Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

Winning asset for 2015

Poll runs till Mon Dec 22, 2059 2:28 am

Gold
18
40%
Stocks
15
33%
Cash
4
9%
Bonds
7
16%
Kim Kardashian photos
1
2%
 
Total votes: 45
tennpaga
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Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015

Post by tennpaga » Fri Dec 19, 2014 9:40 am

It's not my kind of thing, but others seem to like it, so have at it!
Last edited by tennpaga on Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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sophie
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Re: HBPP Predictions for 2015

Post by sophie » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:05 am

OK I'll bite...but no percentages, just rankings in order of performance:

Gold up
Stocks up
Bonds down

Of course, "bonds down" has been the prediction for 6 years now and we're all 0 for 6.  Trying for 0 for 7.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." -- Benjamin Franklin
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Re: HBPP Predictions for 2015

Post by Lowe » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:09 am

The Fed continues to delay raising the FFR, citing caution in the face of uncertainty and continuing low inflation.  What they don't say is that nothing they do can have a positive impact in the face of US demographic decline.

So rates remain the same, or decline somewhat, as worried foreigners exchange their currency for dollars to buy treasurys.  Some sources of worry are that Putin does not make concessions, even with Russia in recession, and that China continues to increase defense spending.

Russian economic output does not reverse its decline, even after OPEC allows oil production to fall.  OPEC relenting has no effect on US equity, which continues its upward march, with increasing volatility.  Gold continues on its downward trend, albeit with episodic jumps due to uncertainty around the fiscal policy of the new Congress.

This is to say, more of the same.
LC475
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Re: HBPP Predictions for 2015

Post by LC475 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:42 am

Must have poll!  Like last year!

I predict winningest asset will be: Bonds!

That way, right or wrong, at least I will be alone.  :P
tennpaga
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Re: HBPP Predictions for 2015

Post by tennpaga » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:49 am

LC475 wrote: Must have poll!  Like last year!

I predict winningest asset will be: Bonds!

That way, right or wrong, at least I will be alone.  :P
From your fingers to my brain to my fingers. :)
goodasgold
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Re: Poll: HBPP Predictions for 2015

Post by goodasgold » Fri Dec 19, 2014 11:44 am

Hey, what kind of poll is this, anyway? You forgot to mention beanie babies and tulips!

Joe Granville could have done a better job predicting the Great L.A. Earthquake.
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Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015

Post by Professor Disorientation » Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:05 pm

I am going out on a limb and say Gold will be the best performing asset in 2015. Wait and see what happens when greed turns into fear. This is not going to end pretty-too much investor complacency and Fed arrogance will lead to a stampede for the exits.
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Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:44 pm

As the resident doom porner, I voted for cash! :D
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015

Post by Mike59 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:13 pm

Bonds and Stocks and US dollar all have had quite the run up. I think gold is long overdue for a mean reversion rally, it has my bet in 2015.
"Thanks, give me the gold" - Kyle Bass
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Re: Poll: HBPP Predictions for 2015

Post by LC475 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:51 pm

TennPaGa wrote:
goodasgold wrote: Hey, what kind of poll is this, anyway? You forgot to mention beanie babies and tulips!

Joe Granville could have done a better job predicting the Great L.A. Earthquake.
Hmm.  Not sure where the K.K. photos option came from.  I deleted it.
Ha!  A reference to last year's thread.  I thought it was fine as a proxy for other/none of the above/I refuse to participate in your childish tomfoolery.  At least one person had already voted for it!
tennpaga
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Re: Poll: HBPP Predictions for 2015

Post by tennpaga » Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:45 pm

LC475 wrote:
TennPaGa wrote:
goodasgold wrote: Hey, what kind of poll is this, anyway? You forgot to mention beanie babies and tulips!

Joe Granville could have done a better job predicting the Great L.A. Earthquake.
Hmm.  Not sure where the K.K. photos option came from.  I deleted it.
Ha!  A reference to last year's thread.  I thought it was fine as a proxy for other/none of the above/I refuse to participate in your childish tomfoolery.  At least one person had already voted for it!
Right you are!

l82start had added in the K.K. option just for that purpose.  Back in it goes! Sorry for removing it.
Last edited by tennpaga on Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kbg
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Re: Poll: HBPP Component Predictions for 2015

Post by Kbg » Sat Dec 20, 2014 12:37 am

What the heck and totally useless... ???

Stocks - Down to slightly up by year's end
Bonds - Flat to slightly down
Gold - Up

Prognostication...

The bull turns into a bear, but a regular one...like -15 to -25%
Bonds basically go nowhere counterbalanced by the bear in stocks (bonds up), down on the recovery with a slight return to Fed normality
Gold, where the money goes because there isn't anything else to go to
Foreign stocks may have a good year, because this one sucked so much for them

See ya next year!
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