Long Term Tips YTD return

[Maestro G]

It's interesting to me that, according to Morningstar, and after today's carnage, the YTD return for LTPZ (PIMCO 15+Yr. TIPS) is: 18.58%, outpacing both IAU (15.90%) and TLT (14.49%).

I know that TIPS are generally anathema here on the PP discussion boards ("don't buy fire insurance from an arsonist" etc, etc....), and LTPZ hasn't been around that long, but could it be that, at least in this environment, the long duration variety is the best of both worlds relative to gold and long duration nominals

Best,
Maestro G

[vnatale]

It's interesting to me that, according to Morningstar, and after today's carnage, the YTD return for LTPZ (PIMCO 15+Yr. TIPS) is: 18.58%, outpacing both IAU (15.90%) and TLT (14.49%).

I know that TIPS are generally anathema here on the PP discussion boards ("don't buy fire insurance from an arsonist" etc, etc....), and LTPZ hasn't been around that long, but could it be that, at least in this environment, the long duration variety is the best of both worlds relative to gold and long duration nominals

Best,
Maestro G

This never received a response. What would be now the 10 year or so comparison between LTPZ, IAU, and TLT?

Vinny

[ozzy]

In the past 10 years, LT Treasuries (TLT) have performed very similarly to LT TIPS (LTPZ). See link below, only a ~1% difference in CAGR.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

I'm seriously considering swapping out half my TLT position with LTPZ. With the Fed's recent announcement to allow inflation to 'run hot' in the coming years, it seems prudent to diversify my bond holdings with a bit of inflation protection.

[modeljc]

In the past 10 years, LT Treasuries (TLT) have performed very similarly to LT TIPS (LTPZ). See link below, only a ~1% difference in CAGR.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

I'm seriously considering swapping out half my TLT position with LTPZ. With the Fed's recent announcement to allow inflation to 'run hot' in the coming years, it seems prudent to diversify my bond holdings with a bit of inflation protection.

I wonder what HB would recommend to handle the big drops and swings in stocks like 2008 being down about 55%. The drawdown for LTPZ is somewhat the same as TLT. Also what do you lose by using LTPZ vs TLT. Maybe a little duration? Maybe pick up a little in Yield? What else?

[ozzy]

Good question. The link shows "US Mkt Correlation" for TLT provides slightly more stock market crash protection. Other than that, I don't believe you're losing much. I'm not ready to go whole-hog into LTPZ, but I'm willing to go half-hog. I bought some LTPZ yesterday and its up +1.12% today. So far so good!

[amdda01]

Ozzy,

How does this new move fit in the context of the Juicy?

[mathjak107]

In the past 10 years, LT Treasuries (TLT) have performed very similarly to LT TIPS (LTPZ). See link below, only a ~1% difference in CAGR.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

I'm seriously considering swapping out half my TLT position with LTPZ. With the Fed's recent announcement to allow inflation to 'run hot' in the coming years, it seems prudent to diversify my bond holdings with a bit of inflation protection.

I wonder what HB would recommend to handle the big drops and swings in stocks like 2008 being down about 55%. The drawdown for LTPZ is somewhat the same as TLT. Also what do you lose by using LTPZ vs TLT. Maybe a little duration? Maybe pick up a little in Yield? What else?

hard to say .. perhaps today TLT would have sold off to meet margin calls and fed spending increasing the perception of inflation fears since rates are so low today and other means to pull out of deflation are needed .

history never repeats the same way twice ..only historians repeat themselves .

each time is just different enough that whatever you thought would work doesn't

[mathjak107]

Good question. The link shows "US Mkt Correlation" for TLT provides slightly more stock market crash protection. Other than that, I don't believe you're losing much. I'm not ready to go whole-hog into LTPZ, but I'm willing to go half-hog. I bought some LTPZ yesterday and its up +1.12% today. So far so good!

perhaps splitting tlt with lptz is a slight improvement as well as split shy with vtip .

but in any case if rates rise to high there may not be a lot of difference in damage

[modeljc]

Good question. The link shows "US Mkt Correlation" for TLT provides slightly more stock market crash protection. Other than that, I don't believe you're losing much. I'm not ready to go whole-hog into LTPZ, but I'm willing to go half-hog. I bought some LTPZ yesterday and its up +1.12% today. So far so good!

perhaps splitting tlt with lptz is a slight improvement as well as split shy with vtip .

but in any case if rates rise to high there may not be a lot of difference in damage

Thanks! That does answer my question. If rates go up the damage is still with us.

[mathjak107]

i have another limit order in for tlt today at 159.99 ... this is the 4th time this week on tlt .

two at gains one got stopped out at slight loss.

i went back to short term trading it . it seems to follow every gain with a dip .

[Vil]

i have another limit order in for tlt today at 159.99 ... this is the 4th time this week on tlt .

two at gains one got stopped out at slight loss.

i went back to short term trading it . it seems to follow every gain with a dip .

Appears there is convergence - nice support at 200 SMA on daily, 160$ also looks a decent support .. some indicators are slightly bullish as well .. let's see..