Permanent Portfolio Forum
https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/
https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12866
I did on my gold when it spiked to 2k but I did not follow the rules! But I’ve been pretty good since. One way I have been able to force my reluctance to buy losers is to “go halfsies” if I need to buy / sell something, I give myself license to do half the amount. It’s freed me of always thinking about all or nothing. Its helping me build the muscle memory of doing the opposite of what my brain is telling me to do.
I’m looking hard at 80 Wellesley / 20 goldHal wrote: ↑Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:58 pm+1 That's why I like the concept of the two fund (GoldSmith) PP. We run an extended family retirement fund, and all parties have to sign off on any purchases or sales due to Gov't requirements. Makes management much easier.ppnewbie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:07 pm One thing I am proud of is that I worked up the courage to purchase 30 year treasuries recently. One interesting thing about the PP / GB is that it makes you confront financial behaviors. I was talking to a friend and telling him that your body physically will not allow you to step off a cliff. Thats what if feels like, at least to me, to buy a big loser and sell a big winner.
How about a US version of a 2 fund GB ie 20% Gold, 80% VDBA
(https://fund-docs.vanguard.com/ETF-Vang ... S_VDBA.pdf)
I also find it more palatable to spread out rebalancing rather than doing it all at once. It becomes more of an art than a science. I assume that I’ll never have perfect timing on trades and that I will be buying through a dip or selling through a peak. It helps to avoid reacting to temporary spikes. To lower my expectations I also assume it adversely affects performance, though sometimes it works in my favor. But if you’re someone that only checks once a year or something then it probably makes sense to just follow the rules.ppnewbie wrote: ↑Tue Jan 03, 2023 8:27 pmI did on my gold when it spiked to 2k but I did not follow the rules! But I’ve been pretty good since. One way I have been able to force my reluctance to buy losers is to “go halfsies” if I need to buy / sell something, I give myself license to do half the amount. It’s freed me of always thinking about all or nothing. Its helping me build the muscle memory of doing the opposite of what my brain is telling me to do.
I was close for LTTs. 16.7% But now they are going up.
SHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .
On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%
This is true but shy does tend to outperform cash ..in fact even with the drop it has still outperformed t bills the last 5 and 10 yearsjohnnywitt wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:43 pmSHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .
On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%
PV indicates that for a PP with T-Bills (CASHX), when you click the 'Drawdowns' tab/buttonmathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:34 amThis is true but shy does tend to outperform cash ..in fact even with the drop it has still outperformed t bills the last 5 and 10 yearsjohnnywitt wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:43 pmSHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .
On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%
Interesting chart, thanks Mark! I found a similar one on this page that goes back even farther, to 1929.Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:56 am 2022 was the only year since 1989 that had negative returns for both equities and bonds.
Equity and Bond Scatter Plot.png
Excellent — thanksTyler wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:32 am I measured the PP with a real return (including inflation) that was down a little more than 18%. Yes, that's the worst year I have on record since 1970. That may not sound very good until you realize that it was still in the top third of all portfolio options and still quite tame compared to other all-time worst cases. Pain is relative, and it was a tough year for everyone.
More here: Learning the Hard Way: 2022 Portfolio Rankings
In the interest of not being a hypocrite, I'm moving from 1 yr Bills to 50/50 3mo Bills & 2yr Notes this month. I think, for me, this strikes a pretty good balance of having liquidity & some gain on your Cash. I guess I will no longer have a true blue HBPP if I do, in fact, proceed with this move.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:34 amThis is true but shy does tend to outperform cash ..in fact even with the drop it has still outperformed t bills the last 5 and 10 yearsjohnnywitt wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:43 pmSHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .
On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%
johnnywitt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 1:59 pm
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:34 am
johnnywitt wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:43 pm
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm
Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .
On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%
SHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch.
This is true but shy does tend to outperform cash ..in fact even with the drop it has still outperformed t bills the last 5 and 10 years
In the interest of not being a hypocrite, I'm moving from 1 yr Bills to 50/50 3mo Bills & 2yr Notes this month. I think, for me, this strikes a pretty good balance of having liquidity & some gain on your Cash. I guess I will no longer have a true blue HBPP if I do, in fact, proceed with this move.
Then again, HB said the equity portion was to be S&P 500: he didn't say anything about a Total Stock Market equity position, if I recall. That came from Rowland & Med. Tex., just like mixing in all, or part STT in the HBPP. Maybe I'm wrong though.
Yes, he recommended some no load mutual funds that were growth and one that was value. He said to buy 3 funds that were all large cap.vnatale wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:55 pmI think you are correct. At the time the book was written did either exist? My memory says he was saying invest in large growth funds?johnnywitt wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 1:59 pmIn the interest of not being a hypocrite, I'm moving from 1 yr Bills to 50/50 3mo Bills & 2yr Notes this month. I think, for me, this strikes a pretty good balance of having liquidity & some gain on your Cash. I guess I will no longer have a true blue HBPP if I do, in fact, proceed with this move.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:34 amThis is true but shy does tend to outperform cash ..in fact even with the drop it has still outperformed t bills the last 5 and 10 yearsjohnnywitt wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:43 pmSHY ain't part if a HBPP: a real T-Bill Ladder is, but BIL will do in a pinch.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .
On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%
Then again, HB said the equity portion was to be S&P 500: he didn't say anything about a Total Stock Market equity position, if I recall. That came from Rowland & Med. Tex., just like mixing in all, or part STT in the HBPP. Maybe I'm wrong though.