PP ....Where Did It Go

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portart
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PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by portart » Tue Apr 07, 2015 7:55 pm

Not that many years ago, PP was the darling of the investment world. PRPFX led all mutual funds in performance and this site was humming with activity. It's like a beach that has eroded. We don't have many cheerleaders left and the threads aren't as active. Do you think it will every find it's way back?
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Tyler
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by Tyler » Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:53 pm

Everyone's drunk on stock market returns since the last crash.  No worries -- when the bubble inevitably bursts you'll see a lot of new interest in the PP.  In the meantime, the people who stick with the PP are more likely to debate politics, modern monetary theory, and camping gear.  Being agnostic about the stock market frees up a lot of time and energy for other interests.
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:54 pm

This forum is plenty active, but I think that by and large, all the tough questions about the PP itself have been answered to a good enough standard that there's no reason to go over things again and again. At this point, the forum is pretty much a honeypot for highly intelligent people to talk about stuff in the Other Discussions section.

As for the portfolio's performance, we're in a stock bull market. During these times, people fall all over themselves to exit any position not sufficiently stock-like to chase those juicy returns. People should start noticing the PP again the next time the stock market craters and gold shoots up.
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Greg
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by Greg » Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:58 pm

Pointedstick wrote: At this point, the forum is pretty much a honeypot for highly intelligent people to talk about stuff in the Other Discussions section.
It's actually kinda interesting how this morphed like this. The forum originally was about the investing but agreed, once all the questions were for the most part answered, we liked each other enough to stay around and find new things to speak about. It's been said before but I'll say it again, this is a very intelligent and civil forum that is a great place to learn about new things happenin' in our world.
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by EdwardjK » Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:58 pm

If you think that PRPFX is representative of the HBPP, you are mistaken.

As stated elsewhere on these boards, the current composition of PRPFX is closer to an earlier incarnation of the HBPP.  But Harry modified the portfolio components to the current cash, equity, LTT and gold.  PRPFX includes silver and real estate, I believe.

PRPFX performance was great while the price of silver was rising.  But its fortunes sunk as the price of silver sunk.

The only person making money off of PRPFX is its portfolio manager, Michael Cuggino.
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by HB Reader » Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:10 am

Pointedstick wrote: This forum is plenty active, but I think that by and large, all the tough questions about the PP itself have been answered to a good enough standard that there's no reason to go over things again and again. At this point, the forum is pretty much a honeypot for highly intelligent people to talk about stuff in the Other Discussions section.

As for the portfolio's performance, we're in a stock bull market. During these times, people fall all over themselves to exit any position not sufficiently stock-like to chase those juicy returns. People should start noticing the PP again the next time the stock market craters and gold shoots up.
Yeah, the HBPP is really pretty simple.  You either buy into it or you don't.  I've followed it for so many years it is second nature to me.

I gave the Rowland/Lawson book to an old college friend of mine (who has a masters degree in economics) a couple of years ago.  "It's all just commonsense," he told me last year when I asked him about it.  Then I asked him if he knew anyone besides me that invested that way.  He just said "no" and shrugged.

The stock market kind of reminds me of the late 1990s.  Sooner or later something no one expects will happen.   
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by dualstow » Wed Apr 08, 2015 12:37 pm

It's not surprising that a lot of people moved on when gold started to fall and stocks really started taking off.

I am curious to see if a boom in treasuries would ever bring a significant number of people over to the pp. Perhaps not, because treasuries have already done well, and the fund PRPFX missed out compared to the HBPP.

I guess it's just us lucky chap-wearing few who have stayed the course.

Which is more likely, that stocks will keep rising or that the pp will shoot up again? I suppose I'm happy either way, though I wish I'd had more money to put into the pp in 2013-2014.
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by MachineGhost » Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:21 pm

portart wrote: Not that many years ago, PP was the darling of the investment world. PRPFX led all mutual funds in performance and this site was humming with activity. It's like a beach that has eroded. We don't have many cheerleaders left and the threads aren't as active. Do you think it will every find it's way back?
Yep, when we are on the way to double digit inflation again, the Johnny-Come-Latelys will appear.
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by barrett » Thu Apr 09, 2015 7:31 am

I'm still newish around here but I kind of doubt that the PP was ever the "darling of the investment world." It has three components in weightings that 99% of investors wouldn't even consider. Of the few that do, many of them discard the concept, most likely because the idea of holding an asset that is doing poorly for years just seems like idiocy, unless you grasp the underlying idea of being agnostic about the future. HB Reader's experience is very telling to me. Even someone who says "it's all common sense" doesn't change what he or she is doing.

I agree with what others are saying about stocks as well. Focussing on the carnage of 2008 just doesn't resonate with those who have been in stocks the last six years. They don't care that just maybe stocks are entering bubble territory due to super-low interest rates. They are just focussed on how much damn money they have made recently and, quite honestly, it's hard to blame them. I would wager that most stock investors don't even know how bad the period from 2000 to 2009 was. They don't think in terms of sequence of returns, the benefits of not having a lot of down years, etc. The question of how to invest almost never goes deeper than "should I be holding more bonds?" And even then, they are not talking about long bonds, a tool that can actually do something when their stock are taking a pounding.

If I am lucky, I'll live another 40 years or so and I don't believe that at any point in that time span individual investors will take the words "the market" or "the markets" to mean anything but stocks.

PP investors are a tiny minority. Hopefully for us the future will show that we have chosen a good investment path. Hopefully for everyone else, their chosen path will turn out OK as well.
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:33 am

barrett wrote: I'm still newish around here but I kind of doubt that the PP was ever the "darling of the investment world." It has three components in weightings that 99% of investors wouldn't even consider.
Ha, that's a good point. It had some inflows, but it was still barely a blip compared to traditional investments. I think people who got turned off of stocks often just invested in nothing for a while. Their loss, of course.
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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:07 am

Me, last 25 years:

Bonds?  Never invested before PP.  Not on radar.
Gold?  Started in 2009 in prep for the end of the world, never before in any fashion.
Cash?  Emergency fund only.  Money market at 5% was nice.  I long for those days.
Stocks?  Individual stocks and stock funds.  Mainly DODGX from 1995 to 2008.  It survived the tech bubble pretty well.  Got destroyed in 2008, and I sold near the lows.
Options?  Yeah, unfortunately I had a friend who showed me these.  Wish he never, ever did...

Never again.  I will make sure my kids follow some variant of PP.  Stress and time involved in stock trading has been the singlemost stupidest thing I've ever done in my life.

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Re: PP ....Where Did It Go

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:00 pm

7/10 or 70% of the years stocks rise according to the latest estimates presented to me by several financial advisors. These advisers, when presented with the PP concept, question why any reasonable investor would decide to hold only 25% of their portfolio in this asset class and the balance in gold, cash and fixed income instruments?

Conflict of interest aside, the above is certainly a valid argument until you take investor psychology into consideration and have an awareness of historical equity declines that left even the most seasoned market participants selling at the lows (forced liquidation or panic).

I personally have come to terms with behavioral psychology pitfalls and realize that I too am not immune to buying and selling at the most in opportune times. I also realize that I have retirement goals that may require me to hold a significant portion of my portfolio in equities. To appease my concerns I arrived at the following compromise - one that I have shared before and seems to work for me. I started investing in 2008/9 and was introduced to the PP in 2011.

Retirement Accounts (BH with a small amount of gold)
65/30/5 equities/fixed income/gold with 5.6 years FI duration.
S&P500, Extended Market, INT Developed, INT SC, Emerging Markets, REITS and PM.

Taxable Accounts (HBPP 4x25)
Additional cash that serves as an emergency fund and reduces FI duration to 5.6 years.

Total Portfolio
50/40/10 equities/fixed income/gold

Each allocation is managed individually with its own set of rebalancing bands. As I reach retirement age, I expect to decrease equities and increase gold to more closely align with the 4x25 portfolio. The transition will be gradual as I currently feel I can have my cake and eat it too...
Last edited by buddtholomew on Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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