The Next Asset to Perform?

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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The next asset to outperform and carry the Permanent Portfolio?

CASH aka $
4
14%
Stocks aka VTI
7
24%
Long Bonds aka TLT
3
10%
Gold aka AUI (or GLAD but no...)
15
52%
My Uncle's Wisdom Asset Allocation after a few adult beverages....
0
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Total votes: 29
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4x4
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The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by 4x4 » Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:02 am

Recently I have been living in fear, complete terror.  Or maybe not.  I have been recommending, well not recommending much actually.  I have been finding the correction I anticipated in the recent past has come to pass with most things returning to the mean.  Of course as someone originally measuring things with the USD measuring stick, the question became much more involved and interesting once I started with an understanding of true markets, the nature of money and the true assets evolved.

Gold - peaked after my assertion, likely to continue down, possible reversal depending on upcoming political influence (rate hike or not) on financial otherwise efficient markets

Stocks - up a bit, many feel are "toppy," hard to disagree, hard to not

Bonds - many calling for everything from implications related to economies such as Japan, demographic cliffs, as well as that relating to complete destruction based on any one of the predictions by whom ever

Cash - umm, less (investments elsewhere) is more?

So, where are you putting your assets (aka money or dollars for those not financially liberated :)

Of course PP'ers and Bogelheads try to dissuade market timing in theory and there is a lot to this this line of thinking, but if it does or does not affect your actions, do you not at least have opinions to share?

(Post, be famous later, laugh at yourself and prove the ineffective nature of market timers, brag to your grandchildren, participate for kick, wtf.)
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I Shrugged
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by I Shrugged » Sun Nov 29, 2015 7:27 am

I'm not moving any money but my answer is gold.  Gold is dead, right?
frommi
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by frommi » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:56 am

TLT, deflation coming closer because of the FED action in december.
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MachineGhost
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by MachineGhost » Sun Nov 29, 2015 1:46 pm

frommi wrote: TLT, deflation coming closer because of the FED action in december.
That makes no sense.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
fi50@fi2023
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by fi50@fi2023 » Sun Nov 29, 2015 1:50 pm

This answer doesn't belong here but debt retirement (mortgages) seems attractive here.
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by frommi » Mon Nov 30, 2015 7:27 am

MachineGhost wrote:
frommi wrote: TLT, deflation coming closer because of the FED action in december.
That makes no sense.
Why?
Higher short term rates = credit more expensive = lower spending = lower inflation = lower long term rates
or
Higher short term rates = higher dollar = deflation (this one is already going on since last year)
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MachineGhost
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:53 am

frommi wrote: Why?
Higher short term rates = credit more expensive = lower spending = lower inflation = lower long term rates
or
Higher short term rates = higher dollar = deflation (this one is already going on since last year)
Higher short term rates = economy growing = higher borrowing = higher spending = higher long term rates = higher savings = higher capital flows = higher dollar = reshoring of offshored manufacturing = higher employment = higher wages.  All Is Well.

I believe this is how the Fed wants to view it.  Do you disagree? 
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by frommi » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:43 am

MachineGhost wrote: Higher short term rates = economy growing = higher borrowing = higher spending = higher long term rates = higher savings = higher capital flows = higher dollar = reshoring of offshored manufacturing = higher employment = higher wages.  All Is Well.

I believe this is how the Fed wants to view it.  Do you disagree?
Yes, because the FED is missing that we are in a deleveraging like in 1937. One year from now they will talk about QE4.  :)

EDIT: And btw. this poll clearly shows that nobody has this on the agenda. The majority is nearly always wrong.
Last edited by frommi on Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:14 pm

frommi wrote: Yes, because the FED is missing that we are in a deleveraging like in 1937. One year from now they will talk about QE4.  :)

EDIT: And btw. this poll clearly shows that nobody has this on the agenda. The majority is nearly always wrong.
I don't disagree with you but I asked if you disgaree if that is how the Fed views it, so I'm guessing you do agree.

Don't forget we could always have a "soft landing" and rebound.  It would be annoying but it has happened many times before when investors got real bearish.

1937 was primarily fiscal austerity though, not raising the yield floor that banks bother to make loans above by a measly .25%.  I don't think it will make a one bit of a difference to the real economy.  I'm more concerned about the investor reaction to the increase as perceptions is reality.  They could treat it as "Tight Money" or "Inflation", either one which will be bad for stocks and bonds (and extend the PP torture).  Or they may shrug it off and continue into orgasmic "Prosperity" glory and take out the 2000 valuation highs.  My money stays dry until I see clarity.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: The Next Asset to Perform?

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 30, 2015 3:04 pm

I'll guess "Still stocks."
we have arrived at a situation in which well-intentioned liberal people often can’t bring themselves to say that lawless violence is wrong. —Gary Morson ,WSJ
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