Absolutely brutal - 5/5

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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue May 17, 2022 10:22 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 5:34 am
my opinion is bitcoin rose over that time frame soley from the bigger fool theory .
Other than people buying in an upward trend, what is your bigger (greater) fool theory here? (and would gold going up similarly fit that?)
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 5:34 am
it is after the fact one tries to make some correlation to the economy /

my opinion is once the real inflation hit us bitcoin was a poor inflation hedge .
But the monetary expansion was early 2020 through end of 2021, which BTC 10x'd.
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 5:34 am
commodities are an inflation hedge , oil has been an inflation hedge .

they are up beating inflation .
Largely commodities and and oil ARE the inflation.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Tue May 17, 2022 4:04 pm

Well you buy what is going up ..that is your hedge ..ytd they are up while bitcoin plunged
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 21, 2022 4:25 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 6:23 am
Looking at the weeks results

I show pp down 10.50 ytd

Wellesly down 7.96%

Insight income model down 8.76%

Let’s see what next week does
The end of another week

Wellesly down 8.28

Fidelity insight income model down 9.1

Pp down 10%

So in this downturn flight to safety assets like gold and tlt have pretty much neither helped nor hindered anything compared to other conservative models .

If anything compared to wellesly it is behind but still within spitting distance .

I think this shows that despite those who think the pp is not holding up its end well , it is not much different than any of the conservative models above that don’t use gold or long term treasuries.

I think the comparisons are interesting for a few reasons.

It shows just what the traditional models are doing that are considered conservative portfolios .

It shows that despite the big difference in holdings between the 3 they are all doing quite similar even with the damage in long term treasuries …

The insight model has very different assets in different proportions yet so far very similar results in this down turn .
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Vil » Mon May 23, 2022 10:20 am

Lagarde on Cryptos here
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by joypog » Mon May 23, 2022 11:43 pm

Vil wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 10:20 am
Lagarde on Cryptos here
Breaking news! European Central banker doesn't believe in Crypto and thinks it should be regulated.
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Vil » Tue May 24, 2022 1:03 am

joypog wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 11:43 pm
Vil wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 10:20 am
Lagarde on Cryptos here
Breaking news! European Central banker doesn't believe in Crypto and thinks it should be regulated.
Yes, some more breaking news coming .. As I was reading through the recent (couple days ago) Gates notes found this :
Hey Bill, what do you think about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies?

I don't own any. I like investing in things that have valuable output. The value of companies is based on how they make great products. The value of crypto is just what some other person decides someone else will pay for it so not adding to society like other investments.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by dualstow » Tue May 24, 2022 7:25 am

Vil wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 1:03 am

As I was reading through the recent (couple days ago) Gates notes …
That’s a good read! Finally, something uplifting.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 28, 2022 3:54 am

This was a better week for all

Permanent portfolio down 8.50% ytd

Wellesly down 5.42


Insight income model down 6.9


So pp is sliding behind in down market performance
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by dualstow » Sun May 29, 2022 7:44 am

Posted elsewhere by Tyler: https://portfoliocharts.com/2022/05/27/ ... portfolios
Tyler wrote: So staying the course with a dependable portfolio is not so much about covering your eyes and ignoring current performance, but about having the perspective and confidence to know that the battleship is turning at its own pace.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Tyler » Sun May 29, 2022 10:09 am

dualstow wrote:
Sun May 29, 2022 7:44 am
Posted elsewhere by Tyler: https://portfoliocharts.com/2022/05/27/ ... portfolios
Tyler wrote: So staying the course with a dependable portfolio is not so much about covering your eyes and ignoring current performance, but about having the perspective and confidence to know that the battleship is turning at its own pace.
I don't remember if it was Craig or MediumTex, but I definitely got that slowly-turning ship metaphor from this forum. Maybe the book? Either way, I can't take credit for that one! I just think there's a lot of wisdom in the image.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by ahhrunforthehills » Tue May 31, 2022 1:07 pm

Although I generally agree with this… not so much for the PP. People expect the PP to be a fast-turning ship because that is insurance they thought they were paying for by giving up their higher expected returns.

I think the real problem is that the PP is not geared towards rising rates and relies on gold to pick up the slack. However, the drawdown duration for a portfolio relying on gold can be several years.

If you are okay with watching your portfolio experience volatility AND you are okay with waiting for a slow-turning ship (i.e. extended drawdown length)… frankly, why would someone have bothered investing in the PP?

People are getting burned because they wanted to have their cake and eat it too. They expect the PP to protect them while simultaneously providing a good return beyond taxes & inflation.

Returns are based on risk. No risk, no reward. Yet the PP is supposed to magically defy this? If someone was historically getting a good return before with the PP, it doesn't mean they were done paying their bill yet. The balance of their bill (risk) was simply deferred until rates rise. Again, no risk no reward. Past 18-month performance of the PP I have at roughly 0% (before tax & inflation). That seems about right to me given the circumstances.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Tue May 31, 2022 1:10 pm

It still seems in line with other models that are conservative ,even today .

It’s the laggard in the three I track but it is pretty much right in the same general return in this down market
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by glennds » Tue May 31, 2022 1:43 pm

The story is not over. What will be interesting will be to see when the PP rebounds and how much of the rebound upside it captures.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by ahhrunforthehills » Tue May 31, 2022 2:54 pm

glennds wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 1:43 pm
The story is not over. What will be interesting will be to see when the PP rebounds and how much of the rebound upside it captures.
I hear you. There is always a chance it will snow sometime in the future as well. But wearing snow boots in May from a risk/reward standpoint is just silly. You can't predict the weather, but the layers you wear in anticipation of unexpected weather changes based on the time of year can increase your chance of success.

Just some food for thought.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by glennds » Tue May 31, 2022 4:41 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 2:54 pm
glennds wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 1:43 pm
The story is not over. What will be interesting will be to see when the PP rebounds and how much of the rebound upside it captures.
I hear you. There is always a chance it will snow sometime in the future as well. But wearing snow boots in May from a risk/reward standpoint is just silly. You can't predict the weather, but the layers you wear in anticipation of unexpected weather changes based on the time of year can increase your chance of success.

Just some food for thought.
Believe me, I'm not defending it. I've been in the PP since 2013 and it's averaged about 4.5% CAGR for me. Most expensive disaster insurance I've ever bought. And now that we have a downturn, it feels like I'm finding out I have policy exclusions.

All I'm saying is I'm going to see it through this cycle but after that I'm not so sure.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Kbg » Tue May 31, 2022 5:13 pm

glennds wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 4:41 pm
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 2:54 pm
glennds wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 1:43 pm
The story is not over. What will be interesting will be to see when the PP rebounds and how much of the rebound upside it captures.
I hear you. There is always a chance it will snow sometime in the future as well. But wearing snow boots in May from a risk/reward standpoint is just silly. You can't predict the weather, but the layers you wear in anticipation of unexpected weather changes based on the time of year can increase your chance of success.

Just some food for thought.
Believe me, I'm not defending it. I've been in the PP since 2013 and it's averaged about 4.5% CAGR for me. Most expensive disaster insurance I've ever bought. And now that we have a downturn, it feels like I'm finding out I have policy exclusions.

All I'm saying is I'm going to see it through this cycle but after that I'm not so sure.
I do not invest in the PP as structured by HB because I think it is MUCH too conservative for most investors. However, if one paid attention at all in their research phase then they should know there is nothing about its performance that is in any way, shape or form out of character at the current time. If you were in the PP in 2019 and 2020 you got back to back 16% returns which were abnormally high. One should expect a return to mean effect afterwards. Just look at the annual performance history of the PP...completely normal behavior.

Rhetorical Question; As regards the current performance given the economic climate, what asset is not true to expected form? Answer: None

Finally, the S&P has had a MaxDD this year of ~13% and a TSM fund ~14%. The PP is half that at 7 and change.

You can claim you are finding out the PP doesn't suit you, but you cannot claim the PP isn't doing what it normally does. It just ain't so.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by glennds » Tue May 31, 2022 10:11 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 5:13 pm


Rhetorical Question; As regards the current performance given the economic climate, what asset is not true to expected form? Answer: None


You can claim you are finding out the PP doesn't suit you, but you cannot claim the PP isn't doing what it normally does. It just ain't so.
The asset that I would have expected to have performed better than it has YTD would be gold. The thesis is that in times of inflation, gold will perform enough to pull the load. In previous times of inflation that's exactly what it did. This time at best it has blunted losses. Better than nothing, but not as good as pulling the load and replacing or mostly replacing the gains lost from the other buckets.

As for the rest, we're into semantics. Yes, I will say the PP may not suit me, more than I would say it's broken in some way.
I can now definitively claim that from 2013-2021 the PP CAGR was 7.38% (lower than it's historical average BTW); and the same period return from the Total Stock Market index VTI was 16.27%.
The differential reflects the opportunity cost of the lower max drawdown of the PP (-11.98% vs -20.84%).

In my particular case I can say this is way too high an opportunity cost for that benefit. On a compounded basis, the performance differential is staggering.

EDIT: I appreciate the discussion, because I'm coming up on the 10 year anniversary of this portfolio at which time I need to make some decisions on what if anything to change.
BTW, being a believer in tech, my favorite index fund QQQ for 2013-2021 would have delivered a CAGR of 23.42% and a max drawdown of 16.96%. This year drops the max drawdown no doubt, but still to keep it comparable to the above stats, the difference is life changing versus the PP with not a whole lot more downward volatility.
Bottom line, I've learned what you already know, which is the conservatism of the Permanent Portfolio comes at a price.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:37 am

glennds wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 10:11 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 5:13 pm



Rhetorical Question; As regards the current performance given the economic climate, what asset is not true to expected form? Answer: None


You can claim you are finding out the PP doesn't suit you, but you cannot claim the PP isn't doing what it normally does. It just ain't so.


The asset that I would have expected to have performed better than it has YTD would be gold. The thesis is that in times of inflation, gold will perform enough to pull the load. In previous times of inflation that's exactly what it did. This time at best it has blunted losses. Better than nothing, but not as good as pulling the load and replacing or mostly replacing the gains lost from the other buckets.

As for the rest, we're into semantics. Yes, I will say the PP may not suit me, more than I would say it's broken in some way.
I can now definitively claim that from 2013-2021 the PP CAGR was 7.38% (lower than it's historical average BTW); and the same period return from the Total Stock Market index VTI was 16.27%.
The differential reflects the opportunity cost of the lower max drawdown of the PP (-11.98% vs -20.84%).

In my particular case I can say this is way too high an opportunity cost for that benefit. On a compounded basis, the performance differential is staggering.

EDIT: I appreciate the discussion, because I'm coming up on the 10 year anniversary of this portfolio at which time I need to make some decisions on what if anything to change.
BTW, being a believer in tech, my favorite index fund QQQ for 2013-2021 would have delivered a CAGR of 23.42% and a max drawdown of 16.96%. This year drops the max drawdown no doubt, but still to keep it comparable to the above stats, the difference is life changing versus the PP with not a whole lot more downward volatility.
Bottom line, I've learned what you already know, which is the conservatism of the Permanent Portfolio comes at a price.


Isn't that a classic case of the reward / risk ratio?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by dualstow » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:14 am

The asset that many have been reluctant to buy have been long bonds. If it weren’t for the pp, I don’t know that I would’ve bought any even though I am not a 100% stocks kind of guy. Of course they’re getting slammed now, but having started the pp for money I can’t afford to lose around 2010, they’ve treated me well.

Certainly no complaints about my stock vp but the reason I can stomach it is because of the pp core.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by dockinGA » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:07 am

Kbg wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 5:13 pm
glennds wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 4:41 pm
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 2:54 pm
glennds wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 1:43 pm
The story is not over. What will be interesting will be to see when the PP rebounds and how much of the rebound upside it captures.
I hear you. There is always a chance it will snow sometime in the future as well. But wearing snow boots in May from a risk/reward standpoint is just silly. You can't predict the weather, but the layers you wear in anticipation of unexpected weather changes based on the time of year can increase your chance of success.

Just some food for thought.
Believe me, I'm not defending it. I've been in the PP since 2013 and it's averaged about 4.5% CAGR for me. Most expensive disaster insurance I've ever bought. And now that we have a downturn, it feels like I'm finding out I have policy exclusions.

All I'm saying is I'm going to see it through this cycle but after that I'm not so sure.
I do not invest in the PP as structured by HB because I think it is MUCH too conservative for most investors. However, if one paid attention at all in their research phase then they should know there is nothing about its performance that is in any way, shape or form out of character at the current time. If you were in the PP in 2019 and 2020 you got back to back 16% returns which were abnormally high. One should expect a return to mean effect afterwards. Just look at the annual performance history of the PP...completely normal behavior.

Rhetorical Question; As regards the current performance given the economic climate, what asset is not true to expected form? Answer: None

Finally, the S&P has had a MaxDD this year of ~13% and a TSM fund ~14%. The PP is half that at 7 and change.

You can claim you are finding out the PP doesn't suit you, but you cannot claim the PP isn't doing what it normally does. It just ain't so.
Good comment. I've reached a point where I read the posts from most of these posters (thankfully I've also blocked a few), and just laugh. They'll wash out from the PP, performance chase into something else, and end up with a far worse performance than if they'd just picked a portfolio (pretty much ANY portfolio) and stuck with it.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by glennds » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:20 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:37 am

Isn't that a classic case of the reward / risk ratio?
Absolutely in principle. But where it gets complicated is how much reward are you willing to sacrifice for how much risk reduction. And how long would you be willing to wait to evaluate it? Probably a personal decision based on your own situation and comfort level.

Would you give up 65% of the upside for 15% reduction in risk? Maybe not.
How about giving up 10% of the upside for an 80% reduction in risk? Yes, you'd probably do that deal, especially if you have a conservative nature.

As I say, there's no one right answer, it's probably circumstantial.

EDIT: Another feature of the PP is protecting the investor from their own decision making. Are you an investor that needs that protection? And how much heartburn can you tolerate when a drawdown occurs? Again, mostly personal answers.

EDIT 2: For me this probably doesn't mean dropping the Permanent Portfolio entirely but rather adjusting the PP/VP ratio in my life.
Last edited by glennds on Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by glennds » Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:31 am

dockinGA wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:07 am

Good comment. I've reached a point where I read the posts from most of these posters (thankfully I've also blocked a few), and just laugh. They'll wash out from the PP, performance chase into something else, and end up with a far worse performance than if they'd just picked a portfolio (pretty much ANY portfolio) and stuck with it.
How long would you give to a particular strategy before evaluating a possible change or adjustment?
We agree, performance chasing can be counterproductive. But surely a periodic evaluation is reasonable, especially if the investor's circumstances have changed.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by dockinGA » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:38 am

glennds wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:31 am
dockinGA wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:07 am

Good comment. I've reached a point where I read the posts from most of these posters (thankfully I've also blocked a few), and just laugh. They'll wash out from the PP, performance chase into something else, and end up with a far worse performance than if they'd just picked a portfolio (pretty much ANY portfolio) and stuck with it.
How long would you give to a particular strategy before evaluating a possible change or adjustment?
We agree, performance chasing can be counterproductive. But surely a periodic evaluation is reasonable, especially if the investor's circumstances have changed.
That's a fair question. I suppose it all depends on the nature of the investment and the individual. If you're someone who is very risk averse that was dumped into 100% stocks by an irresponsible financial advisor or a roboadvisor or something like that, it would be fair to very quickly re-evaluate your tolerance for loss. Periodic tinkering around the margins of your portfolio would be completely fair game in pretty much any situation, even if it possibly reeks of 'performance chasing' at times as long as you're not making wholesale changes to your portfolio. And as you mention, big changes in life circumstances would also warrant potential changes, but I think one must always keep in their mind the potential pitfalls of trying to chase performance. My VP has somewhat slowly morphed into a GB just by virtue of a larger nest egg that I'd like to protect, seeking more diversification, etc.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Kbg » Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:45 am

glennds wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 10:11 pm
Kbg wrote:
Tue May 31, 2022 5:13 pm
Bottom line, I've learned what you already know, which is the conservatism of the Permanent Portfolio comes at a price.
Yes it does. I would also venture to say now is not the best time to transition. Things are not normal right now so not being overboard in stocks is not a bad thing.

I'm a fan of QQQ as well. A great mix is QQQ and small caps. They tend to alternate with each other performance wise...though they are both riskier than the S&P 500.

Gold...yeah it would be nice to have had a better pop with the recent unpleasantness. However, it has been about the only thing of the four assets that hasn't been trashed pretty well in real terms...the least worse loser. :-)

I think a nice little more conservative portfolio for say 40+ in age is a 50/25/25 stocks/bonds/gold. The stock component is what matters and is your risk to reward asset (i.e. dial it up or down to taste). The second 2/3rds doesn't really matter all that much so long as you keep at least one at 10%.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by joypog » Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:43 pm

glennds wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:20 am
EDIT 2: For me this probably doesn't mean dropping the Permanent Portfolio entirely but rather adjusting the PP/VP ratio in my life.
I think that's the critical aspect of the PP that doesn't get talked about enough. The whole PP is only theoretically designed to avoid (hopefully) the worst result at any given time. The VP is what's needed to avoid brutal underperformance during good times.

The psychological difficulty that that the mentality of someone who is interestd in the PP is someone is inherently conservative. So there might be a tendency to goin 100% into the PP. But that comes with the hidden risk of massive underperforamance.

So we're now back to the classic central conundrum of what percentage in stocks? Just now its what percentage in PP?

Unfortuantely the PP doesn't relieve a portfolio manager of actually making a choice. Which is why I've been so publically flailing around on this forum. What is the "actual" quantiy of cash that I "can't afford to lose"? And how much am I willing to allow the Jones out perform my AA?

BTW one of the best comments about this conundrum came from Tyler when he was wrestling with his then-new Golden Butterfly design. He mentioned that the additional money in the stock market made him root for more prosperity. Psychologically I think that is quite astute and wise. It's better to root the success of your fellow man than to miserly completely hide from it all where success is solely defined by not-failing.

(elsewhere has been discussion about the viability of Gold and LTT's to act as anticipated, but that's a seperate theory question from the one's PP/VP ration...this conversation could be reframed as a Dalio All Season..or even 100%ITT/Variable Portfolio balance question).
I have no clue. Ask me next May.
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