Pointedstick wrote:
mathjak107 wrote:
seems like you are coming around to what i thought .
Yes, I think so. It's been a background worry of mine for several years, and it seems like things are playing out that way, sadly.
come with me to the dark side ....lol
the fact is you can do all the back testing you want but in the end it means nothing . reality is equity's have been a pretty reliable growth engine over long periods of time . that does not mean they will be in the future but you know what ? after the last drop and the amount of folks negative on equity's they still managed to recover faster than any other asset .
that is the key , they can recover , and lately do recover faster than anything else . they are the best house in the worst neighborhood .
everything else takes to long in cycle time or depends on things crapping the bed for extended periods of time .
that is something that in more modern times does not happen much so basically when the pp falls in a hole the opposing fighting makes it difficult to get out again .
while you may not like volatility , more and more i believe without the volatility on your side to move things out of the hole when down the lack of volatility is the real risk today .
even with the biggest stock rally's the pp is bogged down and out for the count even being down farther .
years back if equitys were down , just interest could make them whole again in a couple of years . but with that gone , and the potential for the usual growth engine equity's, tepid anything that diminishes what they can muster will manifest itself as a loss .
looking at my hypothetical pp i still track that is down 43k in 2 months time and i can't imagine how or when this will get positive again with even the biggest equity rally's being dragged down .
low volatility is one thing but when it leads to losses where there just seems little way of regaining your way back because your next step may be fighting the fed holding long term bonds in a rising rate climate . then there is gold still trying to figure out what it is supposed to respond to like an old man with dementia .
it seems the only way back to positive territory is to count on real negative EXTENDED CRAP happening . it can't even be short term stuff as things go right back again as soon as the panic wears off .
anyway just somethings to keep in the back of your mind as you think things through and debate with yourself what to do as i know many are at this point . .