Uncharted Waters?

[ochotona]

9 mm, .22LR, 12 ga shotshells. Good barter material.

[MachineGhost]

That's a very good point. Let's also remember that the long-term expected return of salt is zero. It could over-perform in certain baking conditions but it's basically just a chuck of white stuff that pays no dividends

Unlike salt which is critical to stay alive and thus endears a positive return over time, a shiny lump of gold has no use at all.  None!

[Tyler]

Unlike salt which is critical to stay alive and thus endears a positive return over time, a shiny lump of gold has no use at all.  None!

[EdwardjK]

Of all the uncertainty and concern n the world, the greatest is the Federal Reserve and its foreign counterparts who are forcing interest rates to near zero, and likely manipulating currency values and rates.

How this all ends may be very frightening.

[ochotona]

Red all across the board today, all four components. What a PITA.

[buddtholomew]

Red all across the board today, all four components. What a PITA.

Get used to it...the portfolio lets you down constantly.

[ochotona]

I guess risks are more correlated than we think

Red all across the board today, all four components. What a PITA.

Get used to it...the portfolio lets you down constantly.

[stuper1]

Gee, but if you just step back a little bit, gold, stocks, and bonds are all up since Jan 1, and the portfolio as a whole is up 1.5% in the first 6 weeks of 2015.  What's the problem?  You guys are like teenage girls constantly clicking on the latest news about the Kardashians.

If you want a little homework, check out the performance of the PP since 1/1/2000 versus any other portfolio.  How do they stack up?

[dragoncar]

Gee, but if you just step back a little bit, gold, stocks, and bonds are all up since Jan 1, and the portfolio as a whole is up 1.5% in the first 6 weeks of 2015.  What's the problem?  You guys are like teenage girls constantly clicking on the latest news about the Kardashians.

If you want a little homework, check out the performance of the PP since 1/1/2000 versus any other portfolio.  How do they stack up?

I'm more interested in portfolio performance 2010-2020. Plus, did you even see what Becky was wearing?  Omg

[MachineGhost]

Red all across the board today, all four components. What a PITA.

That makes no sense.  Cash cannot go down in real terms if the other three are.  It is the unit of account.

[ochotona]

You're right we have the attention spans of gnats. Too much going on in my life, the stress spills out elsewhere.

What's the problem?  You guys are like teenage girls constantly clicking on the latest news about the Kardashians.

[buddtholomew]

I'm the resident worrier don't you know?

Car broke down on the freeway this morning. Have to let loose somewhere...

[ochotona]

ST Bond Fund, not real Cash.

That makes no sense.  Cash cannot go down in real terms if the other three are.  It is the unit of account.

[Xan]

ST Bond Fund, not real Cash.

That makes no sense.  Cash cannot go down in real terms if the other three are.  It is the unit of account.

So what's with the top posting?  It's jarring, mostly because nobody else does it.

[dragoncar]

ST Bond Fund, not real Cash.

That makes no sense.  Cash cannot go down in real terms if the other three are.  It is the unit of account.

So what's with the top posting?  It's jarring, mostly because nobody else does it.

Better than interior posting.

[I Shrugged]

I know we talk about not looking.  I've said it before and I'll say it again.  I don't check my PP daily or even weekly.  Sometimes for whatever reason I'll take a look.  I will say "damn, I wonder what's dropping?"  Or, "Hey, good deal!"  Then what?  Nothing, that's what.  It has trended up over the longer term for me, so I am comfortable with it.

The bad part of this is that I gave up a hobby that I enjoyed.  But it is for the best.  Although, I seem to have replaced it with arguing politics in the basement here. :/

[sapperleader]

I will say that since I added the variable portion of our portfolio that I rarely look at what the assets are doing   We ran the numbers in January to see how good 2014 was to us for both halves of our portfolio, but fluctuations within a month or six are complete noise.  I also say this with having just re balanced down some of our bonds and stocks

[rickb]

I guess risks are more correlated than we think

Red all across the board today, all four components. What a PITA.

Get used to it...the portfolio lets you down constantly.

The PP does not include assets that are negatively correlated - it includes assets that each react in a predictable fashion to specific long term economic conditions, each increase over time, and are all close to uncorrelated.  If the 3 volatile assets were exactly uncorrelated it would mean that the 8 possible daily fluctuations (up-up-up, up-up-down, up-down-up, etc.) would all be equally probable.  This means you would expect all three of the volatile assets to go down (or up) about 1 out of 8 days.  Of course, stocks, long term bonds, and gold aren't exactly uncorrelated - but they're pretty darn close, see http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm .

[MachineGhost]

Boy, if this QE bubble lasts much longer, all of the gains since the start vs S&P500 will turn negative.  What a shame the stock picking skills are top notch.

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