As you can see the resource heavy Canadian stock market got hit hard by the pull back in oil price. However that exit of foreign investment and reduced economic activity resulted in lower currency value making gold positive relative to slight negative for US PP. Long bonds did not perform as good as the US I assume because of higher inflation since Canada imports a lot with a lower currency value.
Now one thing I've done with my PP that has helped this year is owning half Canadian, half US stock - helped with a 10-15% rise in currency and rise in US stock market. I just don't like how resource heavy the Canadian market is. In times of prosperity, the market won't necessarily go up since commodities are cyclical. 63% of the Canadian index is financials, mining and oil/gas - the S&P500 by comparison is 29%...
Hmmm, my numbers are quite different. Using the adjusted closing prices (includes dividends) from Yahoo! Finance I get the following:
Canadian 4x25 PP +9.85% (includes dividends and interest)
Unhedged US stocks (SPY) priced in Canadian Dollars increased 24.2% (CAD weakened 9.3% against USD), so this would boost the returns for a Canadian PP depending on allocation to US stocks.
Last edited by Gosso on Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Canadian 4x25 PP +9.85% (includes dividends and interest)
Unhedged US stocks priced in Canadian Dollars increased 22.8% (CAD weakened 9.3%), so this would obviously boost the returns for a Canadian PP depending on allocation to US stocks.
I used XIU but I see the ETF starting 2014 at 19.6 and not 19.18.
Gold I used the raw value of the metal and not an ETF - most people (myself included) seem to buy physical.
Bonds I used XLB, not sure how that compares to ZFL and similarly for cash I used XSB.
I might have forgotten dividends...
Last edited by Stunt on Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Canadian 4x25 PP +9.85% (includes dividends and interest)
Unhedged US stocks priced in Canadian Dollars increased 22.8% (CAD weakened 9.3%), so this would obviously boost the returns for a Canadian PP depending on allocation to US stocks.
I used XIU but I see the ETF starting 2014 at 19.6 and not 19.18.
Gold I used the raw value of the metal and not an ETF - most people (myself included) seem to buy physical.
Bonds I used XLB, not sure how that compares to ZFL and similarly for cash I used XSB.
I might have forgotten dividends...
For XLB I got 16.5% ((23.62/20.27)-1). So I'm pretty sure the only thing you're missing are the dividends, which are accounted for in the adjusted close at Yahoo! Finance. The default for calculating past returns should be the adjusted close, the only time the pure closing price is needed is for technical analysis.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
My PP return for 2014 was 9.58%. Surprised me, as my PP started out a bit off balance.
It's interesting how we so easily focus on the bad times, and forget to notice as the portfolio is forging steadily upward. Like the tortoise that beats the hare to the finish line!
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
My PP return for 2014 was 9.58%. Surprised me, as my PP started out a bit off balance.
It's interesting how we so easily focus on the bad times, and forget to notice as the portfolio is forging steadily upward. Like the tortoise that beats the hare to the finish line!
Sophie - IIRC, you are Canadian...What were your holdings last year and weightings?
Did you end up diversifying with some US equity exposure?
I'm US not Canadian. I forget the balances at the beginning of the year, but bonds particularly were creeping close to the 15% rebalance mark and gold was below it. I "rebalanced" mainly by going with a standard Boglehead 50/50 in my active retirement account, due to inability to place gold there, and used new contributions to bring the PP more into balance - it's now close to ideal 25x4.
If it matters, I keep the stock portion balanced at 80% US total market and 20% international. The latter did not do too well this year, so between that and the low bond % I expected more of a performance penalty. Nice surprise that this wasn't the case.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
Reub wrote:
Enough with 2014. How is 2015 looking so far?
Typical January pullback in stocks so far. Nothing abnormal. All sytems nominal.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
My PP-ish did 7.1% in 2014; started 2014 at roughly 13% "Cash" (STB), 20% Gold, 25% LTT, 42% Stock (~40% of Stock Intl), with a bit of tinkering to get to this allocation, which is more PP-ish than late 2013.... (in an IRA, won't touch for many years, and doesn't include my emergency fund, which partly the diff from pure PP....)
Rebalanced at start of 2015 to be around 8/25/25/42
0.3% YTD (through 1/6/15) according to Vanguard....
