PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Tyler
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by Tyler » Mon Sep 21, 2015 6:17 pm

PP67 wrote: Tyler, can you add your "Tyler 5x20 PP" to the selections of portfolios in your great website?

Thanks!

PS: Are we supposed to be able to click on Calculator and get anything to happen?  Nothing happens when I do...

Thanks for your great charts and work!
Good idea.  I'll add it to the list.  But it definitely needs a better name.  ;)

Yes, each calculator page has an embedded excel spreadsheet.  They may take a few seconds to load, and you may occasionally have to refresh.  If nothing shows up at all, you might see if an ad blocker is filtering it out.  If that doesn't work, please PM me with what device/browser you're using so that I can look into any compatability issues.  Thanks!
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by fi50@fi2023 » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:19 pm

Food for thought - I use the paul merriman index fund mix (which he calls the ultimate buy and hold portfolio) for my 25% stock portion of the HBPP.  It includes large cap, large cap value, small cap, small cap value and emerging markets, and is roughly 50% US and 50% International.  Here is a link:  http://paulmerriman.com/the-ultimate-bu ... tegy-2014/ and http://paulmerriman.com/vanguard/.  I use the stock only mix.
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by dragoncar » Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:10 am

If one were to buy some SCV, what would be a good fund or etf?
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Sep 22, 2015 4:15 am

i like the fidelity small cap funds .
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ochotona
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:58 am

That's very nice.
Tyler wrote: My favorite PP-like option so far is a simple 5x20 portfolio that adds small cap value stocks as the 5th asset class.  Compared to the PP, the real CAGR is a full 1% higher with the same volatility and an even smaller(!) max single-year drawdown (-9% vs. -12%).  As a result, the long-term withdrawal rates are also about 1% higher.  A 5%+ Sustainable WR is pretty impressive, and the ride is remarkably smooth.
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Tyler
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by Tyler » Tue Sep 22, 2015 12:22 pm

FYI -- I added a new topic in the VP section discussing the PP variant idea in a lot more detail.

http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/va ... portfolio/
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by Tyler » Tue Sep 22, 2015 1:51 pm

dragoncar wrote: If one were to buy some SCV, what would be a good fund or etf?
VISVX and IWN are two notable options. 
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by iwealth » Tue Sep 22, 2015 2:56 pm

Also VBR. Anything Vanguard I highly recommend.
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:51 pm

Pointedstick wrote: It might be useful to have options for determining spending, or even adding of subtracting from inflation to account for people who don't trust CPI. If it could be shown that a given portfolio would survive even if CPI were only half of the supposed real value, for example, that would be a very powerful piece of information to have.
No portfolio survives the actual real rate of inflation.  The only way to get ahead is to accumulate capital faster than everyone else.
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Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: PP, Retirement, and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Sep 29, 2015 4:59 pm

The median stock is now more overvalued than at the 2000 peak when just large caps were.  That includes small cap "value".  Don't expect the historical outperformance going forward.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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