Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Kshartle
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by Kshartle » Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:53 pm

Pointedstick wrote:
Kshartle wrote: See I think those are easy because they are objective. What the heck is the CPI supposed to represent? Why does the computation method change so often?
It's supposed to measure the change in prices, not the composition or size of the money supply.

I don't know about you all, but the prices I pay for things didn't increase by 4.2% or 8.2% during 2013.
Maybe not the price of gold....but stocks, housing, food, healthcare, education all sure did.
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by brownehead » Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:58 pm

craigr wrote: I posted a summary of this year's results. Looks like around -2.4% for the year:

https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133 ... 3-results/
As I said in the blog, if you check again 2013 returns in morningstar the results are a bit better
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sophie
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by sophie » Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:22 pm

MediumTex wrote: Only a 2.4% loss?

Wow.  That really is very impressive, given that based upon the day-to-day posts here it often felt like the wheels had completely fallen off of the PP.
The 2.4% assumes that the portfolio's asset allocation was perfectly even at the start of 2013.  Mine had already drifted by then, was heavier in stocks and lighter in gold.  When I calculated my return, I found that the portfolio was down only 0.6%.

Pretty amazing considering the gold crash.  If this is what the PP does when there's a major downturn in one of the assets, then I am not at all regretting going this route.  Admittedly, I'd be a lot happier if I'd started a few years earlier, though.
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I Shrugged
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Jan 02, 2014 8:13 pm

My own PP was -1.6%.  It is not pure PP but it's a reasonable facsimile thereof.  I guess I can deal with that performance.  When I see my SP500 index fund gained 32%, that hurts.  Still, I feel the same as Craig. 
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jan 03, 2014 1:05 am

Looks like the PP is up +0.3% YTD for 2014, for a projected annualized gain of 113%!

;D
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jan 03, 2014 1:19 am

Kshartle wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: I don't know about you all, but the prices I pay for things didn't increase by 4.2% or 8.2% during 2013.
Maybe not the price of gold....but stocks, housing, food, healthcare, education all sure did.
+1

Plus, Amazon increased their free-shipping-minimum from $25 to $35 in 2013 :'(
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by Kshartle » Fri Jan 03, 2014 4:00 am

Tortoise wrote:
Kshartle wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: I don't know about you all, but the prices I pay for things didn't increase by 4.2% or 8.2% during 2013.
Maybe not the price of gold....but stocks, housing, food, healthcare, education all sure did.
+1

Plus, Amazon increased their free-shipping-minimum from $25 to $35 in 2013 :'(
I think the big mac went up by 6.5% also :)

Now I realize this is only one sandwich.......but I suspect it doesn't go up while everything else stays the same. Probably all fast food went up by a similar amount unless the special sauce is truly as unique and special as it tastes.
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by frommi » Fri Jan 03, 2014 4:09 am

Kshartle wrote: I think the big mac went up by 6.5% also :)

Now I realize this is only one sandwich.......but I suspect it doesn't go up while everything else stays the same. Probably all fast food went up by a similar amount unless the special sauce is truly as unique and special as it tastes.
Thats called pricing power and is one reason MCD can raise their profits faster than inflation. KO and a lot of other consumer stocks with great brands like PG,CL or UL have this kind of pricing power.
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by Kshartle » Fri Jan 03, 2014 4:32 am

frommi wrote:
Kshartle wrote: I think the big mac went up by 6.5% also :)

Now I realize this is only one sandwich.......but I suspect it doesn't go up while everything else stays the same. Probably all fast food went up by a similar amount unless the special sauce is truly as unique and special as it tastes.
Thats called pricing power and is one reason MCD can raise their profits faster than inflation. KO and a lot of other consumer stocks with great brands like PG,CL or UL have this kind of pricing power.
You really think they can raise their prices faster than competitors and help profits rather than hurt them?
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:11 am

I also have my 3 yr return: 3.7%.
My 5 year is 7.9%, and that will get a nice boost after this February, when 5 years earlier the market stopped crashing and turned upward.
However, my 5 year portfolio did not begin as a PP.  I converted 4.x years ago.

3.7% for 3 years seems rather anemic.  Has anyone else got a 3 year number?
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by frommi » Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:08 am

Kshartle wrote: You really think they can raise their prices faster than competitors and help profits rather than hurt them?
Yes. Do you buy Pepsi instead of Coke because its 3 cent cheaper?
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Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Post by Kshartle » Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:02 am

frommi wrote:
Kshartle wrote: You really think they can raise their prices faster than competitors and help profits rather than hurt them?
Yes. Do you buy Pepsi instead of Coke because its 3 cent cheaper?
Sometimes I even buy RC cola for a lot less.

This isn't the point though. My point is McDonalds should be able to charge a premium over other equivilant burgers because of branding, but above that fixed premium they can't raise prices at a faster rate than competitors without losing market share. They can't raise the price of a burger by $2 everytime the competition raises by $1 because at some point their branding premium is all used up. They should already be maximizing it or be very very close...they aren't dumb.

Maybe we can see how the big mac price increase compares to the other burger and fast food joints although I'm not too interested. I know the Whopper jr. went from $1 to $1.20 last year.....a 20% increase after staying at a buck for several years. It's also pitiful now. There is a BK across from my company and we occasionally drop in for a quick getaway at lunch. The "value" burgers seem extremely pitiful now.
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