All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

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DesertTortoise
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All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by DesertTortoise »

Hi everyone,

Are any of you aware of any websites that document/define passive portfolio models, other than the following?
I'm a longtime passive investor who has employed the Permanent Portfolio (PP) and Golden Butterfly (GB) over the past 15 years, and I'm now taking some time to review what currently exists in the category of passive, all-weather, 'know-nothing' portfolios. In particular, I'm increasingly concerned with the sizeable PP and GB allocations to cash and long Treasuries due to the explosion in the US money supply and national debt.

Second question -- Can any of you recommend a fee-only investment advisor who is well versed in such portfolios?

Much more can be said on all of this, of course, but in the interest of brevity, I'll leave it there for now.

Thanks,

DT...
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by ppnewbie »

Just heard a good podcast MorningStars “The Long View” They we’re interviewing Dana Anspach who runs a retirement planning firm called sensible money. She seemed very good. Also Cody Garrett from Measure Twice Money seemed good. I think they are both fee only.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

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ppnewbie
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by ppnewbie »

ozzy wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:51 am https://www.rparetf.com/
I took a look at RPAR and UPAR. They are down 32 and 40 percent respectively. So maybe not a good hedge to the broader market.
DesertTortoise
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by DesertTortoise »

Thanks for the pointers. I've made a note of the two advisors, and Faber's PDF is a good overview for newcomers to the idea of lazy portfolios.

I do wonder what Harry Browne would think about the PP in this environment. The US debt seems unpayable at this point, and there appears to be zero inclination toward fiscal discipline in Washington DC. As they say, "That which cannot continue, will not continue." So is it really a good idea to retain 25% of one's savings in debt instruments issued by a bankrupt entity?

I've done some reading in my time on passive model portfolios, but in all those books, I honestly don't recall the authors addressing the possibility of sovereign default, with the possible exception of HB. By and large, they seem to take US solvency and credit worthiness as a given, and I don't recall any of them explicitly addressing the risk of US default with their asset allocations.

Am I wrong about that?
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by Xan »

DesertTortoise wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:46 am Thanks for the pointers. I've made a note of the two advisors, and Faber's PDF is a good overview for newcomers to the idea of lazy portfolios.

I do wonder what Harry Browne would think about the PP in this environment. The US debt seems unpayable at this point, and there appears to be zero inclination toward fiscal discipline in Washington DC. As they say, "That which cannot continue, will not continue." So is it really a good idea to retain 25% of one's savings in debt instruments issued by a bankrupt entity?

I've done some reading in my time on passive model portfolios, but in all those books, I honestly don't recall the authors addressing the possibility of sovereign default, with the possible exception of HB. By and large, they seem to take US solvency and credit worthiness as a given, and I don't recall any of them explicitly addressing the risk of US default with their asset allocations.

Am I wrong about that?
The federal debt is denominated in its own fiat currency, so there's no reason that it should ever be "unpayable". Inflation might wreak havoc, though.
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Hal
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

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DesertTortoise wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:46 am I've done some reading in my time on passive model portfolios, but in all those books, I honestly don't recall the authors addressing the possibility of sovereign default, with the possible exception of HB. By and large, they seem to take US solvency and credit worthiness as a given, and I don't recall any of them explicitly addressing the risk of US default with their asset allocations.
HB address that issue in one of his radio interviews. Can't remember which one though.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzu55W ... QIQ/videos.

To Xan's point. You might find the following useful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4_U6bS-cU4
https://www.youtube.com/user/belangp/videos
https://mises.org/library/deep-freeze-i ... c-collapse

Even if you didn't hold US debt, if it defaulted either outright or through severe currency debasement, it would likely adversely affect all asset classes with the possible exception of Gold.
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by ppnewbie »

DesertTortoise wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:46 am Thanks for the pointers. I've made a note of the two advisors, and Faber's PDF is a good overview for newcomers to the idea of lazy portfolios.

I do wonder what Harry Browne would think about the PP in this environment. The US debt seems unpayable at this point, and there appears to be zero inclination toward fiscal discipline in Washington DC. As they say, "That which cannot continue, will not continue." So is it really a good idea to retain 25% of one's savings in debt instruments issued by a bankrupt entity?

I've done some reading in my time on passive model portfolios, but in all those books, I honestly don't recall the authors addressing the possibility of sovereign default, with the possible exception of HB. By and large, they seem to take US solvency and credit worthiness as a given, and I don't recall any of them explicitly addressing the risk of US default with their asset allocations.

Am I wrong about that?
I am worried about that too. I am fairly certain I will be paid back. But I am worried the Greenbacks will be worth 50 percent less, if Russia, India, China, and Saudi Arabia do not want our bills any longer.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by mathjak107 »

There is no end to the doomsday scenarios our brains can think up for any asset class

But as we know

Image
ppnewbie
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by ppnewbie »

mathjak107 wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:47 pm There is no end to the doomsday scenarios our brains can think up for any asset class

But as we know

Image
Good point and totally agree.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by Jack Jones »

ppnewbie wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:52 pm
mathjak107 wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:47 pm There is no end to the doomsday scenarios our brains can think up for any asset class

But as we know

Image
Good point and totally agree.
I'd like to think that my anxiety has access to a decent model of reality. Are we really worrying about so many things that could never possibly happen?

A more useful distinction is making sure our worry is directed at things we can do something about.

Sometimes, I'm worried about death. Is it "likely to ever happen at all"? Of course. We could have a lethal cancer growing in our bodies right now, unbeknownst to us. That's cause to worry. What's important to me is that the worry is directed appropriately. Do we become paralyzed by the thought of our demise, or do we take action to resolve the worry, e.g. quit smoking or sugar.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by DesertTortoise »

Agree with Jack Jones. Monetary regimes have come and gone throughout history, as have mighty empires. Neither possibility falls under the category of "things that could not ever possibly happen."

My question was simply this -- do the asset allocations of model portfolios adequately account for such a potential risk? Seems to me that those with a significant weighting to gold might, but that traditional stock/bond portfolios do not.

Or, at least, that's my perception.
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Hal
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by Hal »

DesertTortoise wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:33 pm My question was simply this -- do the asset allocations of model portfolios adequately account for such a potential risk? Seems to me that those with a significant weighting to gold might, but that traditional stock/bond portfolios do not.
FWIW Agree with you and Jack Jones. However your potential choices are slim. Select GLD in the link, and note there are only 5 options.
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/i ... io-tag=gld

If it truly concerns you, I would suggest Marc Fabers allocation. Note in real life he only holds physical precious metals and property, not ETFs. In any case, good to see a new forum member. Welcome aboard!
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
DesertTortoise
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by DesertTortoise »

Thanks, Hal. Faber's model is certainly an intriguing option.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by Mark Leavy »

Interesting.

That is very close to my current portfolio - except all of my equities are Nasdaq and I'm 2x leveraged.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by Kevin K. »

Getting back to the OP's questions: I highly recommend reading through Cullen Roche's website, starting with this comprehensive overview of money:

https://www.pragcap.com/understanding-money/

He does a great job of explaining how fiat currencies work - and, among other things, why gold isn't a particularly useful way to hedge against their possible failure. His book "Pragmatic Capitalism" is excellent and his new Discipline Fund ETF is intriguing. I've corresponded with him a bit and think he's one of the brightest younger finance guys. And if I were going to hire an FA for hourly advice or a plan he'd be my first choice.

Cullen knows lazy portfolios in general and the PP very well. Here's an excerpt from a note he sent me in regards to alternatives to the Golden Butterfly and Wellesley for a risk-averse retiree like myself:

"I've always liked "lazy portfolios", but the problem there is they don't always bucket allocations in a sensible manner which creates a lot of uncertainty. Specifically, I'd argue that 20% in long-term bonds is way too much. Long bonds and gold are like insurance in a portfolio. Your portfolio should never be comprised of 40% insurance. Instead, I'd bucket it out with more T-Bills and something like VGSH for the short-term bonds. Then apply DSCF, VTI and smaller allocations to IAU or VGLT for insurance. For instance:

10% 6 T-Bills (just keep rolling them every 6 months)
20% VGSH (short-term govt bonds yielding 4%)
30% DSCF (tax efficient stock/bond mix)
20% VTI (stocks)
10% VGLT
10% IAU/PHYS

This portfolio gives you a ton of short-term certainty with broad diversification on some longer-term instruments. You end up with the same stock exposure as Wellesley has, but you have more insurance, liquidity and protection built into the portfolio."

IMHO something like the approach he suggests above is in its own way just as interesting of a "PP-inspired" allocation as the Golden Butterfly.

These recommendations embody Cullen's approach to what he calls Duration Matched Investing. You could think of this as a more sophisticated iteration of the old "bucket" approach. Mr. Roche really understands the dangers costly investor behavioral errors after spending two decades or so working with clients. Here's the link to his new paper on this approach:

https://www.pragcap.com/new-white-paper ... investing/

I'm watching DSCF and will probably eventually invest a decent chunk in it.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

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Kevin K. wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:13 am Getting back to the OP's questions: I highly recommend reading through Cullen Roche's website, starting with this comprehensive overview of money:

https://www.pragcap.com/understanding-money/

He does a great job of explaining how fiat currencies work - and, among other things, why gold isn't a particularly useful way to hedge against their possible failure. His book "Pragmatic Capitalism" is excellent and his new Discipline Fund ETF is intriguing. I've corresponded with him a bit and think he's one of the brightest younger finance guys. And if I were going to hire an FA for hourly advice or a plan he'd be my first choice.

Cullen knows lazy portfolios in general and the PP very well. Here's an excerpt from a note he sent me in regards to alternatives to the Golden Butterfly and Wellesley for a risk-averse retiree like myself:

"I've always liked "lazy portfolios", but the problem there is they don't always bucket allocations in a sensible manner which creates a lot of uncertainty. Specifically, I'd argue that 20% in long-term bonds is way too much. Long bonds and gold are like insurance in a portfolio. Your portfolio should never be comprised of 40% insurance. Instead, I'd bucket it out with more T-Bills and something like VGSH for the short-term bonds. Then apply DSCF, VTI and smaller allocations to IAU or VGLT for insurance. For instance:

10% 6 T-Bills (just keep rolling them every 6 months)
20% VGSH (short-term govt bonds yielding 4%)
30% DSCF (tax efficient stock/bond mix)
20% VTI (stocks)
10% VGLT
10% IAU/PHYS

This portfolio gives you a ton of short-term certainty with broad diversification on some longer-term instruments. You end up with the same stock exposure as Wellesley has, but you have more insurance, liquidity and protection built into the portfolio."

IMHO something like the approach he suggests above is in its own way just as interesting of a "PP-inspired" allocation as the Golden Butterfly.

These recommendations embody Cullen's approach to what he calls Duration Matched Investing. You could think of this as a more sophisticated iteration of the old "bucket" approach. Mr. Roche really understands the dangers costly investor behavioral errors after spending two decades or so working with clients. Here's the link to his new paper on this approach:

https://www.pragcap.com/new-white-paper ... investing/

I'm watching DSCF and will probably eventually invest a decent chunk in it.
PV
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by Kevin K. »

The Portfolio Visualizer link is irrelevant seajay since DSCF was only introduced in September 2021. That’s why I said I’m watching it, not investing in it.

But if you read about its approach, its just automating the strategic rebalancing out of frothy markets that Jack Bogle and others have recommended.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

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Kevin K. wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:53 pm The Portfolio Visualizer link is irrelevant seajay since DSCF was only introduced in September 2021. That’s why I said I’m watching it, not investing in it.

But if you read about its approach, its just automating the strategic rebalancing out of frothy markets that Jack Bogle and others have recommended.
Thanks Kevin.

DSCF looks somewhat similar to https://www.signalpointinvest.com/ (I've known one of the founders of that from way back prior to its 2008 foundation).
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by seajay »

DesertTortoise wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:46 am Thanks for the pointers. I've made a note of the two advisors, and Faber's PDF is a good overview for newcomers to the idea of lazy portfolios.

I do wonder what Harry Browne would think about the PP in this environment. The US debt seems unpayable at this point, and there appears to be zero inclination toward fiscal discipline in Washington DC. As they say, "That which cannot continue, will not continue." So is it really a good idea to retain 25% of one's savings in debt instruments issued by a bankrupt entity?

I've done some reading in my time on passive model portfolios, but in all those books, I honestly don't recall the authors addressing the possibility of sovereign default, with the possible exception of HB. By and large, they seem to take US solvency and credit worthiness as a given, and I don't recall any of them explicitly addressing the risk of US default with their asset allocations.

Am I wrong about that?
"Only" $7Tn of the $32Tn US debt is actually external. 28% of $25Tn GDP.

In the simplified context of a household with $250K/year income, on paper $320K of debts, but where much of that is between family members and only $70K is actual external debt, then its nowhere near as bad as it may seem when looking solely at the 128% of GDP debt figure alone.

Majors defaulting happens relatively frequently, but in a opaque like partial manner. It tends to be smaller countries that can endure a major/obvious default. Partial defaults can be directed via the likes of taxation, inflationary erosion ...etc. and the mechanisms/methods for that are already well established (tried and tested) and which the PP's design/choice factors for.
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Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

Post by seajay »

DesertTortoise wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:29 pm Thanks, Hal. Faber's model is certainly an intriguing option.
Do you mean the Marc Faber choice, PDF page 56, document page 63 in
https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads ... Book-1.pdf

If so then the
one of the most consistent we have reviewed. The portfolio is one of the few that had positive real returns in each decade
is indeed interesting
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