2022 Returns

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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stpeter
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2022 Returns

Post by stpeter » Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:17 pm

It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?
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foglifter
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by foglifter » Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:31 pm

My slightly modified GB is down -8.92%. I use AVUV for small caps and my equity bucket is about 50%.
"Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business, and a third let him keep in reserve."
- Talmud
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Smith1776
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:04 pm

Canadian PP is down -2.38% this year.
My only regret... is that I have... Boneitis.
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Hal
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Hal » Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:04 am

Aussie Goldsmith portfolio.
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25% Gold 75% VDCO.png
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Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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mathjak107
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Dec 31, 2022 4:17 am

for my benchmarks , morningstar shows

permanent portfolio minus 13.87

wellesly minus 9%

insight income model minus 10.67
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vnatale
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by vnatale » Sat Dec 31, 2022 8:34 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:04 pm

Canadian PP is down -2.38% this year.


Don't remember ever having read the Graham quote in your tagline....but it an excellent one.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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I Shrugged
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by I Shrugged » Sat Dec 31, 2022 12:46 pm

My somewhat out of balance PP, including an international stock allocation, -8.5%
Not as bad as it looked during the year.

I'm a bit high in stocks and low in gold.
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mathjak107
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Dec 31, 2022 2:58 pm

Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .

On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Ugly_Bird » Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:31 pm

stpeter wrote:
Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:17 pm
It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?
My US based classic 4x25 HBPP is -12.7% YTD
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by seajay » Sun Jan 01, 2023 7:43 am

Point to point and much of yearly gains are just down to the valuations/prices at those times. If/when a calendar year start and end date values align with a respective peak and trough then that years outcome will obviously tend to be poor. As might a years trough and peak alignment transition tend to yield a great gain.

Image

Its the broader average that matters, not just single time-points, excepting that is if you're fully loading in and out at those time-points - which most wont be doing.
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mathjak107
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:22 am

If retired your draw rate and income can depend on each years actions..

We had to take a 5% cut in income for 2023 based on a single years outcome . So it counts
Kevin K.
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Kevin K. » Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:19 am

-8.38% according to Portfolio Visualizer for my modified GB:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion6_1=20

Not expecting 2023 to necessarily be a smoother ride but I'm more optimistic than I was a few months ago. Good to see savers being rewarded again with decent interest rates after so many years of being punished by Fed money printing and such. I remain grateful to Harry Browne, and equally to Tyler @ Portfolio Charts for carrying his insights forward.
Last edited by Kevin K. on Sun Jan 01, 2023 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
steve
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by steve » Sun Jan 01, 2023 12:04 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:31 pm
stpeter wrote:
Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:17 pm
It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?
My US based classic 4x25 HBPP is -12.7% YTD
mine was down 12.26%
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:19 am

Don’t have the one year performance offhand but I I’m down about 12 percent from the high on my modified GB. That’s vs 31 percent of the peak on my stock only portfolio.
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by boglerdude » Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:57 am

So 60/40 is back to where it was in what year

And PP back to where it was in what year & month

And your house is back where it was in what year & month?
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Dieter
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Dieter » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:36 pm

-15.15 (edit: bad formula said -9.53) on my modified GB-ish part of my portfolio

Cashless. Ouch.
Last edited by Dieter on Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:07 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:19 am
Don’t have the one year performance offhand but I I’m down about 12 percent from the high on my modified GB. That’s vs 31 percent of the peak on my stock only portfolio.
I think my 1 year performance was more like -13.9 but its a modified GB with a tech heavy mutual fund thrown in. No small cap value, which I really need to add. One thing I am proud of is that I worked up the courage to purchase 30 year treasuries recently. One interesting thing about the PP / GB is that it makes you confront financial behaviors. I was talking to a friend and telling him that your body physically will not allow you to step off a cliff.Thats what if feels like, at least to me, to buy a big loser and sell a big winner. I'm learning. The HBPP is a good teacher.
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Hal
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Hal » Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:58 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:07 pm
One thing I am proud of is that I worked up the courage to purchase 30 year treasuries recently. One interesting thing about the PP / GB is that it makes you confront financial behaviors. I was talking to a friend and telling him that your body physically will not allow you to step off a cliff. Thats what if feels like, at least to me, to buy a big loser and sell a big winner.
+1 That's why I like the concept of the two fund (GoldSmith) PP. We run an extended family retirement fund, and all parties have to sign off on any purchases or sales due to Gov't requirements. Makes management much easier.
How about a US version of a 2 fund GB ie 20% Gold, 80% VDBA
(https://fund-docs.vanguard.com/ETF-Vang ... S_VDBA.pdf)
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Pet Hog » Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:18 am

For my 4x25 PP, still in accumulation phase, I got -12.30% nominal, with 7.11% inflation (November to November), so -19.41% real. Yuck.

Numbers below from yahoo (using adjusted close prices, meaning dividends reinvested):

VTI -19.52%
TLT -31.23%
IAU -0.63%
SHY -3.88%
-----------
4x25 PP: -13.82% (-20.93% real)

In comparison:
60/40 stock/LTT: -24.20% (-31.31% real)
65/35 stock/gold (belangp): -12.91% (-20.02% real)
100% stock (MMM): -19.52% (-26.63% real)

Silver lining: I beat the market by 7%.
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:23 am

PP is down about the same as every one else’s I guess, with significant downturns in stocks and long bonds.

Biggest VP blunder: took large amounts of cash and, over the first half of 2022 bought treasury notes that will mature in 2031.
Wish I’d bought gold instead.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Vil
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Vil » Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:55 am

For me the same, EU-PP was even worse .
So, if I may rephrase dualstow slogan - let 2023 be the year of 'still-working'. Heck, I was supposed to drink margaritas already ...
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 03, 2023 8:22 am

You should have one every once in a while and pretend. Call it a rehearsal.
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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Matthew19
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Matthew19 » Tue Jan 03, 2023 10:24 am

I haven’t looked, but did anyone hit any rebalance bands?
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Dieter
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by Dieter » Tue Jan 03, 2023 7:52 pm

Up 0.4% for the year.

Oops, wrong year. Thought I'd enjoy 2023 returns while positive.... :)
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dualstow
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Re: 2022 Returns

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 03, 2023 8:21 pm

😂
Let 2023 be the year of LASAGNE
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