Gyroscopic Investing

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Anybody else just shaking their head?

It is what it is.....

I'm really thinking this is the bursting of the Everything Bubble. How things look on the other side of this, who knows? I'm just glad to have bets placed on several different asset classes as opposed to concentrated in one area.

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:38 am https://youtu.be/IG7sww5NtVA

Actually, I was thinking:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04F4xlWSFh0

amdda01 wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:27 am Anybody else just shaking their head?

Volatile times. Dow was up 900+ pts yesterday.

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:38 am https://youtu.be/IG7sww5NtVA

"No Shelter" is (mostly) right....Treasuries, gold, growth stocks, value stocks, foreign stocks, EM stocks, BTC.....all down hard today.

With that said, there HAVE been several ports in the storm both today and for the YTD so far as a whole. Managed futures funds of all stripes have done quite nicely; check out CSAIX or MFTNX or PQTIX. Betting against beta--as typified by the ETF BTAL--has also done well enough (and FWIW while this one only goes back to 2011 as an ETF I have the results for the underlying strategy back to 2001; basically it gives you the anti-correlation results of a market short but instead of losing 8-10% a year over the long term like a market short does it is actually up around 10-15% in total since 1-1-2001).

The Tail Risk Hedge ETF "TAIL" did great today and theoretically should have done well this YTD given market direction and given what TAIL holds (a few percent of its assets in ATM and/or varying levels of shallow to deep OTM put options on the S&P 500 combined with a vast majority of its assets in "safe" stuff like bonds....but alas, whoever designed the ETF and the underlying index chose 10-year Treasuries as the "safe" asset to always use; worked great in 2020 and (with the index backtested to 1986--pretty well in 2008, 2000-02, 1990, and 1987); stunk out loud in a rising rate environment like we've had so far this year. Several people tried to warn them that they should've used a much shorter-term bond sleeve for the 95 to 98% of the portfolio that was "safe" assets (if it were up to me, I would've used a ladder of varying maturities from 3 months to 3 years with most of it concentrated in the 6 month to 10 month range; that 6-month to 10-month combo had historically--tested from the beginning of 1952 to the end of 2021--given about 75% or 80% of the excess return of 1-3 year Treasuries over T-Bills with almost none of the interest rate risk that said 1-3 year Treasuries have and that cash/T-Bills don't) but apparently they still chose to go with a portfolio that very closely matched a 10-year Treasury maturity. The results of that--down around 5.5% so far this year despite supposedly being a "do great in a market crash" asset--speak for themselves.

Finally, the strategy of "go long UUP and pay for it by going short the CAD and investing the proceeds into more UUP and rebalancing every month/quarter" that was mentioned a while back here as a potential "fifth" PP asset that had either no or negative correlation to all four other other PP assets (and that tended to do well in years like 1977, 1981, 1984, 1994, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2021, and 2022 so far when the PP as a whole gave either slight negative returns or very low single digit positive returns) has also done well this year; going as far back as I can in PV the results are shown here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion12_2=25

Feels just like old times!

dockinGA wrote: ↑Thu May 05, 2022 11:35 am It is what it is.....

I'm really thinking this is the bursting of the Everything Bubble. How things look on the other side of this, who knows? I'm just glad to have bets placed on several different asset classes as opposed to concentrated in one area.

I was thinking the same thing the other day about the Everything Bubble. The world has been awash in funny money. It has to end badly. Subject to HBs caution on such certainty.

The market is set for another drop of 500 points and gold is down 1.4% this morning.

Harry Browne was confident that cash would only do well during periods of "tight money". Makes sense we are in this environment as the FED is doing exactly that by raising rates and selling assets. But HB also said "tight money" is temporary and eventually inflation/deflation will resume.

So just stay the course.

Yeah, nothing good ahead of us. Book shared by Vinny recently (the one about inflation) advices on going into property owning (but direct ownership, no REITs or alike) - as according to the author this is the only way to beat or at least negate the effects of inflation. Actually right wing supporters may find it a good read, from investment point of view - it's not a bad read, but the frequently referred Chapter 6 does not really bring a lot of added value. And at least where I live securing a fixed rate mortgage is hardly an option, as my spouse nicely put it - "well, the banks are not managed by idiots"

I think property owning is smart but I’m just too lazy to do it. It’s enough of a pain to check on my bank box and that’s walking distance.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 10:10 am I think property owning is smart but I’m just too lazy to do it. It’s enough of a pain to check on my bank box and that’s walking distance.

Why not buy TIPWX/TIPRX (TIPWX is the instl share class and TIPRX is the investor share class; I believe minimum initial purchase on these is $100K and $2,500 respectively with minimum purchases after that being $100 and $1 respectively)? It's an interval fund that holds about 75% of its assets in a diversified portfolio of directly-owned (i.e. direct ownership of real estate itself and not REITs) real estate SMAs, 10% or so in real-estate debt related securities (in quality varying from high yield and second lien/mezzanine all the way to FHA and FNMA/FHLMC backed paper), around 2% in publicly traded REITs and private REITs, and (as of the moment) around 12 or 13% in cash and short-term securities.

If you don't have access to a real estate SMA--which unless you are rich enough to have upwards of $1 million in assets available to invest in real estate and/or are otherwise qualified as an institutional purchaser you likely will not--and also don't want to invest in real estate by directly being a landlord then something like this seems like a no-brainer.

That’s a good idea! I’ll look into it.

Bitcoin is around 30,000$? wow.

Completely not surprised about BTC...gold hasn't blown it out of the water but it has held. BTC, not so much. Down worse than the market by a fair amount.

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 2:57 pm Completely not surprised about BTC...gold hasn't blown it out of the water but it has held. BTC, not so much. Down worse than the market by a fair amount.

Don't know jack about crypto, but I've heard BTC is more corrolated to high flying tech stocks than gold. Does that make any sense?

In any case, I'm staying out of it for now. Maybe one day I'll throw in 10k as a flier after I've got my PP online.

Imagine if the Bitcoin price was taking off during all this.

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 4:10 pm Imagine if the Bitcoin price was taking off during all this.

Yes imagine…but it’s not.

There are beginning to be a few academic studies on bitcoin as an asset class. Most of them start with a qualifier; “well there isn’t much data” bitcoin tends to be highly correlated to technology stocks. I think both parts are important when discussing this topic, but we do have some preliminary data. Personally, I just don’t see this being an asset class. I have yet to see anything that indicates it will serve a useful function in someone’s portfolio for sound economic reasons. I am convinced that the technology is useful, just not as a unique or distinct financial asset class.

D1984 wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 12:47 pm Why not buy TIPWX/TIPRX (TIPWX is the instl share class and TIPRX is the investor share class;
...
then something like this seems like a no-brainer.

That sounds interesting. Apologies for my ignorance, but TIPRX being an interval fund (and as not traded on sec exchange) - how can it be purchased then ? Had a brief look on some of the Blue Rock marketing materials - lol, kind of too good to be true. One can easily swallow 1.5%-2.% of management fees with such stellar performance. They do not have plenty of history behind though (since 2012). Also wondering why do they keep so much cash - 12-15% ?

Those are all very good questions. I don't think I'll be pursuing TIPRX myself, after all. Interesting idea, though.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue May 10, 2022 9:21 am I just accidentally discovered that 48oz of gold = 88,888.88 USD. 60oz is 111,11

As mathematicians say - we are in the same basket of equivalence - I am also counting hours/days to return back home from Germany, not much to do here anymore ... By the way - with regards to inflation - yesterday a pharmacist changed the price tags (with higher) in front of me ...

Vil wrote: ↑Tue May 10, 2022 9:35 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue May 10, 2022 9:21 am I just accidentally discovered that 48oz of gold = 88,888.88 USD. 60oz is 111,11

As mathematicians say - we are in the same basket of equivalence - I am also counting hours/days to return back home from Germany, not much to do here anymore ... By the way - with regards to inflation - yesterday a pharmacist changed the price tags (with higher) in front of me ...

I've personally seen situations when the stores were getting tired of changing price tags because they simply could not keep up. Then, they just closed the stores.

Vil wrote: ↑Tue May 10, 2022 9:35 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue May 10, 2022 9:21 am I just accidentally discovered that 48oz of gold = 88,888.88 USD. 60oz is 111,11

As mathematicians say - we are in the same basket of equivalence - I am also counting hours/days to return back home from Germany, not much to do here anymore ... By the way - with regards to inflation - yesterday a pharmacist changed the price tags (with higher) in front of me ...

Oh, man. We're in trouble.

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Tue May 10, 2022 9:43 am I've personally seen situations when the stores were getting tired of changing price tags because they simply could not keep up. Then, they just closed the stores.

When/where was that ?