25 x 4 or 33 x 3

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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dualstow
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by dualstow »

johnnywitt wrote: Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:37 pm Well, first of all, if you do this, you're gonna have to take down the HB Avatar. >:D

Totally agree O0
Then again, I don’t know how cash is performing in Portugal or wherever you are, frugal.
US treasurys are finally paying significant interest. Even when interest is paltry, however, cash serves its purpose.
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by flyingpylon »

blue_ruin17 wrote: Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:20 pm I always laugh when someone states they are "100% stocks", yet the have 1-2 years of living expenses in cash... so, they aren't actually 100% stocks, then. This puts the PP at a disadvantage when it is backtested against other asset allocation strategies that exclude cash savings. I like to water-down portfolios with cash when comparing them to the PP for this reason.
I always try to do this when listening to people talk about their "bucket strategy" as well. A "lazy portfolio" just suits me better and seems like less work.
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by mathjak107 »

i run 3 core portfolios .

one for short term spending which is 25% equities and 75% assorted fixed income

another for the intermediate term which is 55-60% equities and a growth and income model

and finally a 100% equity model consisting of berkshire and vti

plus 2 years of cash , one of which we spend down to zero pretty much over the year

i track the overall allocation which including all cash is 52/37/11 cash .

while i can say what each model does return wise i don’t really bother doing it in its entirety since money is coming out daily as we spend .

my only benchmark i really care about is our remaining balance since each years draw rate is based on the balance .

we are 8 years in to retirement and despite spending 6 figures a year from our money we are considerably higher then the day we retired .

so i dont really track over all returns at all , those days are long gone for us.

only reason i know the returns is because these are published portfolios that are tracked by the newsletter
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frugal
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by frugal »

Hello 👋🏻 there!

10 years after inception I didn’t need cash to rebalance the other 3 assets.

I stoped adding new money to CASH 💰

Now I have :
29% gold
29 Ltb
29 stocks
16% cash stb

Can you please advise and help me.

🙏 regards
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frugal
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by frugal »

Hi,

Hope you are cool!

our house/apartment, our business, our future inheritance and other assets cannot be considered CASH or SHORT TERM BONDS?

Thank you!

:o

:)
whatchamacallit
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by whatchamacallit »

I kind of do 33 x 3 but use a total bond fund more like an intermediate bond fund. I also save cash separately.

It has had more volatility historically but a bit higher return.
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frugal
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by frugal »

whatchamacallit wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:00 pm I kind of do 33 x 3 but use a total bond fund more like an intermediate bond fund. I also save cash separately.

It has had more volatility historically but a bit higher return.
Nice

👍

Where do you check return ?

What is the % difference of return and drawdown?

Regards
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dualstow
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by dualstow »

frugal wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2024 12:56 pm
our house/apartment, our business, our future inheritance and other assets cannot be considered CASH or SHORT TERM BONDS?
No way.
frugal, one of the superpowers of cash is that you can use it immediately. It’s there. And when you sell it, you don’t sell it at a loss because a dollar is a dollar. You don’t generate taxes because a euro is a euro.

Short term bonds are pretty close to the above.

A future inheritance is not quite guaranteed. It isn’t there until you get it.
Your dwelling may not sell at the price you’d hoped for. It may not sell it all. It’s not cash until you’ve sold it (and paid the taxes).
Similarly, your business may not generate the earnings you’d expected, or you may go out of business. It’s important, like everything else you’ve listed, but it is absolutely not equivalent to cash.
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frugal
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by frugal »

dualstow wrote: Mon Jan 22, 2024 7:48 am
frugal wrote: Sat Jan 20, 2024 12:56 pm
our house/apartment, our business, our future inheritance and other assets cannot be considered CASH or SHORT TERM BONDS?
No way.
frugal, one of the superpowers of cash is that you can use it immediately. It’s there. And when you sell it, you don’t sell it at a loss because a dollar is a dollar. You don’t generate taxes because a euro is a euro.

Short term bonds are pretty close to the above.

A future inheritance is not quite guaranteed. It isn’t there until you get it.
Your dwelling may not sell at the price you’d hoped for. It may not sell it all. It’s not cash until you’ve sold it (and paid the taxes).
Similarly, your business may not generate the earnings you’d expected, or you may go out of business. It’s important, like everything else you’ve listed, but it is absolutely not equivalent to cash.
Hi dual

Although I have cash in ETF and my portfolio is low compared to the rest ?

Regards mate
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dualstow
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by dualstow »

Could you restate that? I’m not sure if you’re saying your portfolio is low on cash or you have a small portfolio overall. Your portfolio size shouldn’t change things.
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frugal
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by frugal »

dualstow wrote: Wed Jan 24, 2024 4:00 pm Could you restate that? I’m not sure if you’re saying your portfolio is low on cash or you have a small portfolio overall. Your portfolio size shouldn’t change things.
Hi

Removing cash the DD max increases but also the profitability, do you know how much?

Regards
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by vnatale »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPZUgfOqAdg

Chicago - 25 or 6 to 4 - 7/21/1970 - Tanglewood (Official)
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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dualstow
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Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

Post by dualstow »

I do not.
You could run it through Tyler’s https://portfoliocharts.com/
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