The Desert Portfolio

[dualstow]

But, are you using a different tool than Tyler's? Whether I focus on short-term treasuries or the treasury money market (there is no T-Bill choice) I still get plenty of red in the 1970s.

[dualstow]

Thank you for that comprehensive reply! I never messed much with backtesting until Tyler's site came along. Before that, I mainly just looked at snapshots of what other people did with Simba's work at Bogleheads. Now, I put on ambient music and can't stop messing with these calculators.

With regard to what you said about gold, yes, the days of Harry's 'Coming Devaluation' book are long gone. But since 'Best Laid Plans' and 'Fail-Safe' came so much later, and he still recommended about 25% in gold in those, he must have still seen it as playing an important role  . Assets and portfolios continue to surprise, and gold may become The Great Multiplier Again. It was simply easier to think and talk about it when it was at 1700/oz. In the meantime, I like your idea of starting in '75 for simulations.

Ah, it seems like just yesterday many people were talking about how the miners were "on sale" and how it would be a great time to jump in. These days, nearly everything seems like it's on sale, and at the same time it doesn't feel like much of a bargain.

[ochotona]

I am thinking in particular about Newmont Mining (NEM), it has never been lower in inflation-adjusted price than right now, but my quotes only go back to the late 1970s. Schwab Equity Ratings has it as an "A" rated stock in an "F" rated industry. I think I'll buy some this week. It has been beat down -77% since its 2011 peak.

[dualstow]

Be careful. It can always be beaten down further.

[ochotona]

Be careful. It can always be beaten down further.

Sounds like many people here have had that experience!