systemskeptic wrote:
At the very least, it will be significantly under-performing if it is losing ground while other economies advance. It seems rooted in your beliefs that the US can only stay in a top position?
I do not have that belief at all. I just recognize that the U.S. is currently in the top position and I must respect that as long as it is the case--i.e., I should assume that I can't accurately predict when this will change, though my gold holdings would protect me when and if this transition occurred.
Lastly, it is already established that you do not believe in any scenarios other than the PP maintaining it's past performance, so I do not think there is much to gain by further raising and dismissing specific scenarios.
But you haven't told me of a scenario that would be outside the economy expanding or contracting and the general price level increasing or declining.
I'm listening, though, if you can think of one. The one you posted above didn't address whether the U.S. price level was rising or falling. If you could provide that information I can respond to your post.
The idea that past returns will continue as they have is a dangerous belief that IMHO anyone should be able to recognize.
Obviously, and I have always gone to great lengths to emphasize that past performance can help to validate a theory, but past performance on its own should never be used to predict future performance.