Nowhere.Reub wrote: Where is it written in stone that this can't happen?
Why? Does anyone think they CAN'T drop alltogether....?
Moderator: Global Moderator
Nowhere.Reub wrote: Where is it written in stone that this can't happen?
It's not written in stone anywhere, but the prosperity-recession dichotomy is consistent with the Austrian business cycle theory ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_b ... cle_theory ) and the inflation-deflation dichotomy seems to be informed by an Austrian analysis of the US' fiat currency system.Reub wrote: Where is it written in stone that this can't happen?
People tend to buy equity on economic expansions. That may not always be the public stock market. For instance, when Title III of the JOBS Act is fully implemented (where every Joe Sixpack can invest as little as $100 into seed and series A funding of startups), it may kill the overvalued public stock market while the economy is still expanding.When the economy is expanding people tend to buy stocks.
Inflating rising isn't a problem. It's inflation being too high. That's at the 5% point. Above that the stock market tanks.When inflation is rising, people tend to buy gold.
I do. Gold bottomed in 2001 long before QEternity. It was 09/11 that sparked the rally. People lost confidence in the government.barrett wrote: This explanation makes sense to me. Does anyone disagree with MT on this? I have often thought that understanding gold's performance from 2000 to the present is really important for a PP investor. It save the PP for a decade. It's kind of important to know if that is a potentially repeatable event, no?
A quick post for closure...Mark Leavy wrote: My last off topic post on this thread...
A very hearty thanks to all who helped spot and identify the error(s) in my modeling spreadsheet.
Barrent, Pet Hog, Tyler, MG...
I think I've come to a better understanding of what "adjusted returns" means. I used to think it was just "split adjusted" but now know that on Yahoo it also means dividend adjusted.
PLEASE DON'T USE THE SPREADSHEET I POSTED!
Tyler's fix will cover most of the corrections, but I'm still worried now that the last few months of data are a mix of "Split Adjusted" and "Yahoo adjusted" data.
Give me a few days to do an update. I really want the daily returns to reflect the split adjusted closing prices - and the dividends to go to cash. That is more in line with how my personal finances work.
I'll repost once I get it fixed - as I truly appreciate the scrutiny, honesty and wealth of experience on this board.
Mark
A GREAT phrase (above) that deserves to be forever memorialized by being in some form of "Permanent Portfolio Creed"...…."I believe in the Permanent Portfolio.....which has three other bandages at the ready....."Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:56 am I would personally worry less about a falling knife in the PP since it has three other bandages at the ready. And don't forget it sounds like the OP is not sitting in cash but is heavy on miners. A timely transition may be prudent.
FWIW, with that level of assets I'd primarily be concerned with the tax implications of changing allocations. Before you do anything, put together a transition plan to minimize taxes. Tax loss harvesting, saving some gains for next year, etc.
How do I find this?
Is there a poll somewhere as to how people reallocate / rebalance?Professor Disorientation wrote: ↑Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:09 am Welcome Matthew,
When to begin the PP always presents a dilemma. One or more of the asset groups may seem overvalued while other asset groups are tanking and looking for a bottom. I just jumped in December 2014 and allotted my 25% to the four asset groups and I have not looked back. I checked this morning and I am down -1.5%. TLT and IAU are down for me. This doesn't mean the PP is faulty and asset groups going up and down are to be expected.
Others on the forum have been with the PP a lot longer than I have. But the issue of timing the market is anathema to the PP philosophy. What I do is put additional cash in my PP weekly and when the cash portion of my PP hits 35% then I will reallocate to the original 25% for each asset group. This keeps the spirit of the PP alive. The great plus of Harry's philosophy is that no one can time the market consistently. I believe this. That's why the PP has a valuable place in my overall financial scheme.
Good luck. No one knows what will happen in the years ahead. The PP has weathered financial shocks before and it will do it again.
I am sure that rereading this is somewhat amusing for several here?Pointedstick wrote: ↑Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:47 amBoom. Exactly the right attitude!Matthew19 wrote:I'm sorry for the losses but I really don't plan to run. I can appreciate that this is a strange market and while it adjusts the PP will have some short term stagnation. I don't plan to look at it daily or even weekly, I run a business and have a family, I'd rather enjoy life.buddtholomew wrote: Run as far away as fast as possible...I could not be more sincere. This portfolio is not what they make it out to be. This is the 7th day of straight losses...the money you can't affort to lose...my a$$
Just goes along with the last one!MediumTex wrote: ↑Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:20 pmIf the PP were a 10 hour international flight, budd would be the guy sitting next to you who turns to you every 30 minutes and says: "I'm pretty sure the plane is about to crash."Matthew19 wrote:I'm sorry for the losses but I really don't plan to run. I can appreciate that this is a strange market and while it adjusts the PP will have some short term stagnation. I don't plan to look at it daily or even weekly, I run a business and have a family, I'd rather enjoy life.buddtholomew wrote: Run as far away as fast as possible...I could not be more sincere. This portfolio is not what they make it out to be. This is the 7th day of straight losses...the money you can't affort to lose...my a$$