Mathjak's Market Calls

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Tom
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Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by Tom » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:04 pm

Let's do an experiment.  Since Mathjak seems to know the appropriate mix of assets to hold at all times and the correct times to get in and out of them, let's track it!  Mathjak, please post your current allocation pick and let us know when it changes.  We'll track it against the PP.  Only what's said here as to what you're actually doing will count - not offhanded comments in other threads that can later be cherry picked - it's not official unless it's said here!

Let's see what happens!
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:01 pm

the version as it stands now : 09/27 was last update  since it uses  managed funds . it will be lower after today of course .

fidelity contra .  15% up 1.38% ytd

fidelity blue chip growth FBGRX 15%  up .70% ytd

-vanguard total market index vti 10%  minus  - 4.69 ytd

vanguard extended market index vxf  5%  minus 4.3% ytd

vanguard veu all world index etf  5%  minus 7.17

that is the equity side.

the bond side uses

vanguard admiral total bond fund 25% - up .71

fidelity floating rate high yield 10% up 1.31 ytd

vanguard bsv short term bond 10%    up 1.24%

vanguard vtip short term inflation proof bond etf 5%  up  .10 ytd
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by goodasgold » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote: the version as it stands now : 09/27 was last update  since it uses  managed funds . it will be lower after today of course .

fidelity contra .  15% up 1.38% ytd

fidelity blue chip growth FBGRX 15%  up .70% ytd

-vanguard total market index vti 10%  minus  - 4.69 ytd

vanguard extended market index vxf  5%  minus 4.3% ytd

vanguard veu all world index etf  5%  minus 7.17

that is the equity side.

the bond side uses

vanguard admiral total bond fund 25% - up .71

fidelity floating rate high yield 10% up 1.31 ytd

vanguard bsv short term bond 10%    up 1.24%

vanguard vtip short term inflation proof bond etf 5%  up  .10 ytd
Have you worked out your cumulative profit/loss YTD? And what market conditions would cause you to ditch this portfolio and adopt another one?
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:08 pm

no , because i switched portfolio's in june- july .  i was using the fidelity insight models for decades  up until june when i thought i would use the pp.

after a few days of watching the pp and re-evaluating things i decided not to go tht route .

my feeling was with weak equity returns expected i did not want the other parts of the portfolio  grabbing them by the collar and yanking them back . so i put my own model together  since fidelity insight, which i was using  did not offer a  50/50 MIX  I WAS forced  to run two models a 70/30 mix and a 30/70 mix blended together  to get the 50/50 mix i wanted for retirement and that was to cumbersome  since a few funds overlapped .  it was easier to just make up my own model .

but if you want make it easy , just track the above ytd  that way we can standardize against the pp year to date ..


by the way , i heard an interview today with michael cuggino from the permanent portfolio on bloomberg radio .  they asked how he is responding to events these days .

his answer was improving quality and shortening up duration's on bonds .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:45 pm

I'm a little confused since the PP is handily beating a 50/50 allocation YTD. The PP is not positive, but its certainly less negative.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:52 pm

don't be so sure about that , do the math . don't forget  these funds were way  higher and although we gave up  the gains we are not negative to badly . blue chip growth and contra were way up  well above the index funds before falling and they stayed positive right up until today . TLT is negative for the year . the shorter term bond funds are still up .

the  index funds  and veu were negative but the rest was all slightly positive  up until today .


while yes the total fall would be more the gains provided a much bigger cushion for the fall .


but the down turn is not where the model should shine . it is in the recovery once we hit bottom
.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:57 pm

mathjak107 wrote: don't be so sure about that , do the math . don't forget  these funds were way  higher and although we gave up  the gains we are not negative to badly . blue chip growth and contra were way up  well above the index funds before falling and they stayed positive right up until today . TLT is negative for the year . the shorter term bond funds are still up .

the  index funds  and veu were negative but the rest was all slightly positive  up until today .


while yes the total fall would be more the gains provided a much bigger cushion for the fall .

.
I'm sure of it. Hint: I'm not including the blue chip growth and contrafund in my analysis.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:59 pm

well do the math if you insist .  i bet the pp is down 3% or better and i think i will average out today in the minus 2% range . but the fall should be greater . but recovery should be a whole lot faster and greater . it is expected ta 50/50 mi should fall farther ..  want to bet who turns positive first ?
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:00 pm

mathjak107 wrote: well do the math if you insist .  i bet the pp is down 3% or better and i think i will average out today in the minus 2% range .
Don't assume you're talking to someone who hasn't done their homework. I maintain 2 portfolios and calculate YTD totals to 2 decimal places. I don't use range or better in my accounting.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:02 pm

well did you do mine which is what this is about ?
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:11 pm

mathjak107 wrote: well did you do mine which is what this is about ?
Nope. Don't really care to.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:17 pm

well then you can't comment because it isn't about just a 50/50 mix. a 50/50 mix is quite different from my model since the funds occasionally are  changed and it isn't strictly indexing which in comparison to the  managed funds i use sucked this year . .  in fact i may swap the 2 index funds out for fidelity export and multinational , they just got an excellent new manager and  also fidelity disciplined equity fund .

they too have a new manager and  i like the new weightings in the two funds compared to  vti and the extended market fund . but for now no change . .

fidelity blue chip growth and contra still had positive returns right up until today . the indexes were negative anywhere from 4 to 6% depending on the index .  big difference  between funds right now ,.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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