Gyroscopic Investing

TennPaGa wrote:

Cortopassi wrote: MR?

moda0306 wrote: Corto,

MR = Monetary Realism.  It's a school of thought around money trying to describe how our fiat currency system actually works.  Personally, I find some of the lessons and explanations within MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) to be easier to digest earlier on in my "how the f'k does our monetary system work" days, but MR is 1) technically more correct on how the operations actually work, and 2) not nearly as heavy handed with regards to policy prescriptions.  MR & MMT have some Keynesian-esque foundations along with what I'd argue is a few "Austrian" economic foundations (production is SUPER important).

Those pundits, while perhaps intelligent on micro-finance, are pretty lacking when it comes to macro-economics.  A lot them follow deficit-hawkery that is tied into monetarism and Austrian economic philosophies.

To expand on the Monetary Realism stuff, if you are interested...

A fellow named Cullen Roche has developed this school of thought.  He maintains a couple of different websites:

www.pragcap.com
www.monetaryrealism.com

He's also upload a number of papers on the Social Sciences Research Network:

Cullen Roche papers on SSRN

He's not the greatest writer, but he's worked really hard at explaining the operational realities of the monetary system.

We used to have many thread here discussing these issues.

Is the plural of thread "thread"?

For those interested, here's a good 30min video on how the ecomony works, according to Ray Dalio:

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0

ozzy wrote: For those interested, here's a good 30min video on how the ecomony works, according to Ray Dalio:

The one thing that has always impressed me with Austrian Economics is the admission that nobody really knows how the economy works. There are simply too many moving parts.

Only problem is that then they turn right around and predict that we are headed off a cliff. How do they know?

madbean wrote:

ozzy wrote: For those interested, here's a good 30min video on how the ecomony works, according to Ray Dalio:

The one thing that has always impressed me with Austrian Economics is the admission that nobody really knows how the economy works. There are simply too many moving parts.

Only problem is that then they turn right around and predict that we are headed off a cliff. How do they know?

Similar to Harry Browne, they commit the fallacy of composition.  Instead of really getting into economics, and the actual study of behaviors of people, they basically say that we all are the most efficient seekers of our own best interests, and therefore the freest markets reflect the best interest of the people as a whole.  Their supposed attempts at viewing history is more cherry-picking than analysis, IMO (OMG we cut spending in the 1920 recession and had an economic boom!) (OMG Weimar)

They also assume the validity of capitalist property norms in the pricing mechanism.

They have some really good ideas worth reading, but I think they fall off some cliffs that are just too high to ignore.

moda0306 wrote: Similar to Harry Browne, they commit the fallacy of composition.  Instead of really getting into economics, and the actual study of behaviors of people, they basically say that we all are the most efficient seekers of our own best interests, and therefore the freest markets reflect the best interest of the people as a whole.

IMO HB says that government intervention can't be desirable to the people as a whole unless it improves upon a free market system.  Then he gives example after example of how it does just the opposite.  I don't see a fallacy there.

ochotona wrote:

Stewardship wrote:

Ad Orientem wrote: Stating that government never works is just silly.

Have you read Why Government Doesn't Work by HB?

I believe HB would respond: please give a single example of a government program that works well.

If the government didn't operate traffic signals, I believe my 30 min commute today would've been like 3 hours with uncontrolled intersections. I do not believe organizations would voluntarily and charitably spring up spontaneously to handle this work. Also sewers, clean water, these are nice things. It could be better, but our food is relatively safe... safer than China, though much less delicious. All of these attributes are conspicuously absent in the third world, or countries headed toward that status, like Greece or Venezuela, where tax evasion is also rampant.

Traffic signals.  How many businesses would pay to operate traffic signals if they could advertise on them during a red light?  A lot, I surmise.  That's just one idea and I'm sure entrepreneurs much smarter than me could come up with even better ideas.
Sewers and water.  I can't think of any reason why competing private companies couldn't provide a superior service for less.
Safe food.  I don't know... organics are booming, so not everyone is confident about their food here in the United States.  China also regulates their food industry, so you are kinda making the argument that government doesn't work rather than disputing it there. 

Third world countries regulate business as much or more as first world, save flourishing black markets, so I think that point is moot.

So my sewers are run by a private company, which is funded by a municipal district which is a very tiny lightweight layer of government. It's low cost and efficient, but it is government. It's "single payer". There are no competing companies with different sewer systems drilled into the earth vying for my individual business.

We need a place on this forum to dump threads that no longer have anything to do with the subject line. Maybe something like "Morphed Threads." I think most of what is usually referred to as hijacking is just the conversation drifting toward whatever is of interest to people. But I do like to be able to click on something and have the current discussion have at least something to do with the subject.

Cortopassi wrote: Seem to be quite a lot of these days lately.  Looks like any 2015 gains I had are now gone.  Gold to the woodshed, yet again, even after another delay in rate hikes.  It can't win.

So... Where are we? Who's on first?

Apologies for the conversation drift.  I'll start a new thread if I want to discuss the different possible options for sewage 

Where were we?  Oh yes, treatment options for those who have trouble coping with the PP's daily volatility.  SSRI's are popular.  Just be cautious about the suicide risk.

Stewardship wrote: Apologies for the conversation drift.  I'll start a new thread if I want to discuss the different possible options for sewage 

Where were we?  Oh yes, treatment options for those who have trouble coping with the PP's daily volatility.  SSRI's are popular.  Just be cautious about the suicide risk.

Don't apologize. If we all apologized for a meandering thread, then I've got about 50 threads that got turned into monetary system debates to go back and apologize for.

Yeah, I think the PP was just in the sewer for a spell. You guys were probably not that far off topic. Carry on!

What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI

AnotherSwede wrote: What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI

OMG CHAOS!!!!!!!!!! Don't you see! We need more CONTROL! Spontaneous order from chaos is an impossible, non-existent concept! Without a central authority we'll all be doooooooooooomed! Never mind that it appears to be working… it's just a ruse designed to lull you into a false sense of complacency! Soon there will be unspeakable, unimaginable calamities!

Simonjester wrote:

AnotherSwede wrote: What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI

LMAO

watch out!! the government may be on their way to your house right now for posting links to subversive videos...

We've all been at an intersection where the power is off and the lights are blinking red or off.  I will agree that most times, you can actually get through faster. 

But this was two different days, and you don't know if there was an accident one day out of camerashot or if NZ traffic is radically different on Mon vs. Tues.  As well, all it takes is one person not familiar with the area, or not paying attention, to blow through and cause an accident.

When I have my self driving car, I am all for traffic lights going away...

It might also be that the power being out led to a lot of people not going to work.

moda and stewardship,

Apologies have recently been discussed in "Best PLaces to Retire."  This makes perfect sense to me.  That was the big issue in the New Zealand conversation.  You might wish to take your apology stuff there.  The thread is, surprisingly, in "Other Discussions." 

Will our thread on the Manhattan meet, which went well,  be demoted to a general listing?  I do not know how to do this.  Nor do I know how to use the "buddy" feature.

Any help?

Cortopassi wrote: When I have my self driving car, I am all for traffic lights going away...

Self-driving cars was also my first thought when the traffic lights argument was raised.  If we don't have a government controlling traffic, we might devise alternative methods for road safety that don't involve lights at all.  Self-driving cars might obviate the need for any road signs.  It would be a completely private solution to a public problem.

Pointedstick wrote:

AnotherSwede wrote: What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI

OMG CHAOS!!!!!!!!!! Don't you see! We need more CONTROL! Spontaneous order from chaos is an impossible, non-existent concept! Without a central authority we'll all be doooooooooooomed! Never mind that it appears to be working… it's just a ruse designed to lull you into a false sense of complacency! Soon there will be unspeakable, unimaginable calamities!

Doesn't that all seem a bit odd to you?

First off, there's congestion down the road somewhere screwing up the whole thing. Is that another place where the light was changed to a stop?

Further, it appears that their IS a requirement to stop by a couple parties, so it's not just a free for all. And I think it's common knowledge that one-way stops are more efficient than lights as long as they don't get too over-crowded on the stop sign and favor the highway goers over those trying to get on it too much.

To me, lights are about balancing the traffic of what would be a completely one-directional congestion. They're not meant to actually reduce it overall. For the most part anyway. Obviously accidents factor in.

In my experience, four way stops and lights suck, but are necessary to balance congestion amongst various directions. Roundabouts are where it's at.

moda0306 wrote: In my experience, four way stops and lights suck, but are necessary to balance congestion amongst various directions. Roundabouts are where it's at.

I live next to the roundabout capital of the U.S. and although they have their own issues, roundabouts do work pretty well, certainly better than 4-way stops.  But surely there is someone somewhere that will fight to preserve the status quo to save the union jobs at all the traffic light and stop sign factories.

Traffic could undoubtedly be optimized if the government weren't in charge of it.  Traffic signals could function under better algorithms that allow traffic to proceed more efficiently for everyone.

This discussion reminds me of local candidates 20 years ago, before we had rush hour congestion, promising to prevent Los Angeles style traffic here in Las Vegas.  What we have now is Los Angeles style traffic.  No apologies from anyone there.

Wow, 16 pages of hand wringing again in just a bit over two weeks?  I'm not going to even bother reading.

Some people need to get out of the PP.  There's no shame in admitting defeat.  There are less risky portfolios.

MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.

Such as?

Stewardship wrote:

MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.

Such as?

Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.

MachineGhost wrote:

Stewardship wrote:

MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.

Such as?

Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.

Larry Swedroe?