No where to hide

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:40 am

And this is where I get disgusted with gold yet again. Dollar down what, like 1.5% yesterday with no rise (even a small loss) in gold. However, today, dollar up and gold getting hammered.

I guess I still expect to see it below 1000 before any meaningful rise. Seems appropriate that a dip like that would be some sort of final flush out.

mathjak107 · Post by **mathjak107** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:00 pm

about the best that can be said for gold the last few years is " it ain't stock "

it has no idea what it is supposed to respond to and something else beats it to the punch . it hasn't been good keeping up with inflation , it hasn't been good at following the dollar . the best we can say about it is it isn't stock and gives you a place to put money that does not follow every move stocks make

Post by **dualstow** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:40 pm

Cortopassi wrote: I guess I still expect to see it below 1000 before any meaningful rise.

I hope so. For a while there, I thought I had missed my chance to buy.

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:54 pm

Wow, what happened!? I didn't look at the market since 1PM?! 500 point reversal down? Man.

dragoncar · Post by **dragoncar** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:57 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Wow, what happened!? I didn't look at the market since 1PM?! 500 point reversal down? Man.

Sorry, guys, I looked again. If I stop looking probably everything will go up.

Tyler · Post by **Tyler** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:17 pm

The Dragoncar Uncertainty Principle at work.

Send that man a blindfold!

LC475 · Post by **LC475** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:28 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
LC475 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: Is anyone disputing the fact that a US-centric equity allocation outperformed (past tense) the PP over an arbitrary period of time?
Over any arbitrary period of time? Of course I would disagree with that, only because it's clearly not true. I would not actually dispute such a claim, because it's so obviously and easily verifiably not true that it's not worth my time to actively dispute it.
whatever dude. Get a life.

No, you get a life!

Just kidding, of course!

I will do my best to do a life.

Just do remember there are definitely times that a PP has or would have outperformed stocks, sometimes for very extended periods of time.

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:53 am

Since getting in the PP in March 2014, at this moment in time I am now pretty much at 0% return for 18 months in.

I will say that I have had less stress during that time period and looked and worried about the market much less.

When we are talking the market moving 300+ points daily, it is difficult not to watch. Frustrating, at least for now!

I feel like Bluto:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjIH1jdx2_A

Reub · Post by **Reub** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:59 am

Then haven't you lost money factoring in inflation?

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:06 am

Nothing to see here, everything's great!

Oh yeah, 3rd day of losses in a row. Only down 70K now.

When will you guys come to your senses?

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:33 am

Reub wrote: Then haven't you lost money factoring in inflation?

I suppose so. Say hi to me when I greet you at Walmart in 20 years...

Pointedstick · Post by **Pointedstick** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:45 am

buddtholomew wrote: Nothing to see here, everything's great!

Oh yeah, 3rd day of losses in a row. Only down 70K now.

When will you guys come to your senses?

When will YOU come to your senses? It is utterly perplexing to me that you invest in a portfolio you hate and believe is broken, but refuse to exit. Face it: the PP is not for you. You prefer stocks for your long-term and can't tolerate even the smallest shred of volatility for your short-term money. You tried the PP and found it didn't suit you. No shame in admitting that.

edsanville · Post by **edsanville** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:56 am

buddtholomew wrote: Nothing to see here, everything's great!

Oh yeah, 3rd day of losses in a row. Only down 70K now.

When will you guys come to your senses?

Come to my senses and invest in what?

iwealth · Post by **iwealth** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:57 am

buddtholomew wrote: Nothing to see here, everything's great!

Oh yeah, 3rd day of losses in a row. Only down 70K now.

When will you guys come to your senses?

Of course I wouldn't expect you to divulge details but if you started with $1 million, that's a measly 7% drawdown, well within the range of what'd be expected from even a 100% bond portfolio. I thought you were a wealthy guy. Given the negativity I'd have expected you to be down a LOT more than $70k.

Post by **dualstow** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:31 am

You're going to be richer in the long run, Budd.
But, keep these posts coming anyway. I'm enjoying the avatar.

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:38 am

iwealth wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: Nothing to see here, everything's great!

Oh yeah, 3rd day of losses in a row. Only down 70K now.

When will you guys come to your senses?
Of course I wouldn't expect you to divulge details but if you started with $1 million, that's a measly 7% drawdown, well within the range of what'd be expected from even a 100% bond portfolio. I thought you were a wealthy guy. Given the negativity I'd have expected you to be down a LOT more than $70k.

Typo, 7K and I'm speaking about today only.

dragoncar · Post by **dragoncar** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:16 pm

Pointedstick wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: Nothing to see here, everything's great!

Oh yeah, 3rd day of losses in a row. Only down 70K now.

When will you guys come to your senses?
When will YOU come to your senses? It is utterly perplexing to me that you invest in a portfolio you hate and believe is broken, but refuse to exit. Face it: the PP is not for you. You prefer stocks for your long-term and can't tolerate even the smallest shred of volatility for your short-term money. You tried the PP and found it didn't suit you. No shame in admitting that.

I might just exit the PP the next time it's beating the market. If stocks are beat down it might be a good time to switch back to a classic bogleheads. But today is not that day

Ps I would also like to get a life please send me your newsletter

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:29 pm

In your eyes, the PP can do no wrong. Why don't you admit that it is not working as expected. Down 2/4 years or 50% of the time I have been invested.

Post by **l82start** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:51 pm

buddtholomew wrote: In your eyes, the PP can do no wrong. Why don't you admit that it is not working as expected. Down 2/4 years or 50% of the time I have been invested.

i think i read somewhere in the small print that two year down turns, and occasionally consecutive ones were a part of the PP performance range..

anyway.. everything that has happened since i have owned a pp has been well within what i expected..
i think i am beginning to understand your frustration with it though, if i were in your situation i guess i would be too

mathjak107 · Post by **mathjak107** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:24 pm

while the pp cuts volatility there is no guarantee you will be up . there is no question it did its thing . looking at my hypothetical pp I still track I see it down 44k. that is 1/2 my model; . but my model is recovering at a faster rate being only down 60k from the near 90k at the lows .

the pp was only down 34k at the lows but is taking its lumps now but still not as bad .

if it is lower volatility you want you got exactly what you paid for

Post by **dualstow** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:20 pm

We know we cannot predict the markets, but one thing is easily predictable: the pp will lose some investors until it goes up again. When it goes up, it will attract new investors, and perhaps some repentants.

Reub · Post by **Reub** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:03 pm

Wasn't it nice when we had the two people who started this website always posting on here (and on the Bogleheads site beforehand) and they were always promoting, explaining and defending the PP? Why did they stop? I miss that!

Post by **dualstow** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:29 am

Reub wrote: Wasn't it nice when we had the two people who started this website always posting on here (and on the Bogleheads site beforehand) and they were always promoting, explaining and defending the PP? Why did they stop? I miss that!

I think it was Bob Dylan who said, I don't need to refute every allegation about me. I think it's enough that there is always *someone* on this forum at any given time who is willing to reiterate the principles. I mean, it's got to get boring after a while for the same person to have to keep doing it. The book is out there. The forum is out there. Why not just reread what they already wrote if it hasn't changed?

You make it sound like they started a scam and then ran off with ill-gotten gains.

I always wonder how 90-year-old Taylor Larimore keeps it up at Bogleheads.

LC475 · Post by **LC475** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:33 pm

buddtholomew wrote: In your eyes, the PP can do no wrong. Why don't you admit that it is not working as expected?

That one's easy: because it is working as I expected!

What more could I ask?

PP67 · Post by **PP67** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:48 pm

I may be a little too simple-minded on this but if I post the Peak-to-Trough results of a HBPP allocation for the time I've been using it and post the resulting CAGR on Tyler's terrific PP real returns over time plot and it is within the bands shown for that time period, I conclude that there is nothing really wrong with how the PP is performing up to this point... I may be currently below the median point but I am above the low point... I may have been hoping for the median return but I shouldn't complain if I am somewhere along that vertical range of outcomes...

http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/pe ... portfolio/

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