Depressed

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Reub
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Re: Depressed

Post by Reub » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:41 pm

Seriously though, have you considered adding a little more cash to your portfolio to help you sleep better at night?
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buddtholomew
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Re: Depressed

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:44 pm

I'm swimming in cash, but have purchased gold over and over and over again. Not buying more.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Depressed

Post by dragoncar » Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:55 pm

buddtholomew wrote: I'm swimming in cash, but have purchased gold over and over and over again. Not buying more.
F'in gold.  Looks like my 2016 nut will be mostly gold.  Not sure if I should let the allocation stay low, but I just know that will be poor market timing
Reub
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Re: Depressed

Post by Reub » Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:33 pm

buddtholomew wrote: I'm swimming in cash, but have purchased gold over and over and over again. Not buying more.
budd, are you reaching the band in equities? If you need to rebalance but don't want more gold then you might diversify into a different investment vehicle like Vanguard Wellesley. I am also investing using Hedgeable in their highest risk portfolio and am very happy there because they really manage your risk well while allowing most of the upside gains. Even Vanguard Wellington might work if you seek more equity exposure.
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Re: Depressed

Post by barrett » Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:19 pm

I don't have much new money to throw at the PP so I'll probably just pick up a few gold coins and call it a day.

The bands aren't sacred, budd. If you hate gold, just hold less of it. From what I think I know, you still have lots of good years left and an awesome career.

"Swimming in cash" sounds pretty nice from where I stand. It may yet end up being the least bad asset of 2015!
Reub
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Re: Depressed

Post by Reub » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:09 pm

You can also rebalance but leave whatever funds are designated towards gold in cash and wait for a relative strength buy signal to deploy it.
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Re: Depressed

Post by barrett » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:17 pm

Reub wrote: You can also rebalance but leave whatever funds are designated towards gold in cash and wait for a relative strength buy signal to deploy it.
This is a really good idea for someone who hates an asset. If it goes up from here and adds some value to your portfolio, you are happy. If it goes down further, you feel smart for having waited.

I would just add that at a certain point owning an asset really can't impact a portfolio if one doesn't hold a high enough percentage. The standard advice that a lot of money people seem to throw out about "5% in gold" just seems too low. Or as my grandmother once said, "If you're going to eat beans, eat beans!"
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ochotona
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Re: Depressed

Post by ochotona » Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:00 pm

The married puts thing is used by Meb Faber's Value and Momentum ETF to protect against market declines. I called up Cambria and talked to the man himself about it!

Just FYI for you people who are getting depressed over gold, I'm now executing a slow buy program for 2016, with an acceleration factor as the price goes lower. Buy 1 oz a quarter based on oversold technicals, if below $900/oz then 2 oz a quarter, if below $800/oz then 3 oz per quarter, etc., until my budget is used up.
Last edited by ochotona on Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dualstow
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Re: Depressed

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:56 pm

buddtholomew wrote: Is anyone on this board approaching a tolerance band and do you intend to rebalance?
Things are so zig zaggy that it would be untrue so say I'm approaching a band, really. But, Stocks and Bonds are both at 27%. Gold is at 20%. I thought I could wait for 15%, but if it drops much further, coinciding with new cash coming in this January, I will most definitely be rebalancing.

I would like to do a coin at a time like Ochotona, but I get a much better deal if I buy 10 at a time. That's a lot of money (which is why I almost never buy physical gold!)
Last edited by dualstow on Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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technovelist
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Re: Depressed

Post by technovelist » Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:50 pm

ochotona wrote: The married puts thing is used by Meb Faber's Value and Momentum ETF to protect against market declines. I called up Cambria and talked to the man himself about it!

Just FYI for you people who are getting depressed over gold, I'm now executing a slow buy program for 2016, with an acceleration factor as the price goes lower. Buy 1 oz a quarter based on oversold technicals, if below $900/oz then 2 oz a quarter, if below $800/oz then 3 oz per quarter, etc., until my budget is used up.
When it gets down to zero, then I'll really load up!
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Depressed

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:15 pm

Feeling better about the pp today, Budd?
I shouldn't even ask, b/c it's so ephemeral, but still.

S&P down 1.78%
Dow down > 2%

TLT up .56%
GTU up 1.12%
VENEZUELA: U.K. Judge Rejects Maduro’s Bid for Gold
Professor Disorientation
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Re: Depressed

Post by Professor Disorientation » Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:52 pm

My PP was up .01 today when the market took a mild beating. I know a lot of people are uncomfortable about gold. But the way I see it is that the asset class that is despised today will be prized tomorrow.

Michael
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