Gyroscopic Investing

What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI

AnotherSwede wrote: What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI

OMG CHAOS!!!!!!!!!! Don't you see! We need more CONTROL! Spontaneous order from chaos is an impossible, non-existent concept! Without a central authority we'll all be doooooooooooomed! Never mind that it appears to be working… it's just a ruse designed to lull you into a false sense of complacency! Soon there will be unspeakable, unimaginable calamities!

Simonjester wrote:

AnotherSwede wrote: What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI

LMAO

watch out!! the government may be on their way to your house right now for posting links to subversive videos...

We've all been at an intersection where the power is off and the lights are blinking red or off.  I will agree that most times, you can actually get through faster. 

But this was two different days, and you don't know if there was an accident one day out of camerashot or if NZ traffic is radically different on Mon vs. Tues.  As well, all it takes is one person not familiar with the area, or not paying attention, to blow through and cause an accident.

When I have my self driving car, I am all for traffic lights going away...

It might also be that the power being out led to a lot of people not going to work.

moda and stewardship,

Apologies have recently been discussed in "Best PLaces to Retire."  This makes perfect sense to me.  That was the big issue in the New Zealand conversation.  You might wish to take your apology stuff there.  The thread is, surprisingly, in "Other Discussions." 

Will our thread on the Manhattan meet, which went well,  be demoted to a general listing?  I do not know how to do this.  Nor do I know how to use the "buddy" feature.

Any help?

Cortopassi wrote: When I have my self driving car, I am all for traffic lights going away...

Self-driving cars was also my first thought when the traffic lights argument was raised.  If we don't have a government controlling traffic, we might devise alternative methods for road safety that don't involve lights at all.  Self-driving cars might obviate the need for any road signs.  It would be a completely private solution to a public problem.

Pointedstick wrote:

AnotherSwede wrote: What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI

OMG CHAOS!!!!!!!!!! Don't you see! We need more CONTROL! Spontaneous order from chaos is an impossible, non-existent concept! Without a central authority we'll all be doooooooooooomed! Never mind that it appears to be working… it's just a ruse designed to lull you into a false sense of complacency! Soon there will be unspeakable, unimaginable calamities!

Doesn't that all seem a bit odd to you?

First off, there's congestion down the road somewhere screwing up the whole thing. Is that another place where the light was changed to a stop?

Further, it appears that their IS a requirement to stop by a couple parties, so it's not just a free for all. And I think it's common knowledge that one-way stops are more efficient than lights as long as they don't get too over-crowded on the stop sign and favor the highway goers over those trying to get on it too much.

To me, lights are about balancing the traffic of what would be a completely one-directional congestion. They're not meant to actually reduce it overall. For the most part anyway. Obviously accidents factor in.

In my experience, four way stops and lights suck, but are necessary to balance congestion amongst various directions. Roundabouts are where it's at.

moda0306 wrote: In my experience, four way stops and lights suck, but are necessary to balance congestion amongst various directions. Roundabouts are where it's at.

I live next to the roundabout capital of the U.S. and although they have their own issues, roundabouts do work pretty well, certainly better than 4-way stops.  But surely there is someone somewhere that will fight to preserve the status quo to save the union jobs at all the traffic light and stop sign factories.

Traffic could undoubtedly be optimized if the government weren't in charge of it.  Traffic signals could function under better algorithms that allow traffic to proceed more efficiently for everyone.

This discussion reminds me of local candidates 20 years ago, before we had rush hour congestion, promising to prevent Los Angeles style traffic here in Las Vegas.  What we have now is Los Angeles style traffic.  No apologies from anyone there.

Wow, 16 pages of hand wringing again in just a bit over two weeks?  I'm not going to even bother reading.

Some people need to get out of the PP.  There's no shame in admitting defeat.  There are less risky portfolios.

MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.

Such as?

Stewardship wrote:

MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.

Such as?

Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.

MachineGhost wrote:

Stewardship wrote:

MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.

Such as?

Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.

Larry Swedroe?

MachineGhost wrote:

Stewardship wrote:

MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.

Such as?

Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.

I looked for that briefly and couldn't find it, so does it have any significant amount of gold? If not, I don't consider it low-risk.

Libertarian666 wrote:

MachineGhost wrote:

Stewardship wrote: Such as?

Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.

I looked for that briefly and couldn't find it, so does it have any significant amount of gold? If not, I don't consider it low-risk.

MG must mean Swedroe's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio (Burns is the Couch Potato guy).  Swedroe's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio is 30% stock (half small cap value and half emerging markets), 35% TIPS, and 35% short term treasuries.  No gold (Swedroe does not like gold).

Libertarian666 wrote: I looked for that briefly and couldn't find it, so does it have any significant amount of gold? If not, I don't consider it low-risk.

+1

Ad Orientem wrote: Harry Browne was a smart guy but he was not infallible. Stating that government never works is just silly.

Well, I guess from that we can say that government works for you.  Bully.

That's great you have an opinion and are not afraid to voice it.  I am happy to allow you your opinion.  My only wish -- it is a simple wish -- is that those of your point of view would allow me to have mine.

Seems only civilized.

But then, perhaps I'm "just silly."

Stewardship wrote: Apologies for the conversation drift.  I'll start a new thread if I want to discuss the different possible options for sewage

On where to hide: if the Permanent Portfolio is performing badly, perhaps the first question to ask should be:

What economic state are we in?

Prosperity?  Recession?  Inflation?  Deflation?

So what is the answer?  If you have no answer to that question, perhaps best to hold off on action until you do have an answer.  Otherwise, you're walking off blindfolded, and in a place with an awful lot of cliffs.

Legendary Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle warns that there is an "awful lot" to fear in the current stock market and investors have few “good options.”

"This is a hard time to invest because there aren't a lot of good options to stocks, and bond yields are extremely low," he told CNBC.

He said the Federal Reserve’s continued insistence on low interest rates has only artificially boosted stock prices.

"That's a scary thing because it can't stay that way forever," he said. "So, I do advocate a cautious approach to investing."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTa ... id/645782/

Cash anyone?

Reub wrote: Legendary Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle warns that there is an "awful lot" to fear in the current stock market and investors have few “good options.”

"This is a hard time to invest because there aren't a lot of good options to stocks, and bond yields are extremely low," he told CNBC.

He said the Federal Reserve’s continued insistence on low interest rates has only artificially boosted stock prices.

"That's a scary thing because it can't stay that way forever," he said. "So, I do advocate a cautious approach to investing."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTa ... id/645782/

Cash anyone?

He also mentioned to stay out of long-term treasuries...sure wish he added unless they are part of a well diversified portfolio.

Poor guy...CNBC asked what he would tell the young investor who believes the entire market is manipulated? Mr. Bogle calmly attempted to explain dividends and earnings...I'm certain if any young investors were listening they most certainly would have already tuned out!

buddtholomew wrote: Poor guy...CNBC asked what he would tell the young investor who believes the entire market is manipulated? Mr. Bogle calmly attempted to explain dividends and earnings...

So he didn't answer the question?

buddtholomew wrote:

Reub wrote: Legendary Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle warns that there is an "awful lot" to fear in the current stock market and investors have few “good options.”

"This is a hard time to invest because there aren't a lot of good options to stocks, and bond yields are extremely low," he told CNBC.

He said the Federal Reserve’s continued insistence on low interest rates has only artificially boosted stock prices.

"That's a scary thing because it can't stay that way forever," he said. "So, I do advocate a cautious approach to investing."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTa ... id/645782/

Cash anyone?

He also mentioned to stay out of long-term treasuries...sure wish he added unless they are part of a well diversified portfolio.

Poor guy...CNBC asked what he would tell the young investor who believes the entire market is manipulated? Mr. Bogle calmly attempted to explain dividends and earnings...I'm certain if any young investors were listening they most certainly would have already tuned out!

The PP really sucks recently! Is it yesterday's news?
As I said once before, the place to hide is in cash.

LC475 wrote:


What economic state are we in?

Prosperity?  Recession?  Inflation?  Deflation?

deflation

Deflation, and no help from bonds!

LC475 wrote: What economic state are we in?

Prosperity?  Recession?  Inflation?  Deflation?

Since 2008 we are in the midst of a massive deleveraging which I think so far is generally deflationary.

ochotona wrote: Deflation, and no help from bonds!

Yes, not in the short term but bonds performed strongly in 2008, 2011 & 2014. I'm not ready to dump mine yet. Ride them when they are doing well, take some profits, endure some bond pain, and (hopefully) repeat.