No where to hide

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10436
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: No where to hide

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Somebody, somewhere, sold when the market was being drawn down 1000, 900, 800, 400 points because of fear.
There's a recent tweet from Garry Shandling that reads
please buy my stock tomorrow
VENEZUELA: U.K. Judge Rejects Maduro’s Bid for Gold
LC475
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 427
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:23 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by LC475 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:33 pm

buddtholomew wrote: Is anyone disputing the fact that a US-centric equity allocation outperformed (past tense) the PP over an arbitrary period of time?
Over any arbitrary period of time?  Of course I would disagree with that, only because it's clearly not true.  I would not actually dispute such a claim, because it's so obviously and easily verifiably not true that it's not worth my time to actively dispute it.
Jack Jones
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 268
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:12 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by Jack Jones » Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:24 pm

Tyler wrote: I feel sorry for people who got hammered by stop losses this morning.  Trying to get in and out of a volatile market, even semi-passively, just doesn't always work out the way you planned.
Yeah, I witnessed this happen today. A guy I share an office with owns an ungodly amount of company stock. His stop loss triggers early this morning, selling 3000 shares. Then, after agonizing about it for awhile, he decides to buy it all back, but could only buy 2500 since the price had gone up.

I just kept to myself while all this was going on, but it was a bit painful. On the one hand, I wanted to say something, offer some advice, but on the other hand I felt like it might have been out of place.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2072
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:27 pm

LC475 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: Is anyone disputing the fact that a US-centric equity allocation outperformed (past tense) the PP over an arbitrary period of time?
Over any arbitrary period of time?  Of course I would disagree with that, only because it's clearly not true.  I would not actually dispute such a claim, because it's so obviously and easily verifiably not true that it's not worth my time to actively dispute it.
whatever dude. Get a life.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5938
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by technovelist » Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:46 pm

Tyler wrote:
I feel sorry for people who got hammered by stop losses this morning.  Trying to get in and out of a volatile market, even semi-passively, just doesn't always work out the way you planned.
Why do you feel sorry for them? I don't have any stop losses, because I'm not going to sell any of my holdings until I'm good and ready to sell.
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
User avatar
craigr
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 2540
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:26 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by craigr » Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:55 pm

technovelist wrote:I don't have any stop losses, because I'm not going to sell any of my holdings until I'm good and ready to sell.
This is definitely the correct answer. Stop losses promote bad portfolio management. I wrote about it a while ago why they're not the great idea that they seem to be:

https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... portfolio/
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5938
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by technovelist » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:35 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Tyler wrote: I feel sorry for people who got hammered by stop losses this morning.  Trying to get in and out of a volatile market, even semi-passively, just doesn't always work out the way you planned.
Yeah, I witnessed this happen today. A guy I share an office with owns an ungodly amount of company stock. His stop loss triggers early this morning, selling 3000 shares. Then, after agonizing about it for awhile, he decides to buy it all back, but could only buy 2500 since the price had gone up.

I just kept to myself while all this was going on, but it was a bit painful. On the one hand, I wanted to say something, offer some advice, but on the other hand I felt like it might have been out of place.
I figured out awhile ago that it is never a good idea to offer advice on such matters. If the person loses money following your advice, they will blame you, but if they make money they probably won't thank you.

I sometimes still slip up on this. Maybe there is a 12-step program for it?
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
Reub
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by Reub » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:15 pm

For anyone looking to try to outguess this violent correction please be aware that this might just be a false bottom and there could be more pain to come.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10436
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: No where to hide

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:30 pm

Reub wrote: For anyone looking to try to outguess this violent correction please be aware that this might just be a false bottom and there could be more pain to come.
So to summarize, violent bottom pain?
VENEZUELA: U.K. Judge Rejects Maduro’s Bid for Gold
Reub
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by Reub » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:48 am

Now that's gross anyway you look at it.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1805
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: No where to hide

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:40 am

And this is where I get disgusted with gold yet again.  Dollar down what, like 1.5% yesterday with no rise (even a small loss) in gold.  However, today, dollar up and gold getting hammered.

I guess I still expect to see it below 1000 before any meaningful rise.  Seems appropriate that a dip like that would be some sort of final flush out.
But what do I know?
User avatar
Desert
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3233
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2010 2:39 pm

Re: No where to hide

Post by Desert » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:11 am

Cortopassi wrote: And this is where I get disgusted with gold yet again.  Dollar down what, like 1.5% yesterday with no rise (even a small loss) in gold.  However, today, dollar up and gold getting hammered.

I guess I still expect to see it below 1000 before any meaningful rise.  Seems appropriate that a dip like that would be some sort of final flush out.
I think commodities and gold are simply "out of favor" at this time.  Holding a substantial gold allocation requires either a lot of patience, or better yet, the ability to ignore individual portfolio components.  I think we just need to sit back and let gold do its wandering about, only purchasing when a re-balancing event is triggered. 

Go Illini. 
Our greatest fear should not be of failure, but of succeeding at something that doesn't really matter. 
- D.L. Moody

Diversification means always having to say you're sorry.
Post Reply