MachineGhost's Research Resort

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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ILoveMoney wrote:Why would you add a fund like this to your portfolio MG and how much of it would you add?

When I saw it, it reminded me of PHDG (PowerShares S&P 500 Downside Hedged Portfolio ).

Someone talked on here a few years ago about using that in a XIV barbell.

I forgot if he was demoing it or if he had done it on a live account.
Because downside risk managed products have superior risk/reward performance if they're implemented correctly. Relying on perpetual positions in T-Bonds or Gold is inefficient at best, portfolio damaging at worse. They're for certain economic climates, not hedging Prosperity per se.

I'm keen on a 50%/50% split between momentum and value; the only question is where to put it? I don't think either qualifies as a core holding but are they specific enough to qualify as targeted sector? For now, I've tentatively assigned it to the latter. Just need to find a value fund that's downside risk managed. There is hybrid VAMO but given Mebane Faber's horrible track record with his overly simplistic approaches, I cast a wary eye on it.
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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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This could be an interesting investment strategy (or not):

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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The two takeaways from the below paper is that the best downside risk management technique is not being offered to retail (except via Hedgeable) but has a flaw in being stuck when the risk capital portion is wiped out and also that there is an optimal leverage-to-use formula based on market volatility. I also suspect using a discounted zero coupon bond might even be superior to using cash as it might allow more risk capital to be used compared to posting margin on futures.
CPPI has become a well-known investment concept that combines downside risk protection with participation on the upside in a risky asset. This strategy is typically implemented by investing an amount into the money market that accrues interest over time and ensures a certain capital protection level at a future point in time. To ensure upside participation, the remaining investment amount that is not needed to ensure the capital protection level is invested in the risky asset, typically allowing for a leveraged investment with the leverage multiple M. The use of a multiple greater than 1 implies the risk that the investment in the risky assets is wiped out completely and only the risk-free money market investment survives till maturity.

The derivation of the optimal leverage factor within a Black-Scholes model framework goes back to the seminal article of Merton (1971) and shows that (taking equities as a risky asset) the expected return maximizing multiple M (see formula (1)) is given by the premium of the expected equity-drift rate over the risk-free rate divided by the variance of the returns of the equity market. The optimal leverage factor ensures the optimal balance between leveraging the upside potential of the risky asset on one hand and the well-known adverse “buy high/sell low” effect due to the frequent rebalancing of the leveraged investment scheme on the other hand (for details, see Giese 2010).

Furthermore, Estep and Kritzmann (1988) have extended the basic concept of the CPPI to investment strategies that are not limited to a fixed maturity date. Instead, they consider a so-called time invariant proportional portfolio (TIPP) strategy with value It, where, analogous to the CPPI, the portfolio value exceeding the protection level Ft is invested in the risky asset (using a leverage multiplier M), whereas the amount Ft is invested in the risk-free money market. The crucial part of the methodology is the definition of a maximum drawdown limit 1-f, which the strategy can never exceed, where f denotes the protection level on the current portfolio value It. We assume that the floor is ratcheted using a fixed capital protection floor f<1, i.e., Ft is assumed to grow with the risk-free rate in time unless the investment scheme grows such that f times It reaches or surpasses the current floor Ft, in which case the floor is ratcheted to Ft = f It.

Consequently, (1-f) is the maximal drawdown that can occur at any given point in time, and therefore the factor f can also be interpreted as the minimum capital protection level at any given point in time.

It is interesting to note that Grossman and Zhou (1993) show that the expected return maximizing leverage factor M on the risky asset portion It -Ft for the TIPP strategy is (analogous to the CPPI strategy) given by the expected equity-drift rate over the risk-free rate divided by the variance of the returns of the equity market.

Both CCPI and TIPP models have led to a broad stream of academic research that we briefly summarize in the following without claiming completeness. To start with, the properties of continuous-time CPPI models are studied in Black and Perold (1992), Perold and Sharpe (1995), and Bookstaber and Langsam (2000). The development path from a standard CPPI to so-called optimized PPI and a comparison of the models involved can be found in Bertrand and Prigent (2002a). A theoretical extension related to models involving stochastic volatility and extreme value approaches is developed in Bertrand and Prigent (2002b, 2003), with more advanced downside-risk measures developed in Bertrand and Prigent (2011). Within the broad stream of research analyzing the risk and return profile of optimized PPI models (OPPI), we would like to mention the works of Cox and Huang (1989), Brennan and Schwartz (1989), Grossman and Villa (1989), Black and Perold (1992), Grossman and Zhou (1993, 1996), Basak (1995, 2002), Browne (1999), Tepla (2000, 2001) and El Karoui et al. (2005). Furthermore, more empirical simulation-based studies can be found in Cesari and Cremonini (2003) and Do and Faff (2004).

Although CPPI and TIPP strategies have become the catalyst of extensive academic research due to the fact that they allow for closed-form solutions as well as the application of optimization techniques, their practical importance is quite limited.

To be precise, apart from the CPPI—which has become a well-known model in the insurance industry—these models have had little success in the wider asset management community, particularly in the market for funds, ETFs and financial products in general.

At a first glance, this is quite surprising, since risk-reduction methodologies such as target-volatility strategies, low-beta strategies or minimum-variance strategies have become standard investment schemes in the asset management space, and are even available in the form of certificates or exchange-traded funds.

In fact, the TIPP strategy offers a more attractive risk-reduction mechanism in the form of an absolute drawdown protection level, whereas target-volatility, low-beta or minimum-variance strategies simply limit or reduce the volatility of the investment portfolio without necessarily limiting the drawdown in a serious market crash. In principle, this makes the TIPP strategy more appealing to investors in related financial products than volatility-reducing investment strategies.

http://www.etf.com/publications/journal ... nopaging=1
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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The answer leads us to the third reason why I believe in this framework: It addresses a major question facing many investors today — “how do I put it all together?”

Investors today have access to more market data and strategic information than at any other time in history. Yet from the perspective of the average investor, this huge volume of fragmented information presents a challenge — how should one actually implement everything?

So the third reason I’m advocating this framework is because it’s holistic. On one hand, the approach is broad and sturdy, rooted in respected, wealth-building investment principles. On the other hand, it’s strategic and intuitive, able to adapt to all sorts of market conditions. The result is a unified, complementary framework that can relieve investors of the handwringing and anxiety of “what’s the right strategy right now?”

If you’re an investor who’s struggled with generating long-term returns that make a real difference in your wealth, I believe this portfolio can help. If you want less anxiety during periods of heightened market volatility and drawdowns, I believe this portfolio can help. And if you’re unsure how to balance the simplicity of buy-and-hold with the various benefits of an active portfolio, I think the investing framework in this paper can help.

If that sounds like your type of investing, I hope you’ll read on.

http://www.cambriainvestments.com/wp-co ... _final.pdf
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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Where did you get these?
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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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Kbg wrote:Where did you get these?
As a journalist, I NEVER reveal my sources. Why do you want to know?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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MachineGhost wrote:
Kbg wrote:Where did you get these?
As a journalist, I NEVER reveal my sources. Why do you want to know?

LOL! How do you I know you aren't the PP Forum's Trumpster? Make stuff up and then deny you posted or meant it. ;)

Seriously, cool stuff was looking for a link to go check it out. That's all.
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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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Just donate a million dollars to The MachineGhost Foundation and you can get all of your answers. He runs a great foundation where at least ten cents of every dollar goes to help the needy.
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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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LOL, you guys crack me up!

https://extradash.com/
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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MangoMan wrote:Fidelity has a new momentum ETF [ticker: FDMO] that trades commission free on their platform.
Objective
The fund seeks to provide investment returns that correspond, before fees and expenses, generally to the performance of the Fidelity U.S. Momentum Factor IndexSM. Normally investing at least 80% of assets in securities included in the Fidelity U.S. Momentum Factor Index, which is designed to reflect the performance of stocks of large and mid-capitalization U.S. companies that exhibit positive momentum signals.
https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/ ... mbols=FDMO
Very cool. They're rolling a out a line of commission-free factor ETF's:

https://www.fidelity.com/about-fidelity ... based-ETFs
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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Here's a new and free interesting retirement planner...

https://www.newretirement.com/
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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MachineGhost wrote:For all those who wondered, below is my Prosperity allocation. It is a diversified mix of strategies, holding period lengths, risks and returns.

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I have modified the above modified Wealth Pyramid levels to be in the below order and weights to take into account both time-in-market and intrinsic risk:

Startup Investing (3-10 years) 1.25%
Sector-Focused Investments (2-10 years) 2.5%
Blue Chip Outperformers (1-5 years) 2.50%
Diversified Core Portfolio (Forever) 3.75%
Short Term Trading (0-9 months) 5%
Conservative Income (1-3 years) 10%

I was tempted to put a PP within a PP into Diversified Core Portfolio but I think that would be rather silly but fun nonsense.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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Blue is growth. Black is value.

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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Excellent! And very timely too!
The Elkhorn Fundamental Commodity Strategy ETF is an actively-managed ETF that seeks to provide investment returns that are highly correlated to the Dow Jones RAFI® Commodity Index by investing in exchange-traded commodity futures contracts and other commodity-linked instruments. The Dow Jones RAFI® Commodity Index offers an alternative beta strategy that uses price momentum and roll yield to outperform the broad market. The ETF is designed to be a fundamental factor-weighted, broad-market commodity strategy with a modified dynamic roll. The fund's assets will also be invested in a short duration portfolio of highly liquid, high quality bonds to collateralize exposure and target a total return which exceeds that of the Dow Jones RAFI® Commodity Index.

http://www.marketwired.com/press-releas ... 160317.htm
Here's a short rundown of how RAFI Commodity works... they equal weight Metal, Energy and Hard/Softs sectors. Then for the individual commodities within each sector they use the 5-year average volume to determine the base weights. Then they combine implied roll yield and momentum to adjust those base weights to deal with the normal conundrum of negative momentum with backwardation (positive roll yield) and positve momentum with contango (negative roll yield). And lastly, they use various criteria to decide where on the futures contract curve to actually purchase so they're not gamed/arbitraged by front-runners. It is also long-only so there is actually a correlation with inflation. Basically, the index fixes all of the flaws that have plaqued the first generation of managed future funds to date.

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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MangoMan wrote:Sounds like an interesting model, but the ETF has a really high ER at 0.75%.
That is cheap for a managed futures strategy. The first gen ones were around upper 1% to lower 2%. Managed futures are great because they're like gold in that they have a persistent negative correlation to stocks and bonds. Without knowing about the PP, wise investors would use stock, bonds and managed futures via CTA's. Now you don't need the CTA and their expensive 2%/20% fees.

Once I have enough data to calcualte risk stats, I'll give it some $ from Real. Diversification never killed anybody. Speaking of which, I wonder how the "rebalancing bonus" would work on inttra-asset diversification -- never looked into it. Keeping costs down seems a challenge when rebalancing.

I consider .75% to be the max to pay for any kind of fund though. For that much it damn well better do something than just weight stocks differently like virtually all of the "smart beta" junx. Like offer downside protection.

Next peg to hammer... quantitative duration for Treasuries. Screw the Gross's and Grundlach's of the world.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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The last sentence is operative:
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And here's another take on gold:
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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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This shows the effect of using diferent types of "cash" for calculating absolute momentum in Antonacci's GEM:

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The good news is that using extended ETFs back to the 1970's tracks virtually the uninvestable indexes of GEM (although I don't believe the data source was different between the two). It doesn't prove that GEM isn't curve fit based on the specific symbol universe used but at least it holds up using real-world funds.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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It looks like the portfolio with SHV in the absolute momentum signal missed one timely reentry in 1991 but was otherwise effectively identical to the one checking BIL.

Here's the original post, which also charts the extended ETF to index comparison MG referenced: http://indexswingtrader.blogspot.com/20 ... h-gem.html
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Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort

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Here's the rebalancing bands optimal for each asset rather than all as a single group:

Stocks 12.02%
Bonds 16.54%
Gold 14.15%
Cash 4.37%

This adds 1.31% CAGR with about a 1.17% decrease in MaxDD over vanilla since 1969. Checked on a yearly basis.

The cash band seems a little odd but as that is 1-year T-Bills, I imagine they rarely move much.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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