ochotona wrote:
So gold and anti-gold can and have been falling simultaneously now... since February 1.
Yes, and they were both rising simultaneously for much of the 2000-2010 decade. Economics isn't billiards. People are not billiard balls. People try to anticipate developments. To avoid making the same mistake twice. Sometimes they are right, usually they are wrong.
You say that maybe the inflation connection is gone for gold. But actually, what is good about gold is precisely that there
is no connection. The quantity of gold in the world is unlinked to the amount of fiat paper money inflation taking place. Completely unlinked. No causality, no correlation, nothing. The European bank, the Fed, the IMF, all of these people can do anything they please and it will not affect the quantity of gold in the world. Only gold miners, gold panners, and deep sea wreck salvagers can move that needle, and they cannot move it very quickly at all, to say the least.
Thus it is a safe haven from inflation, just as it always has been.
Now, the idea that gold will actually
rise dramatically in value should there be big problems with the US dollar, that is not
apodictically true. It's not logically certain. It seems very, very likely, but it's possible this idea could be wrong, due to some kind of developments we have not foreseen. What is even more likely is that gold will at least not have its value undermined by inflation. It will just sit in the safe and continue to be gold.