New PPer needs guidance.

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Pointedstick
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:58 pm

If your definition of "financial plane crashing" is "portfolio ever declines in value," then I suppose I can see how a YTD 0.5% nominal loss is a plane crash.
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by iwealth » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:10 pm

Since the start of the year, the portfolio is down what, 0.75% this year?

So, the equivalent of flying along at 30,000 feet and plummeting to 29,775.
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by dragoncar » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:10 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Matthew19 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: Run as far away as fast as possible...I could not be more sincere. This portfolio is not what they make it out to be. This is the 7th day of straight losses...the money you can't affort to lose...my a$$
I'm sorry for the losses but I really don't plan to run. I can appreciate that this is a strange market and while it adjusts the PP will have some short term stagnation. I don't plan to look at it daily or even weekly, I run a business and have a family, I'd rather enjoy life.
If the PP were a 10 hour international flight, budd would be the guy sitting next to you who turns to you every 30 minutes and says: "I'm pretty sure the plane is about to crash."
Budd is the guy next to you during turbulence saying "wow, this jet airliner, often touted for it's extreme stability in flight, is sure rocking a lot!  airliner for the lunch you can't afford to lose, my ass!"
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by MediumTex » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:24 pm

dragoncar wrote: Budd is the guy next to you during turbulence saying "wow, this jet airliner, often touted for it's extreme stability in flight, is sure rocking a lot!  airliner for the lunch you can't afford to lose, my ass!"
Deep and subtle with the deftest touch.

[claps]
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by sixdollars » Fri Jun 05, 2015 5:58 pm

iwealth wrote: Since the start of the year, the portfolio is down what, 0.75% this year?

So, the equivalent of flying along at 30,000 feet and plummeting to 29,775.
I'm imagining the following conversation.

Budd: "I should never have gotten on this plane flight.  I felt fine as we ascended, but now it feels as though we're falling way too fast..."
Me: "Dude, we've only descended like 225 feet."
Budd: "OMG turbulence!  I think the plane is crashing!"
Me: "This is normal for a long plane ride - I'd almost find it more strange if we encountered NO turbulence."
Budd: "Hold me, I'm scared."
Me: "Okay, come on in buddy."
Last edited by sixdollars on Fri Jun 05, 2015 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:12 pm

I really fear this is what will happen to budd when the PP hits that infamous maximum drawdown that I-used-to-mention-but-no-longer-do-due-to-he-who-shall-remain-nameless:

[align=center]Image[/align]
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Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by MediumTex » Fri Jun 05, 2015 10:19 pm

MachineGhost wrote: I really fear this is what will happen to budd when the PP hits that infamous maximum drawdown that I-used-to-mention-but-no-longer-do-due-to-he-who-shall-remain-nameless:
I was thinking more of an internal pressure-induced event:

Image

I watched "Scanners" for the first time when I was about 12 years old, and in retrospect that was probably not a good idea.  It's a disturbing movie.
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by Matthew19 » Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:50 pm

I didn't expect this thread to end up with exploding heads haha

I'll say this for anyone who feels like they are missing out the stock market gains: the people who are stock heavy aren't selling, and you probably wouldn't be either. When it turns and takes a dump they will give it all back. I did it in 2010-2013 with the gold miners. Huge gains at first, but I never sold and now they are all negative. I would have loved to have had the modest gains of the PP instead of being half right in asset class timing.
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by MediumTex » Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:53 pm

Matthew19 wrote: I didn't expect this thread to end up with exploding heads haha
Going from some basic PP newbie questions to an exploding head without straying too far off topic and doing it in under 4 pages is pretty impressive.
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by Reub » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:00 am

Maybe budd has a point. Is the PP positively biased because of the long term bull markets in gold and treasuries? Are we only here because of recency bias? What if these bulls have run their course? How do we know that what has happened in the past will repeat in the future?  What if business cycles behave differently or these assets become less valuable or worthless?
Last edited by Reub on Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by Pointedstick » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:22 am

Reub wrote: Maybe budd has a point. Is the PP positively biased because of the long term bull markets in gold and treasuries?
What long-term bull market in gold?
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Re: New PPer needs guidance.

Post by MediumTex » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:23 am

Pointedstick wrote:
Reub wrote: Maybe budd has a point. Is the PP positively biased because of the long term bull markets in gold and treasuries?
What long-term bull market in gold?
And I would point Reub back to some of the PP basics, like if one asset is falling, another asset MUST be rising, and if you can somehow find proxies for assets associated with all conceivable economic environments, then you will always have at least one winner in your portfolio, and that's enough to protect you.
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