..

Care to share your modified PP allocation? Thanks

50/50    SPY/TLT 

i use ETFs sometimes i'll turn it into a covered call... if its down to generate income..

and i keep a decent amount cash on the side for dips...

So in other words, a 50-50 Boglehead allocation.

Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it has nothing to do with the PP.

[lordmetroid]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

[MediumTex]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

Why?

If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.

[lordmetroid]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

Why?

If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.

I already sold my stocks at the top, in due time I will of course return to stocks when the trend has reversed but meanwhile I will either have my capital in cash or I should take a chance with some fixed income.

[Reub]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

Why?

If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.

Are you guaranteeing that it's done going down?

[var]

Care to share your modified PP allocation? Thanks

50/50    SPY/TLT 

i use ETFs sometimes i'll turn it into a covered call... if its down to generate income..

and i keep a decent amount cash on the side for dips...

So in other words, a 50-50 Boglehead allocation.

Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it has nothing to do with the PP.

of course it does i am using the gyroscopic essence of the PP... except gold...  i think i am happy with my 5 year return..  how much has the pure PP (perm or prpfx) returned in the last 5 year return..

[var]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

you could be right with TLT... wait for it to have a down day.

[var]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

Why?

If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.

stocks are attractive.. however i think there a good chance to that will test aug 15 low... i rather wait and see what happens before i jump in

[dutchtraffic]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

Why?

If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.

Stocks are still insanely overvalued.

[MediumTex]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

Why?

If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.

Stocks are still insanely overvalued.

But they are less overvalued than they were when everyone thought buying them was a good idea.

The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates the stock market the most, but it's not a terrible time to buy when only most people hate the stock market a lot.

[ochotona]

The Shiller PE ratio today is still 23.82. That's as high as prior tops in the 1960s, and early 1900s. Bad bear markets used to get us down to about 7, last time was early 1980s, but here we are still stuck in the crotch of a tree. To go from 23.82 to 7, stocks would have to fall 75% from where they are now. Now, whether than happens in 2016, 2020, or 2030, no one can say, or will it ever happen? The early 1930s bear to early 1980s was 50 years, a long time.

[var]

Why?

If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.

Stocks are still insanely overvalued.

But they are less overvalued than they were when everyone thought buying them was a good idea.

The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates the stock market the most, but it's not a terrible time to buy when only most people hate the stock market a lot.

+1

Yup buy on nice pull backs that said. A few more down days I'll start buying. 
That's why don't even watch CNBC they'll talk PE. China down. Etc.  then at some point
You'll be. In panic.

Also correct me if I am wrong.  Boggle heads don't use TLT.  they rather use diversified bond fund. 
I think TLT is a key pp criteria.

[ochotona]

+1

Yup buy on nice pull backs that said. A few more down days I'll start buying. 
That's why don't even watch CNBC they'll talk PE. China down. Etc.  then at some point
You'll be. In panic.

Also correct me if I am wrong.  Boggle heads don't use TLT.  they rather use diversified bond fund. 
I think TLT is a key pp criteria.

So how will you feel in October 2016 if the shares you buy next week "on the dips" based on gut feel are worth half of what you paid for them?

My guess is, you'll be selling them to me at that time.

[jafs]

I think combining a broad stock market index fund with a long term treasury fund uses part of the PP philosophy, just not all of it.

Those are assets that have very low correlation, and also both have long term expected positive growth.  And, one can combine their use with a band re-balancing strategy.

We just got everything out of the markets and into money market funds in our retirement accounts, because we're getting closer to retirement, but if I ever have a bit of money to play with and want to invest it, I'll probably use something like 50/50 itot/tlt and re-balance annually if they get past 60/40 either way.

One could call it a "partial PP".

[dualstow]

I am thinking it might be a good time to go TLT and IAU now.

I wish you wouldn't say that, because I need to buy gold as part of a rebalancing act. Knowing that you're going to crash and burn with your market timing, I don't like that I'm doing the same thing as you, even if it's for a different reason.

Edit: adding friendly, post-softening smiley: 

[jafs]