No where to hide

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Cortopassi
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Apr 30, 2015 2:50 pm

;D ;D ;D

Thanks.  Best laugh of the day.
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AdamA
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Re: No where to hide

Post by AdamA » Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:38 pm

dragoncar wrote: I find bitching is just a regular part of the PP.  It's really 20% stocks, 20% gold, 20% bonds, 20% cash, and 20% bitching.  Bitching is high right now so you probably need to rebalance out of it.
Good one.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Pet Hog » Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:28 pm

I just posted these numbers on the Bonds>"TLT Negative YTD" thread, but thought they might be of interest here, too.  The real yields over the last one, five, and ten years have all been greater than 5%.  This year has been slightly positive.  No cause for concern, yet, in my mind.
Pet Hog wrote: YTD returns (dividends reinvested; Dec 31, 2014 to Apr 30, 2015)
TLT: +0.63%
VTI: +2.27%
IAU: +0.00%
SHY: +0.62%
PP Total: +0.88% (+2.70% annualized)
Inflation: +0.56% (end Dec 2014 to end Mar 2015)
PP real: +0.32% (+0.98% annualized)

YOY returns (dividends reinvested; Apr 30, 2014 to Apr 30, 2015)
TLT: +16.57%
VTI: +12.72%
IAU: –8.48%
SHY: +0.82%
PP Total: +5.41%
Inflation: –0.40% (end Apr 2014 to end Mar 2015)
PP real: +5.81%
Pet Hog wrote: Five-year returns (dividends reinvested; Apr 30, 2010 to Apr 30, 2015)
TLT: +60.28%
VTI: +95.60%
IAU: –0.87%
SHY: +4.31%
PP Total: +39.83% (+6.94% annualized)
Inflation: +8.31% (end Apr 2010 to end Mar 2015; +1.61% annualized)
PP real: +5.33% annualized

Ten-year returns (dividends reinvested; Apr 30, 2005 to Apr 30, 2015)
TLT: +98.82%
VTI: +133.77%
IAU: +163.59%
SHY: +27.34%
PP Total: +105.88% (+7.49% annualized)
Inflation: +21.34% (end Apr 2005 to end Mar 2015; +1.95% annualized)
PP real: +5.54% annualized
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madbean
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Re: No where to hide

Post by madbean » Thu Apr 30, 2015 5:53 pm

I discovered the secret last year.

Don't look.

I resolved to not look for one full year and when I did last February I had WAY more money than I thought I would.

I'm thinking maybe it's a quantum mechanics/Schrodinger's cat thing. Looking at it affects the outcome so just don't do it.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:50 pm

Hmm, now I have to choose between not looking and bitching.
As the saying goes: if you don't look, you can't bitch.
forcemeat, ie stuffing, is etymologically related to ‘farce’. When you say something is a farce, a joke, you’re saying something is a bunch of stuffing.
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sixdollars
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Re: No where to hide

Post by sixdollars » Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:21 pm

dragoncar wrote:
Cortopassi wrote: I know, I know.  All I am doing is bitching.
I find bitching is just a regular part of the PP.  It's really 20% stocks, 20% gold, 20% bonds, 20% cash, and 20% bitching.  Bitching is high right now so you probably need to rebalance out of it.
Bitching sounds like a bad VP play, should just go 100% PP imo.

Everytime I hear someone complaining about the PP, this excerpt always comes to mind from William Bernstein.
And therein lies the real problem with the TPP: because of its huge tracking error relative to more conventional portfolios, it attracts assets and adherents during crises, then sheds them in better times. There?s nothing wrong with Harry?s portfolio?nothing at all?but there?s everything wrong with his followers, who seem, on average, to chase performance the way dogs chase cars.
"There’s nothing wrong with Harry’s portfolio—nothing at all—but there’s everything wrong with his followers, who seem, on average, to chase performance the way dogs chase cars."

-William J. Bernstein
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Re: No where to hide

Post by barrett » Fri May 01, 2015 9:24 am

madbean wrote: I discovered the secret last year.

Don't look.

I resolved to not look for one full year and when I did last February I had WAY more money than I thought I would.

I'm thinking maybe it's a quantum mechanics/Schrodinger's cat thing. Looking at it affects the outcome so just don't do it.
Two days ago I wouldn't have understood the reference but came upon a reference to Schrodinger's thought experiment a couple of nights ago. Alas, I am old enough so that I may forget who Schrodinger was two days hence!

sixdollars, thanks for the reminder on the Bernstein quote. It is a great one.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by buddtholomew » Fri May 01, 2015 9:33 am

And the rout continues...rationalize all you want, but the bottom line is the portfolio is doing absolutely nothing but racking up losses.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Kbg
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Kbg » Fri May 01, 2015 9:39 am

buddtholomew wrote: And the rout continues...rationalize all you want, but the bottom line is the portfolio is doing absolutely nothing but racking up losses.
OK, I'll go here...by my tracking YTD

100% SPY: .88% return
PP: .39% return

Seriously...if you are going to freak out about .49% maybe this investing stuff isn't for you.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Pointedstick » Fri May 01, 2015 10:00 am

Kbg wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: And the rout continues...rationalize all you want, but the bottom line is the portfolio is doing absolutely nothing but racking up losses.
OK, I'll go here...by my tracking YTD

100% SPY: .88% return
PP: .39% return

Seriously...if you are going to freak out about .49% maybe this investing stuff isn't for you.
+1

Some of these criticisms border on the ridiculous. The YTD tracking error of PP vs SPY is practically a rounding error. If not the PP, then what? Stocks, bonds, and gold have all had a rough and choppy year so far. Nothing goes up all the time and sometimes everything treads water for a bit. If this kind of stuff bothers you, you should be in all cash or on whatever portfolio makes you feel better even if it may be riskier (100% stocks, 60/40, etc). Or maybe put some of your money towards anti-anxiety medication of counseling or something. All this worrying over nothing is likely far more detrimental to your finances than obsessing that your investment portfolio isn't doing as well as you'd like.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
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Cortopassi
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Cortopassi » Fri May 01, 2015 10:13 am

I think the no looking is the best strategy, however, if people are like me, this is all tied into Quicken or some other financial program, so when I enter receipts from stores or other financial info, it is staring me right in the face, every single day, so it is something I need to/have learned to live with.

The optimistic view?  That all assets don't go down simultaneously and rebalancing lets me add to the laggards over the upcoming years.  That's the whole concept, right?

I have no better investment ideas or plans (outside of personal business ventures), so I stick with the PP.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri May 01, 2015 10:24 am

Pointedstick wrote:
Kbg wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: And the rout continues...rationalize all you want, but the bottom line is the portfolio is doing absolutely nothing but racking up losses.
OK, I'll go here...by my tracking YTD

100% SPY: .88% return
PP: .39% return

Seriously...if you are going to freak out about .49% maybe this investing stuff isn't for you.
+1

Some of these criticisms border on the ridiculous. The YTD tracking error of PP vs SPY is practically a rounding error. If not the PP, then what? Stocks, bonds, and gold have all had a rough and choppy year so far. Nothing goes up all the time and sometimes everything treads water for a bit. If this kind of stuff bothers you, you should be in all cash or on whatever portfolio makes you feel better even if it may be riskier (100% stocks, 60/40, etc). Or maybe put some of your money towards anti-anxiety medication of counseling or something. All this worrying over nothing is likely far more detrimental to your finances than obsessing that your investment portfolio isn't doing as well as you'd like.
+2
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