Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

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Desert
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by Desert » Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:20 am

dualstow wrote: TIPSymandias
Still brilliant.  :)

Breaking Bad (and poets) has influenced this board so much.
Image
;D  I hadn't seen that one before.  "Other Income." 
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by Pointedstick » Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:21 am

Hehe, where is that from?
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by rocketdog » Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:12 am

MediumTex wrote:
dutchtraffic wrote:
MediumTex wrote: Why?

If anything, now seems like the time to be buying stocks, not selling them.
Stocks are still insanely overvalued.
But they are less overvalued than they were when everyone thought buying them was a good idea.

The best time to buy stocks is when everyone hates the stock market the most, but it's not a terrible time to buy when only most people hate the stock market a lot.
I advise any investor to adopt a contrarian attitude, at least to some extent.  Nobody likes to see the value of their portfolio go down, but unless you need the cash flow you have to look at it as "Everything is on sale!"  As long as you're still dollar-cost averaging into your investments, don't sweat the short-term gyrations. 

After all, do you waste time tracking the daily changes in the value of your house and then fret whenever it dips? (assuming you're not about to sell it, of course.)
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by rocketdog » Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:24 am

ochotona wrote:
var wrote: +1

Yup buy on nice pull backs that said. A few more down days I'll start buying. 
That's why don't even watch CNBC they'll talk PE. China down. Etc.  then at some point
You'll be. In panic.

Also correct me if I am wrong.  Boggle heads don't use TLT.  they rather use diversified bond fund. 
I think TLT is a key pp criteria.
So how will you feel in October 2016 if the shares you buy next week "on the dips" based on gut feel are worth half of what you paid for them?

My guess is, you'll be selling them to me at that time.
See, I'm a contrarian, so whenever that happens I think "Sweet!  It's even more attractively priced now!  Time for me to stock up!"  I never sell an investment at a loss.  I have the patience of a saint and can wait years for my bets to pay off.  That's the beauty of the market cycle: it's a cycle.

That happened when I bought some VDE about a year ago, partly as an inflation hedge.  Oil of course has tanked since then, so as soon as it seems to bottom out I'll scoop up some more VDE at firesale prices to lower my cost basis.  Might be a while before it bounces back, but I've got a 10+ year time horizon, and the world's energy needs are not about to diminish.

Who says you can't catch a falling knife?  ;D
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by technovelist » Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:27 pm

rocketdog wrote:
Who says you can't catch a falling knife?  ;D
I don't think anyone says you can't, just that you shouldn't.

Not that I'm against being a contrarian, of course.
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by var » Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:34 pm

ochotona wrote:
var wrote: +1

Yup buy on nice pull backs that said. A few more down days I'll start buying. 
That's why don't even watch CNBC they'll talk PE. China down. Etc.  then at some point
You'll be. In panic.

Also correct me if I am wrong.  Boggle heads don't use TLT.  they rather use diversified bond fund. 
I think TLT is a key pp criteria.
So how will you feel in October 2016 if the shares you buy next week "on the dips" based on gut feel are worth half of what you paid for them?

My guess is, you'll be selling them to me at that time.
I will be fine that's what asset allocations about.  If spy goes down and Tlt will go up.
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by var » Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:54 pm

My guess.  We get a big nasty drop.  And we go right back up again. 
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by MediumTex » Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:12 pm

Professor Disorientation wrote: In Aesop's fable of the Tortoise and the Hare, the tortoise wins the race. Sure the hare is confident, faster and flashy. But the Tortoise is disciplined, focused and unfazed by the hare. I liken the PP to the Tortoise.
What is less well known about the story of the tortoise and the hare is that the hare was one of the worst trash talkers in the whole forest racing league and played mind games with his opponents relentlessly.

In the lead up to the race with the hare, it's reported that the tortoise traveled with an entourage of professional greyhound racing dogs, each of whom wore a collar with a rabbit's foot dangling from it.  Prior to the race starting, the tortoise is reported to have said: "I feel like a great chef preparing to make a giant batch of rabbit stew."

During the race, when the tortoise finally passed a mentally and physically exhausted hare gasping for breath, the tortoise is reported to have whispered in his ear: "Don't worry, the dogs will be here soon."
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by dualstow » Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:33 pm

Pointedstick wrote: Hehe, where is that from?
I can't remember. That link is just to photobucket, but if I can find where I posted it a couple of months ago on this forum, it's probably the link to the original, which I will edit in below. First saw it on reddit.

EDIT: I googled

Code: Select all

finance app heisenberg other income
The real link would make your iTunes open with a message that it's available in the UK but not US store, so here's a link to a blurb about it instead:
http://www.blameitonthevoices.com/2015/ ... f-day.html
Last edited by dualstow on Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Desert
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by Desert » Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:41 pm

var wrote: I will be fine that's what asset allocations about.  If spy goes down and Tlt will go up.
That's not always the case, though it's been pretty consistent in the past few decades of declining interest rates.  Before that period, the correlations weren't negative, they were closer to zero. 
Our greatest fear should not be of failure, but of succeeding at something that doesn't really matter. 
- D.L. Moody

Diversification means always having to say you're sorry.
var
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by var » Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:20 pm

Desert wrote:
var wrote: I will be fine that's what asset allocations about.  If spy goes down and Tlt will go up.
That's not always the case, though it's been pretty consistent in the past few decades of declining interest rates.  Before that period, the correlations weren't negative, they were closer to zero.
of course.  i checked it out in bogglehead simba spreadsheet. nothing perfect, but its close enough for me...

i dont want over tinker with my AA.
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Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!

Post by Jack Jones » Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:34 pm

rocketdog wrote: I never sell an investment at a loss.  I have the patience of a saint and can wait years for my bets to pay off.
This is a common speculating mistake that Harry discusses in "Why the Best-Laid Plans...".
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