Gyroscopic Investing

It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?

My slightly modified GB is down -8.92%. I use AVUV for small caps and my equity bucket is about 50%.

Canadian PP is down -2.38% this year.

Aussie Goldsmith portfolio.

for my benchmarks , morningstar shows

permanent portfolio minus 13.87

wellesly minus 9%

insight income model minus 10.67

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:04 pm
Canadian PP is down -2.38% this year.

Don't remember ever having read the Graham quote in your tagline....but it an excellent one.

My somewhat out of balance PP, including an international stock allocation, -8.5%
Not as bad as it looked during the year.

I'm a bit high in stocks and low in gold.

Gold is almost flat for the year ..down less than 1% on gld .

On the other hand tlt got smashed , down 32% including interest ….and shy down over 3%

stpeter wrote: ↑Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:17 pm It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?

My US based classic 4x25 HBPP is -12.7% YTD

Point to point and much of yearly gains are just down to the valuations/prices at those times. If/when a calendar year start and end date values align with a respective peak and trough then that years outcome will obviously tend to be poor. As might a years trough and peak alignment transition tend to yield a great gain.



Its the broader average that matters, not just single time-points, excepting that is if you're fully loading in and out at those time-points - which most wont be doing.

If retired your draw rate and income can depend on each years actions..

We had to take a 5% cut in income for 2023 based on a single years outcome . So it counts

-8.38% according to Portfolio Visualizer for my modified GB:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion6_1=20

Not expecting 2023 to necessarily be a smoother ride but I'm more optimistic than I was a few months ago. Good to see savers being rewarded again with decent interest rates after so many years of being punished by Fed money printing and such. I remain grateful to Harry Browne, and equally to Tyler @ Portfolio Charts for carrying his insights forward.

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:31 pm

stpeter wrote: ↑Fri Dec 30, 2022 5:17 pm It's a wrap! What kind of results did y'all see in your portfolios for 2022?

My US based classic 4x25 HBPP is -12.7% YTD

mine was down 12.26%

Don’t have the one year performance offhand but I I’m down about 12 percent from the high on my modified GB. That’s vs 31 percent of the peak on my stock only portfolio.

So 60/40 is back to where it was in what year

And PP back to where it was in what year & month

And your house is back where it was in what year & month?

-15.15 (edit: bad formula said -9.53) on my modified GB-ish part of my portfolio

Cashless. Ouch.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:19 am Don’t have the one year performance offhand but I I’m down about 12 percent from the high on my modified GB. That’s vs 31 percent of the peak on my stock only portfolio.

I think my 1 year performance was more like -13.9 but its a modified GB with a tech heavy mutual fund thrown in. No small cap value, which I really need to add. One thing I am proud of is that I worked up the courage to purchase 30 year treasuries recently. One interesting thing about the PP / GB is that it makes you confront financial behaviors. I was talking to a friend and telling him that your body physically will not allow you to step off a cliff.Thats what if feels like, at least to me, to buy a big loser and sell a big winner. I'm learning. The HBPP is a good teacher.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:07 pm One thing I am proud of is that I worked up the courage to purchase 30 year treasuries recently. One interesting thing about the PP / GB is that it makes you confront financial behaviors. I was talking to a friend and telling him that your body physically will not allow you to step off a cliff. Thats what if feels like, at least to me, to buy a big loser and sell a big winner.

+1 That's why I like the concept of the two fund (GoldSmith) PP. We run an extended family retirement fund, and all parties have to sign off on any purchases or sales due to Gov't requirements. Makes management much easier.
How about a US version of a 2 fund GB ie 20% Gold, 80% VDBA
(https://fund-docs.vanguard.com/ETF-Vang ... S_VDBA.pdf)

For my 4x25 PP, still in accumulation phase, I got -12.30% nominal, with 7.11% inflation (November to November), so -19.41% real. Yuck.

Numbers below from yahoo (using adjusted close prices, meaning dividends reinvested):

VTI -19.52%
TLT -31.23%
IAU -0.63%
SHY -3.88%
-----------
4x25 PP: -13.82% (-20.93% real)

In comparison:
60/40 stock/LTT: -24.20% (-31.31% real)
65/35 stock/gold (belangp): -12.91% (-20.02% real)
100% stock (MMM): -19.52% (-26.63% real)

Silver lining: I beat the market by 7%.

PP is down about the same as every one else’s I guess, with significant downturns in stocks and long bonds.

Biggest VP blunder: took large amounts of cash and, over the first half of 2022 bought treasury notes that will mature in 2031.
Wish I’d bought gold instead.

For me the same, EU-PP was even worse .
So, if I may rephrase dualstow slogan - let 2023 be the year of 'still-working'. Heck, I was supposed to drink margaritas already ...

You should have one every once in a while and pretend. Call it a rehearsal.

I haven’t looked, but did anyone hit any rebalance bands?

Up 0.4% for the year.

Oops, wrong year. Thought I'd enjoy 2023 returns while positive....