craigr wrote:
Reub wrote:
I'm not complaining about performance, but come on! Since 2009 aren't equities up 150-200%? Is the PP up anywhere close to that? Please let's not pretend that it's kicked any ass recently.
etfreplay.com shows 7.9% in 2009 vs. 26.5% for 100% S&P 500.
In 2010 it was 14.5% vs. 15.1% for S&P500.
In 2011 it was 11.5% vs. 1.9% for S&P500
Etc.
Nothing out of the ordinary is going on and volatility in the portfolio is about 50% of 100% stocks. It is all period dependent on the returns and what an investor happened to get.
A stock heavy portfolio is going to outperform a non-stock heavy portfolio after the worst market crash in 40 years followed by a sharp Fed induced recovery. There is no surprise here, but who was willing to bet the family farm in January 2009 on all of that happening?
So unless investors are going to jump into their time machine back to 2009, and put 100% of their money at the bottom of the market crash, the entire debate is meaningless.
if the times going forward really are different , then comparing all these charts of the past is useless and nothing more than driving and looking in the rear view mirror .
each time frame is just different enough that one day every trading system or strategy eventually reaches a point where what worked well in the past does not anymore . some just take a longer time than others to reach that point .
for the pp it may have taken a point where zero interest rates , high stock valuations and bonds that have little oomph left on their own and depend more on a calamity and flight to safety rather than the normal direction of rates in a long term fall. the fact gold responds to little at this point and falls more than it goes up has created the perfect storm . the 4-wheel drive system of the pp may be so bogged down it can't move itself .
we really will not know for a while whether the pp reached a point where by its own design it buried itself and can't get out because its own asset's are killing off the weaker pulls of the growth engine's that attempt to tow it but right now that appears to be the case to me . but to early to really tell for sure .
i just wouldn't use that rear view mirror to much and concentrate more on the road a head of me while i stayed the course with the pp at this stage as i would with any portfolio today . .
for those uncomfortable with what they see there are other conservative options out there to run with , no reason to second guess yourself or need reassurance from some others and then pick on them for not being there .
