No where to hide

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Xan
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Xan » Fri May 15, 2015 1:39 pm

It might also be that the power being out led to a lot of people not going to work.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by bedraggled » Fri May 15, 2015 2:33 pm

moda and stewardship,

Apologies have recently been discussed in "Best PLaces to Retire."  This makes perfect sense to me.  That was the big issue in the New Zealand conversation.  You might wish to take your apology stuff there.  The thread is, surprisingly, in "Other Discussions." 

Will our thread on the Manhattan meet, which went well,  be demoted to a general listing?  I do not know how to do this.  Nor do I know how to use the "buddy" feature.

Any help?
Last edited by bedraggled on Fri May 15, 2015 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Pet Hog » Fri May 15, 2015 2:41 pm

Cortopassi wrote: When I have my self driving car, I am all for traffic lights going away...
Self-driving cars was also my first thought when the traffic lights argument was raised.  If we don't have a government controlling traffic, we might devise alternative methods for road safety that don't involve lights at all.  Self-driving cars might obviate the need for any road signs.  It would be a completely private solution to a public problem.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by moda0306 » Fri May 15, 2015 3:27 pm

Pointedstick wrote:
AnotherSwede wrote: What's with government and traffic lights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFOo3e0nxSI
OMG CHAOS!!!!!!!!!! Don't you see! We need more CONTROL! Spontaneous order from chaos is an impossible, non-existent concept! Without a central authority we'll all be doooooooooooomed! Never mind that it appears to be working… it's just a ruse designed to lull you into a false sense of complacency! Soon there will be unspeakable, unimaginable calamities!
Doesn't that all seem a bit odd to you?

First off, there's congestion down the road somewhere screwing up the whole thing. Is that another place where the light was changed to a stop?

Further, it appears that their IS a requirement to stop by a couple parties, so it's not just a free for all. And I think it's common knowledge that one-way stops are more efficient than lights as long as they don't get too over-crowded on the stop sign and favor the highway goers over those trying to get on it too much.

To me, lights are about balancing the traffic of what would be a completely one-directional congestion. They're not meant to actually reduce it overall. For the most part anyway. Obviously accidents factor in.

In my experience, four way stops and lights suck, but are necessary to balance congestion amongst various directions. Roundabouts are where it's at. :)
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Re: No where to hide

Post by flyingpylon » Fri May 15, 2015 3:49 pm

moda0306 wrote: In my experience, four way stops and lights suck, but are necessary to balance congestion amongst various directions. Roundabouts are where it's at. :)
I live next to the roundabout capital of the U.S. and although they have their own issues, roundabouts do work pretty well, certainly better than 4-way stops.  But surely there is someone somewhere that will fight to preserve the status quo to save the union jobs at all the traffic light and stop sign factories.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Stewardship » Fri May 15, 2015 5:27 pm

Traffic could undoubtedly be optimized if the government weren't in charge of it.  Traffic signals could function under better algorithms that allow traffic to proceed more efficiently for everyone.

This discussion reminds me of local candidates 20 years ago, before we had rush hour congestion, promising to prevent Los Angeles style traffic here in Las Vegas.  What we have now is Los Angeles style traffic.  No apologies from anyone there.
In a world of ever-increasing financial intangibility and government imposition, I tend to expect otherwise.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by MachineGhost » Sat May 16, 2015 3:29 pm

Wow, 16 pages of hand wringing again in just a bit over two weeks?  I'm not going to even bother reading.

Some people need to get out of the PP.  There's no shame in admitting defeat.  There are less risky portfolios.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Sat May 16, 2015 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Stewardship » Sat May 16, 2015 4:27 pm

MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.
Such as?
In a world of ever-increasing financial intangibility and government imposition, I tend to expect otherwise.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by MachineGhost » Sat May 16, 2015 5:17 pm

Stewardship wrote:
MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.
Such as?
Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: No where to hide

Post by ochotona » Sat May 16, 2015 5:22 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
Stewardship wrote:
MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.
Such as?
Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.
Larry Swedroe?
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon May 18, 2015 8:29 am

MachineGhost wrote:
Stewardship wrote:
MachineGhost wrote: There are less risky portfolios.
Such as?
Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.
I looked for that briefly and couldn't find it, so does it have any significant amount of gold? If not, I don't consider it low-risk.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by rickb » Mon May 18, 2015 10:19 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
MachineGhost wrote:
Stewardship wrote: Such as?
Burn's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio.
I looked for that briefly and couldn't find it, so does it have any significant amount of gold? If not, I don't consider it low-risk.
MG must mean Swedroe's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio (Burns is the Couch Potato guy).  Swedroe's Fat Tail Minimization Portfolio is 30% stock (half small cap value and half emerging markets), 35% TIPS, and 35% short term treasuries.  No gold (Swedroe does not like gold).
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Stewardship » Mon May 18, 2015 2:23 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: I looked for that briefly and couldn't find it, so does it have any significant amount of gold? If not, I don't consider it low-risk.
+1
In a world of ever-increasing financial intangibility and government imposition, I tend to expect otherwise.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by LC475 » Wed May 20, 2015 2:13 pm

Ad Orientem wrote: Harry Browne was a smart guy but he was not infallible. Stating that government never works is just silly.
Well, I guess from that we can say that government works for you.  Bully.

That's great you have an opinion and are not afraid to voice it.  I am happy to allow you your opinion.  My only wish -- it is a simple wish -- is that those of your point of view would allow me to have mine.

Seems only civilized.

But then, perhaps I'm "just silly."
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Re: No where to hide

Post by LC475 » Wed May 20, 2015 2:25 pm

Stewardship wrote: Apologies for the conversation drift.  I'll start a new thread if I want to discuss the different possible options for sewage
On where to hide: if the Permanent Portfolio is performing badly, perhaps the first question to ask should be:

What economic state are we in?

Prosperity?  Recession?  Inflation?  Deflation?

So what is the answer?  If you have no answer to that question, perhaps best to hold off on action until you do have an answer.  Otherwise, you're walking off blindfolded, and in a place with an awful lot of cliffs.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Reub » Wed May 20, 2015 6:15 pm

Legendary Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle warns that there is an "awful lot" to fear in the current stock market and investors have few “good options.”

"This is a hard time to invest because there aren't a lot of good options to stocks, and bond yields are extremely low," he told CNBC.

He said the Federal Reserve’s continued insistence on low interest rates has only artificially boosted stock prices.

"That's a scary thing because it can't stay that way forever," he said. "So, I do advocate a cautious approach to investing."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTa ... id/645782/

Cash anyone?
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Re: No where to hide

Post by buddtholomew » Wed May 20, 2015 6:25 pm

Reub wrote: Legendary Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle warns that there is an "awful lot" to fear in the current stock market and investors have few “good options.”

"This is a hard time to invest because there aren't a lot of good options to stocks, and bond yields are extremely low," he told CNBC.

He said the Federal Reserve’s continued insistence on low interest rates has only artificially boosted stock prices.

"That's a scary thing because it can't stay that way forever," he said. "So, I do advocate a cautious approach to investing."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTa ... id/645782/

Cash anyone?
He also mentioned to stay out of long-term treasuries...sure wish he added unless they are part of a well diversified portfolio.

Poor guy...CNBC asked what he would tell the young investor who believes the entire market is manipulated? Mr. Bogle calmly attempted to explain dividends and earnings...I'm certain if any young investors were listening they most certainly would have already tuned out!
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Stewardship » Wed May 20, 2015 10:09 pm

buddtholomew wrote: Poor guy...CNBC asked what he would tell the young investor who believes the entire market is manipulated? Mr. Bogle calmly attempted to explain dividends and earnings...
So he didn't answer the question?
In a world of ever-increasing financial intangibility and government imposition, I tend to expect otherwise.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Reub » Wed Jun 03, 2015 2:20 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Reub wrote: Legendary Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle warns that there is an "awful lot" to fear in the current stock market and investors have few “good options.”

"This is a hard time to invest because there aren't a lot of good options to stocks, and bond yields are extremely low," he told CNBC.

He said the Federal Reserve’s continued insistence on low interest rates has only artificially boosted stock prices.

"That's a scary thing because it can't stay that way forever," he said. "So, I do advocate a cautious approach to investing."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTa ... id/645782/

Cash anyone?
He also mentioned to stay out of long-term treasuries...sure wish he added unless they are part of a well diversified portfolio.

Poor guy...CNBC asked what he would tell the young investor who believes the entire market is manipulated? Mr. Bogle calmly attempted to explain dividends and earnings...I'm certain if any young investors were listening they most certainly would have already tuned out!
The PP really sucks recently! Is it yesterday's news?
As I said once before, the place to hide is in cash.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:07 pm

LC475 wrote:


What economic state are we in?

Prosperity?  Recession?  Inflation?  Deflation?

deflation
Stay free, my friends.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:14 am

Deflation, and no help from bonds!
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Re: No where to hide

Post by barrett » Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:44 am

LC475 wrote: What economic state are we in?

Prosperity?  Recession?  Inflation?  Deflation?
Since 2008 we are in the midst of a massive deleveraging which I think so far is generally deflationary.
ochotona wrote: Deflation, and no help from bonds!
Yes, not in the short term but bonds performed strongly in 2008, 2011 & 2014. I'm not ready to dump mine yet. Ride them when they are doing well, take some profits, endure some bond pain, and (hopefully) repeat.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by 4x4 » Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:36 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
LC475 wrote:


What economic state are we in?

Prosperity?  Recession?  Inflation?  Deflation?

deflation

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner imho.

I think without the manipulation of markets through interest rates, this would be painfully obvious to all.  This central planning that adjusting interest rates to move markets, and might even place rules making items such as gold to be less appealing to the masses, makes it even more difficult to analyze markets and profit from an active management approach. 

This makes the PP's agnostic approach even more appealing imho.  For those believing they can time the market and fearful of losses, cash is likely a good place to be.  For how long is the question?  I have come to doubt my ability to time markets, and as such am still fascinated w PP as an option.  Not to say VPs aren't also a viable way to augment one's investment strategy, if used wisely, i.e. with money you won't need soon (afford to loose might be the common description, but imo who has money to loose?)
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Re: No where to hide

Post by flagator » Mon Jun 08, 2015 5:32 pm

Reub wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:
Reub wrote: Legendary Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle warns that there is an "awful lot" to fear in the current stock market and investors have few “good options.”

"This is a hard time to invest because there aren't a lot of good options to stocks, and bond yields are extremely low," he told CNBC.

He said the Federal Reserve’s continued insistence on low interest rates has only artificially boosted stock prices.

"That's a scary thing because it can't stay that way forever," he said. "So, I do advocate a cautious approach to investing."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTa ... id/645782/

Cash anyone?
He also mentioned to stay out of long-term treasuries...sure wish he added unless they are part of a well diversified portfolio.

Poor guy...CNBC asked what he would tell the young investor who believes the entire market is manipulated? Mr. Bogle calmly attempted to explain dividends and earnings...I'm certain if any young investors were listening they most certainly would have already tuned out!
The PP really sucks recently! Is it yesterday's news?
As I said once before, the place to hide is in cash.
Hello everyone!

I am new here.
I just recently went all in by investing in the PP on 4/22/15.

As of today I am -7.27 on long term treasuries
                        -0.48 on short term treasuries
                        -1.05 stocks
                        -1.27 gold

I have lost 2.52 % of my investment in just a bit over a month.

I feel like there is really no place to hide and all the components are going down simultaneously.

I did not expect this at all. I am not sure what kind of environment we have in the economy because the data provided by govt are very suspicious. I do not know what to do from here on, but I am certainly racking up losses pretty steeply.

Any comments would be appreciated.
                       
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Re: No where to hide

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jun 08, 2015 6:45 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves.


Honestly, if I was starting out with cash to invest, I'd sit on it and wait for some blood in the streets.  I know that is not what any top notch long term passive investment plan says to do.  But that's what I would do at this time. 
Stay free, my friends.
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