No where to hide
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Re: No where to hide
I may be a little too simple-minded on this but if I post the Peak-to-Trough results of a HBPP allocation for the time I've been using it and post the resulting CAGR on Tyler's terrific PP real returns over time plot and it is within the bands shown for that time period, I conclude that there is nothing really wrong with how the PP is performing up to this point... I may be currently below the median point but I am above the low point... I may have been hoping for the median return but I shouldn't complain if I am somewhere along that vertical range of outcomes...
http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/pe ... portfolio/
http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/pe ... portfolio/
Re: No where to hide
Where did I say that they started a scam? I just wonder how they could be so into the PP to engage in vehement post after post on the BH site, then start this site, write a book about it, and then pretty much disappear for long periods of time. It doesn't take a lot of effort to write an occasional post or two on a semi-regular basis as most of my posts prove.dualstow wrote:I think it was Bob Dylan who said, I don't need to refute every allegation about me. I think it's enough that there is always *someone* on this forum at any given time who is willing to reiterate the principles. I mean, it's got to get boring after a while for the same person to have to keep doing it. The book is out there. The forum is out there. Why not just reread what they already wrote if it hasn't changed?Reub wrote: Wasn't it nice when we had the two people who started this website always posting on here (and on the Bogleheads site beforehand) and they were always promoting, explaining and defending the PP? Why did they stop? I miss that!
You make it sound like they started a scam and then ran off with ill-gotten gains.
I always wonder how 90-year-old Taylor Larimore keeps it up at Bogleheads.
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Re: No where to hide
You never did, explicitly. But, since this is not the first time you've asked, in essence, "Where are they now", I get the feeling that some people feel they were just out to sell books -- in fact, didn't this come up once? -- and I seriously doubt they made a ton of money off of those book sales. If you don't feel that it's a scam, I'm happy. But, once we know how the pp works, how much handholding do we really need? And does it have to be from those two?Reub wrote: Where did I say that they started a scam? I just wonder how they could be so into the PP to engage in vehement post after post on the BH site, then start this site, write a book about it, and then pretty much disappear for long periods of time. It doesn't take a lot of effort to write an occasional post or two on a semi-regular basis as most of my posts prove.
Re: No where to hide
Yeah, where are those guys?
I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.
I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
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Re: No where to hide
Brazil with the book money ...
Re: No where to hide
Probably so.mathjak107 wrote: Brazil with the book money ...
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
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Re: No where to hide
Currently "washing" the money through a carpet vacuuming business, as the authorities have really clamped down on car washes since Breaking Bad was broadcast.
Re: No where to hide
It's good to see I've flushed one of them out! At least for one day.
Re: No where to hide
Here is my answer to that.Reub wrote: It's good to see I've flushed one of them out! At least for one day.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: No where to hide
Wonder if John Travolta was talking to this guy?
Background: Mechanical Engineering, Robotics, Control Systems, CAD Modeling, Machining, Wearable Exoskeletons, Applied Physiology, Drawing (Pencil/Charcoal), Drums, Guitar/Bass, Piano, Flute
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"you are not disabled by your disabilities but rather, abled by your abilities." -Oscar Pistorius
Re: No where to hide
I'm sorry but my satellite comms on my globetrotting yacht was down for a few days so I couldn't post.MediumTex wrote: Yeah, where are those guys?
I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.
But you know the best thing about writing a book on a niche investing strategy is? The free bar of gold we receive each month for our efforts. Not to mention the extensive fees we receive for each post we make on an internet forum. The profits vs. time expended has been phenomenal. Frankly, I have had a hell of a hard time spending all the money on just strippers. I need to find either a good healthy drug addiction to blow all the royalties, or more expensive strippers.
Last edited by craigr on Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: No where to hide
You need a snortfolio.
Re: No where to hide
Whoa dude, you only have one yacht?craigr wrote:I'm sorry but my satellite comms on my globetrotting yacht was down for a few days so I couldn't post.MediumTex wrote: Yeah, where are those guys?
I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.
I bought a yacht for every member of my family. I named them the Nina, the Pinta, the Santa Maria, the Palais Aqua, and the J-Law PP Pimp Pod.
I'm like L. Ron Hubbard sans the 501(c) tax exempt status.
And the groupies...don't even get me started. I'm thinking about buying another yacht just for them. I'm going to call it "Browne Skeazin".
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
Re: No where to hide
Look! They're alive!!MediumTex wrote:Whoa dude, you only have one yacht?craigr wrote:I'm sorry but my satellite comms on my globetrotting yacht was down for a few days so I couldn't post.MediumTex wrote: Yeah, where are those guys?
I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.
I bought a yacht for every member of my family. I named them the Nina, the Pinta, the Santa Maria, the Palais Aqua, and the J-Law PP Pimp Pod.
I'm like L. Ron Hubbard sans the 501(c) tax exempt status.
And the groupies...don't even get me started. I'm thinking about buying another yacht just for them. I'm going to call it "Browne Skeazin".
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Re: No where to hide
Didn't Harry Browne's radio ad used to say,Desert wrote: The hedonistic excesses that Craig and MT are wallowing in will one day end ... but meanwhile, I will sit in this rocking chair, rocking back and forth, cursing their names.
You can curse me online, or print out your curse and invoke it in your easy chair.
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Re: No where to hide
There is no alternative. Load up on obscenely overvalued stocks? Load up on longest duration T-Bonds while they're at a 5,000 year low in interest rates, soon to reverse course starting in the next few days? Load up on a useless, barbarous lump of shiny metal that is no longer money, never will be again and will only have demand in that short period of time where confidence in government and the financial system has been lost but is still standing like a mirage?mathjak107 wrote: they may end up severely under funded for that luxury and that is the danger.
Seriously man, you better plan for a SWR way below what you expect historically because neither stocks nor bonds are going to offer that for the next 17 years. Again, what is the alternative?
Last edited by MachineGhost on Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: No where to hide
unconventional times may call for unconventional investing and i think integrated strategy's using spia's and perhaps life insurance with your own ivesting may be the new answer for the new times for retirees .
dead body's are a lot more predictable then markets and rates .
research is showing very good results with integrated strategy's
dead body's are a lot more predictable then markets and rates .
research is showing very good results with integrated strategy's
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: No where to hide
They jinxed it by releasing a book! Just as I feared at the time.Reub wrote: Wasn't it nice when we had the two people who started this website always posting on here (and on the Bogleheads site beforehand) and they were always promoting, explaining and defending the PP? Why did they stop? I miss that!
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: No where to hide
If the PP is too risky for you as it is for me, I have come up with an alternative: the PP Jr.buddtholomew wrote: In your eyes, the PP can do no wrong. Why don't you admit that it is not working as expected. Down 2/4 years or 50% of the time I have been invested.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: No where to hide
I thought it was Argentina?MediumTex wrote: Yeah, where are those guys?
I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.
And then one of them fled with his ill gotten cash to legally immigrate to New Zealand (of all places!).
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: No where to hide
I hope you start a new thread on this. I've always been big on diversifying within the asset classes because human fads are unpredictable to be caught being dead all in one.mathjak107 wrote: unconventional times may call for unconventional investing and i think integrated strategy's using spia's and perhaps life insurance with your own ivesting may be the new answer for the new times for retirees .
dead body's are a lot more predictable then markets and rates .
research is showing very good results with integrated strategy's
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: No where to hide
i didn't plan on it , i get enough grief here ha ha ha
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Re: No where to hide
Me, blather? Never! I will start a new thread for your sake.MangoMan wrote: If you are going to make a statement like this, how about elaborating on what exactly it means? Without substance, the statement is just blather.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Re: No where to hide
In reference to the portion above I bolded, truer words may have never been spoken.MachineGhost wrote:There is no alternative. Load up on obscenely overvalued stocks? Load up on longest duration T-Bonds while they're at a 5,000 year low in interest rates, soon to reverse course starting in the next few days? Load up on a useless, barbarous lump of shiny metal that is no longer money, never will be again and will only have demand in that short period of time where confidence in government and the financial system has been lost but is still standing like a mirage?mathjak107 wrote: they may end up severely under funded for that luxury and that is the danger.
Seriously man, you better plan for a SWR way below what you expect historically because neither stocks nor bonds are going to offer that for the next 17 years. Again, what is the alternative?
Is there not ANY time in history we can look to to see how history will rhyme this time around???
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Re: No where to hide
I think there is any number of different ways that things could work out for the better, and the idea that "the good times are over, and we're all screwed" is wrong.4x4 wrote:In reference to the portion above I bolded, truer words may have never been spoken.MachineGhost wrote:There is no alternative. Load up on obscenely overvalued stocks? Load up on longest duration T-Bonds while they're at a 5,000 year low in interest rates, soon to reverse course starting in the next few days? Load up on a useless, barbarous lump of shiny metal that is no longer money, never will be again and will only have demand in that short period of time where confidence in government and the financial system has been lost but is still standing like a mirage?mathjak107 wrote: they may end up severely under funded for that luxury and that is the danger.
Seriously man, you better plan for a SWR way below what you expect historically because neither stocks nor bonds are going to offer that for the next 17 years. Again, what is the alternative?
Is there not ANY time in history we can look to to see how history will rhyme this time around???
Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid will bankrupt the US!
The most common age in America is now 22! With the 2nd and third most common ages being 21 and 23! source. Although millennials may get the rap for having "bad work ethic" so has every other generation for every decade ever, and like it or not they are entering the workforce in droves. Like it or not old people die, and yes medical care in the US needs reform, but the baby boomers aside we are leveling out in population growth, and there is no reason to think that it won't remain solvent for years to come.
China/India/Brazil is going to overtake us and we will all be broke!
The list of former economic superpowers [Germany, Britain, etc...] has a long list of problems, but life went on in those countries, and life will continue in the US. Of course China will overtake us in terms of economic output, they outnumber us 3 to 1, how could they not? It will take time, and there is no reason that even if not the #1 economy in the world that the US will not continue to be prosperous and to provide one of the highest standards of living the world over.
Climate change will kill us all
The good news is many people are waking up to the reality that you can't just take trillions of tons of carbon out of the ground light it on fire and say "nah that won't cause any change at all!" If scientific data is correct (and I know some reading this would question it) then yes, there will be problems in the future and pipers to pay, but the US is better positioned than most countries to deal with it (sorry Bangladesh you are done for.)
The US will go Japanese and deflation ad nauseum.
There are any number of reasons this won't happen, most of which are too complex to get into on a single comment ranging from exports/natural resources, to birth rates, to immigration and exchange with other countries. Even if the US does go Japan and deflation continues, the fact is that many reading this are still much better off than their fellow man/ rest of the country.
Terrorists will kill us all.
There are many fewer terrorists than you might think.
Nuclear war with Russia.
Well that's always a possibility, but I don't really think Russia wants that. At the moment most Russians just want to be able to afford toilet paper.
AND ON AND ON IT GOES!
Back in the "glory days" of the US we had just emerged from WWII, where unemployment was 0%. We had the highest debt to GDP ratio ever, we went off the gold standard, we were in constant fear of A-bombs falling "Duck and Cover anyone?", we were certain the world would end at any moment, and what followed? One of the greatest technological and financial growth periods in modern history. The US went from the superpower that saved the world, to the superpower that owned the world!
I think far too many people look at history, they see 4% as the safe return from the over 100 years of stock market history, and they think, "yea, that'll never last, this time is different."
I think the PP does a great job at providing economic safety in the worst of times, and decent prosperity in the best. Living in a country that supports free-markets, living below your means, investing the rest, and saving for the future -- these are some of the core tenants of the PP, and they will work.
Perhaps there are dark times ahead, but in the words of Albus Dumbledore ~ "Happiness can be found, even in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.'