Major Change Coming Soon

[portart]

I have been in PP for ten years. When it reaches deep losing levels (gold and treasuries both being taken to the woodshed from past highs and stocks on an endless run), a change is in the works. No way can one area drive the other three. Most inflection points come at highs and lows....get ready

[Cortopassi]

I feel the same way..  Seems like everything critical in the world is being papered or glossed over while we continue to get inundated with useless garbage.  Bread and circuses.

If you haven't run into this letter (and comments!), this seems to clearly show there is a lot simmering just under the surface:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/ ... consumers/

[glennds]

I have been in PP for ten years. When it reaches deep losing levels (gold and treasuries both being taken to the woodshed from past highs and stocks on an endless run), a change is in the works. No way can one area drive the other three. Most inflection points come at highs and lows....get ready

Would you mind elaborating on what you experienced in the past and when? I'm not quite sure what I'm seeing in the PP right now, and I'd like to learn from your experience. Thanks,

[LC475]

Back in 1981 a change was certainly in the works.  The economy changed course quite dramatically, I'd say.  Could be now is something like that.  Maybe.

[portart]

PP was a star for years as the market crumbled. Now PP is in the dog house as equities returned to the mean, gold was sold, and treasuries are looking at interest rate hikes (or so projected, let's see if the administration can swallow a large dip in equities and a voting black eye).  At the end of the day, you miss the big gains and avoid large losses in PP. As hated as it is now, it's still a single digit loss for the calendar year. No 40% losses that many experienced a few years back.

Over time, you keep up with inflation and get a little more on top.  If you fudge on gold (less then 25% of PP), you might feel good now and even into the coming year or so, but at the time you need the boost to counter a stock plunge, you will miss the straw that stirs the drink. Gold moves fast in both directions so timing it is fruitless. Hold your breath, buy your 25% and sleep well with the correct correlation for a true PP. Don't modify the formula trying to be too smart. HB put that allocation in there for a reason. So what if gold drops below $1,000 in the short term. You can say that about any part of PP. Hard fast moves scare only market timers.

[LC475]

If you fudge on gold (less then 25% of PP), you might feel good now and even into the coming year or so, but at the time you need the boost to counter a stock plunge, you will miss the straw that stirs the drink.

The tweakers will always feel better... until they don't.