2022 PP predictions

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seajay
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by seajay » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:11 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:46 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:42 am
The PP is dead.
The hope for the pp is that rising rates and covid kill growth and knock us towards recession stalling the rise

Certainly plausible .

But the only question is how much the pp will need to work its way back ..almost every day seems to put the pp further behind the inflation curve
Whilst a 2x PP variant looks fine, 12% annualized real so far since January 2020 :)

viewtopic.php?p=236992#p236992
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jalanlong
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by jalanlong » Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:21 pm

Cullen Roche sums it up nicely:


Roche.PNG
Roche.PNG (51.47 KiB) Viewed 3979 times
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by Xan » Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:28 pm

"A former McDonald's CEO warns that a surge in retiring baby boomers amid ongoing hiring struggles will lead to a 'catastrophe'":
https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer- ... nsi-2022-1

Which asset(s) would a "major shortfall of workers" cause to rise and fall? And what would it do to inflation?
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:43 pm

seajay wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:11 am

Whilst a 2x PP variant looks fine, 12% annualized real so far since January 2020 :)

viewtopic.php?p=236992#p236992
Nice to see “variant” in a positive context.
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by whatchamacallit » Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:13 pm

Xan wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:28 pm
"A former McDonald's CEO warns that a surge in retiring baby boomers amid ongoing hiring struggles will lead to a 'catastrophe'":
https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer- ... nsi-2022-1

Which asset(s) would a "major shortfall of workers" cause to rise and fall? And what would it do to inflation?
Cheeseburgers to the moon. How do you save in ready to eat cheeseburgers long term?
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by Xan » Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:16 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:13 pm
Xan wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:28 pm
"A former McDonald's CEO warns that a surge in retiring baby boomers amid ongoing hiring struggles will lead to a 'catastrophe'":
https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer- ... nsi-2022-1

Which asset(s) would a "major shortfall of workers" cause to rise and fall? And what would it do to inflation?
Cheeseburgers to the moon. How do you save in ready to eat cheeseburgers long term?
I don't think the subject was McDonald's particularly. He means a general catastrophe. So maybe it's "food to the moon" and we should stock up on MREs?
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by perfect_simulation » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:40 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:46 am
every day seems to put the pp further behind the inflation curve
HB said in his podcast that gold won't move on mild inflation. When inflation sustains 7% or 9% or higher, then gold will take off. And of course you need to own it before this happens...which all PPer's are.
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by Dieter » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:04 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:21 pm
Cullen Roche sums it up nicely:



Roche.PNG
Possibly not the exact order I'd put it into (ha!), but, basically my sentiment. For the last few years.

what do I know?
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:22 am

perfect_simulation wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:40 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:46 am
every day seems to put the pp further behind the inflation curve
HB said in his podcast that gold won't move on mild inflation. When inflation sustains 7% or 9% or higher, then gold will take off. And of course you need to own it before this happens...which all PPer's are.
That could be like waiting so long for the ship to come in the pier collapses the way gold has been…

Especially now with digital competition in crypto
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by D1984 » Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:53 am

Xan wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 2:28 pm
"A former McDonald's CEO warns that a surge in retiring baby boomers amid ongoing hiring struggles will lead to a 'catastrophe'":
https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer- ... nsi-2022-1

Which asset(s) would a "major shortfall of workers" cause to rise and fall? And what would it do to inflation?
I don't know......but I do know that there is no such thing as a "major shortfall of workers" or a "shortage of workers". What there IS is a shortage of workers at the crappy wages McDonald's (and more than a few other fast food restaurants) would prefer to pay.

If they raised their wages they would find that at the new higher wage there wasn't a shortage of workers any more. If there was still a shortage at that wage they would need to raise it until the market cleared.

It's like they have forgotten how basic supply and demand works or something. For instance, if they served mediocre to outrightly nasty food, had rude employees who didn't even care if the customer's order was correct or not, the place was never clean, and they charged twice what Burger King did they would soon find themselves without any customers...but that wouldn't be a "customer shortage" per se, it would merely be a shortage of customers at the prices McDonald's was asking and/or at the quality of product they were trying to sell! The same applies to the so-called "labor shortage". If they find themselves lacking employees for a given pay level they are offering, they either need to raise their pay, offer more perks and benefits, offer more regular and secure scheduling, or else accept that they will either have less than the amount of employees they desire and/or less than the quality of employees they desire.

Simple supply and demand 101. A third grader could understand this. I don't know why a former CEO of McDonald's can't seem to grasp it.
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by dualstow » Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:32 am

D1984 wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:53 am

What there IS is a shortage of workers at the crappy wages McDonald's (and more than a few other fast food restaurants) would prefer to pay.

🚧 I started a new thread: - Wages 🚧
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:56 am

It looks like we’re 75 stocks/25 cash again today...more pain ahead.
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:10 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:56 am
It looks like we’re 75 stocks/25 cash again today...more pain ahead.
The same applies to the pp …when 3 or all 4 asset classes fall it is like having a very high equity level as far as down is down.

There is no yin vs Yang going on. My models are no different….nothing is standing up
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:13 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:10 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:56 am
It looks like we’re 75 stocks/25 cash again today...more pain ahead.
The same applies to the pp …when 3 or all 4 asset classes fall it is like having a very high equity level as far as down is down.

There is no yin vs Yang going on
Yeah, I’m referring to the PP - Gold and LTT’s declining with stocks (as usual).
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:15 am

Which is why looking in the rear view mirror to feel better is fruitless …all that matters is what is happening now and tomorrow and where our balances go from here
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by seajay » Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:18 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:10 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:56 am
It looks like we’re 75 stocks/25 cash again today...more pain ahead.
The same applies to the pp …when 3 or all 4 asset classes fall it is like having a very high equity level as far as down is down.

There is no yin vs Yang going on. My models are no different….nothing is standing up
But a less uncomfortable down. As I see it even a consistent 0% real has 4% SWR last 25 years, sees a 65 year old through to age 90, which in many cases will be beyond a lifetime. The PP is more resilient to hitting a sustained bad/negative sequence of returns that might otherwise pull down that 25 year timeframe. More for those desiring return of capital rather than return on capital.
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:22 am

The problem is many users of conservative portfolios do so for a reason …they dislike volatility and hope they see less of it ..

So many just have lower pucker factor and so when all asset classes move together they can still react just as bad as those with higher pucker factor with higher volatility….

If you look at morningstar small investor returns vs the funds returns there is not a big difference in bad investor behavior in balanced funds vs all equities.

Those in lower volatility stuff just tend to have a lower switch point where they get that feeling in their stomach about a drop that they hoped to avoid.

I am sure many here get that feeling when day after day their Balances are shrinking.death by a thousand cuts is no better

Human nature is such that we hate losing money more than making it .

It really looks like today there is no yin and Yang effect and all conservative models are pretty much in the same boat….what ever you hold is down

My basic core portfolio which is 25% equities is down ytd 1.26% …the pp is down over 2% ….so there is no avoiding things now.

The pp is down almost twice as much so you can’t even say it will fall less because of it’s supposed yin and Yang effect.

I would forget trying to do the mental masturbation thing with the rear view mirror and past charts and returns and keep your eye on the ball as far as where it goes next.

We are all in the same boat
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by perfect_simulation » Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:13 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:10 am
….nothing is standing up
I see the dollar going up. Other assets are cheaper to buy now
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:32 am

If you own them they are going down
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Re: 2022 PP predictions

Post by Pet Hog » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:40 pm

Pet Hog wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:48 pm
PP: slightly down (guessing -3% nominal)
Just here to gloat about how my accurate my prediction was! (I reached -3% nominal today.)

Umm ... bodes well from here on in!
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