craigr wrote:
I'm waiting until close of markets Monday to adjust what I posted. There is the readership that wants returns posted early, and my own experience that Morningstar, etc. move the final numbers around as funds report final results for the year. That's why I put this in the early post now:
I am hoping for a link at the top of the page to show the past performance and 2012 performance. If it also reported Cost of Living data we would all enjoy a quick and official reference to Real Annual Returns on the PP. Also I think new members would find it helpful.
HB Reader wrote:In real life there is no way to plan with precision for events that involve the number of variables (economic, psychological, political, environmental, etc.) we see reflected in the investment markets. It is infinitely better to have a simple and flexible investment strategy that is profitable under normal circumstances, yet robust enough to survive most extreme "black swan" events intact.
Security expert Bruce Schneier talks about this all the time when criticizing the government's reaction to terrorism. He calls it "security theater", because they essentially write "scripts" trying to predict the next specific attack, instead of being broadly prepared for any eventuality. Because a specific reaction to a specific threat merely means that the attacker will choose a different vector next time.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
- H. L. Mencken
