Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

[buddtholomew]

There results are all pre-dividend too aren't they? Rates/dividends on equal quads come to 1.4% (0.9% cash, 2.8% bond, 1.9% stock, 0% gold)... So PP was down probably less than 1.99%.

Maybe there was some anomalie that made Jan1 entries especially good?... Otherwise I can't understand the hysteria that went on here... Perhaps it is just the pain of "missing out" on being 100% stocks in such a ridiculous year.

I tried to put into context the "hysteria" I personally felt. Obviously this comment was overlooked or completely ignored.

A reasonable PP investor would agree with your comment if looking at the PP in isolation. When comparing the annual PP returns to a 60/40 SPY/BND allocation, the results are less impressive. The latter returned 14.2% in 2013 for a difference of 16.6%

During the 2008 time frame, the PP returned 1.5% and the 60/40 allocation -22.1% for a net difference of 23.6%

If we praise the PP for its stellar performance in 2008 when compared to a traditional 60/40 allocation, then we should scrutinize the 2013 returns using the same benchmark.

[k9]

My own implementation of the PP (1/3 cash, 1/3 gold, 1/3 stocks, eurozone) is down 3% this year, or 4% in real €. I have a bigger allocation to gold (wohoo, 2nd biggest bear market ever for 1/3 of my portfolio !) than the official PP, so this is a very good return for the strategy IMO.

I'm quite happy, actually. Before 2013, I was mostly invested in gold and just switched to the 33/33/33 PP at the fall of 2012 Yes, you can call that blind luck.

[Odysseusa]

Here are prices of SHY, TLT, GLD, VTI as of, including dividends and splits if applicable. 

12/31/2012 to 12/31/2013.

SHY: 84.20 - 84.38
TLT: 117.60 - 101.86
GLD: 162.02 - 116.12
VTI: 71.88 - 95.92

Does anyone know how to calculate the return for 2013 manually?

[Harry.Browne]

12/31/2012 to 12/31/2013.

SHY: 84.20 - 84.38
TLT: 117.60 - 101.86
GLD: 162.02 - 116.12
VTI: 71.88 - 95.92

Does anyone know how to calculate the return for 2013 manually?

The formula for return = enddate / begindate -1

SHY = 84,38 / 84,20 - 1 = 0,21377 %
TLT = 101,86 / 117,60 - 1 = - 13,38436 %
GLD = 116,12 / 162,02 - 1 = -28,32984 %
VTI = 95,92 / 71,88 - 1 = 33,44462 %

For your calculation you do it easyer:

SHY = 84,38 / 84,20 = 1,002
TLT = 101,86 / 117,60 = 0,866
GLD = 116,12 / 162,02 = 0,717
VTI = 95,92 / 71,88 = 1,334

For Permanent Portfolio without any changes during the begindate and enddate the return is:

25 * 1,002 + 25 * 0,866 + 25 * 0,717 + 25 * 1,334 =  97,986

Now you can use the formula from the beginn:

97,986 / 100 - 1 = - 2,014 %

This is the performance for a depot without any changes during the time of calculation. This must not be your personel
return. Maybe there were some proceeds or payments in your portfolio. That changes everything for you.

sorry english is not my native language