Spreadsheet

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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fishdrzig
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Spreadsheet

Post by fishdrzig » Fri Jul 03, 2015 6:36 pm

Can someone post a link to the most current spreadsheet for the 4 x 25 HBPP.  Thank you
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by EdwardjK » Fri Jul 03, 2015 7:21 pm

What exactly are you after?
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by fishdrzig » Fri Jul 03, 2015 7:38 pm

Just a workable rebalancing spreadsheet
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by MediumTex » Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:28 am

There is a stickied post at the top of the page with PP spreadsheets.
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by fishdrzig » Sat Jul 04, 2015 1:24 pm

Kind of hard to follow and now is two years old.  Anyone have a link to a current one?
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mathjak107
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:06 am

i would love to be able to see the growth of 10k from 1987 in dollars with the 4 part pp for comparisons .

i did a quick comparison since 1982 of  prpfx  vs some other  conservative fund like fidelity puritan . i have to say the price you paid  waiting for that next  calamity was quite high.

don't forget we had 3 major crashes ,  more recessions than i care to count as well as having in this  time frame one event that almost took down the entire financial system..

10k in prpfx grew to 71k today while puritan grew to 235k  .


prpfrx vs one of the most popular conservative funds wellesly income was 71k since 1982 vs 295k today.


these differences really have to stop and make you think if giving up so much of a your nest egg  protecting against something that may never happen is really worth it.

you could lose more than 50% of what you gained  in wellesley and still be way a head of planning for that 50% drop.

yes , to some the protection from the unknown may be worth it , i get that . but that protection can also be quite hazardous to your wealth in itself.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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sophie
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by sophie » Sun Jul 05, 2015 7:17 am

I've been using the same spreadsheet for more than two years.  I assure you it is not subject to bit decay  ;D
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Desert
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by Desert » Sun Jul 05, 2015 7:58 am

mathjak107 wrote: i would love to be able to see the growth of 10k from 1987 in dollars with the 4 part pp for comparisons .
Since 1987,

The PP returned a CAGR of 7.04% with the worst year -2.0%.  Final balance $67,000. 
A 60/40 Bogle returned a CAGR of 9.16% with the worst year -20.0%.  Final balance $116,500. 
Our greatest fear should not be of failure, but of succeeding at something that doesn't really matter. 
- D.L. Moody

Diversification means always having to say you're sorry.
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mathjak107
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:32 am

here are my results just following the fidelity insight newsletter which i have been from 1987 .

it just uses nothing special fidelity funds, we are talking over 220k compared to 67k for the pp.

http://www.fidelityinsight.com/about/pe ... f2012.html
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mathjak107
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:34 am

Desert wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: i would love to be able to see the growth of 10k from 1987 in dollars with the 4 part pp for comparisons .
Since 1987,

The PP returned a CAGR of 7.04% with the worst year -2.0%.  Final balance $67,000. 
A 60/40 Bogle returned a CAGR of 9.16% with the worst year -20.0%.  Final balance $116,500.
now keep in mind that time frame included lots of nasty events including the almost  collapse of the financial system .  116k vs 67k is quite a price to pay for protection against the remote chane of Armageddon .

i won't even compare it to the results my newsletter got , which by the way were no different than any other new letters of the day.  fidelity monitor did even better before they merged with fidelity insight.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Desert
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by Desert » Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:05 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Desert wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: i would love to be able to see the growth of 10k from 1987 in dollars with the 4 part pp for comparisons .
Since 1987,

The PP returned a CAGR of 7.04% with the worst year -2.0%.  Final balance $67,000. 
A 60/40 Bogle returned a CAGR of 9.16% with the worst year -20.0%.  Final balance $116,500.
now keep in mind that time frame included lots of nasty events including the almost  collapse of the financial system .  116k vs 67k is quite a price to pay for protection against the remote chane of Armageddon .

i won't even compare it to the results my newsletter got , which by the way were no different than any other new letters of the day.  fidelity monitor did even better before they merged with fidelity insight.
While we're backtesting, check out the performance of small cap value:

The PP returned a CAGR of 7.04% with the worst year -2.0%.  Final balance $67,000. 
A 60/40 Bogle returned a CAGR of 9.16% with the worst year -20.0%.  Final balance $116,500.
Small cap value returned a CAGR of 11.28% with the worst year -37.0%.  Final balance $199,500.

Or, if you'd gone with a 50/50 split between small cap value and emerging markets:
CAGR of 12.88% with the worst year -42.4%.  Final balance $297,400.
Our greatest fear should not be of failure, but of succeeding at something that doesn't really matter. 
- D.L. Moody

Diversification means always having to say you're sorry.
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mathjak107
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Re: Spreadsheet

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:08 am

i was a bit on the conservative side ,i aimed for the volatility of the s&p 500 but with better returns
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