Yay PP!

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buddtholomew
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:53 am

Thanks to all those who continue to drag my name through the mud.
Take a look at the wonderful PP today with stocks down 2%+ and Gold/LTT’s basically flat.
Portfolio is garbage.
You lose on the upside and the downside.
Keep the faith though, I’m sure it will turn out well.
Dolts.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by Don » Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:59 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:53 am
Thanks to all those who continue to drag my name through the mud.
Take a look at the wonderful PP today with stocks down 2%+ and Gold/LTT’s basically flat.
Portfolio is garbage.
You lose on the upside and the downside.
Keep the faith though, I’m sure it will turn out well.
Dolts.
Budd, if stocks are down 2% today while gold, LTTs and cash are flat, that means that the PP portfolio is down only one quarter of what a 100% stock portfolio is. Don't you see that?
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:01 am

Don wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:59 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:53 am
Thanks to all those who continue to drag my name through the mud.
Take a look at the wonderful PP today with stocks down 2%+ and Gold/LTT’s basically flat.
Portfolio is garbage.
You lose on the upside and the downside.
Keep the faith though, I’m sure it will turn out well.
Dolts.
Budd, if stocks are down 2% today while gold, LTTs and cash are flat, that means that the PP portfolio is down only one quarter of what a 100% stock portfolio is. Don't you see that?
No one I know is 100/0
Gold and LTT’s aren’t working, might as well be cash.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by Xan » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:10 am

Budd, people don't like being called "Dolts".

Are you expecting that after being called a name, they'll say, "Oh! Budd must be right after all because I am a dolt?" It's no way to convince your audience of anything.

Or are you just angry at the posters here and want to hurt us?
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buddtholomew
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:17 am

Xan wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:10 am
Budd, people don't like being called "Dolts".

Are you expecting that after being called a name, they'll say, "Oh! Budd must be right after all because I am a dolt?" It's no way to convince your audience of anything.

Or are you just angry at the posters here and want to hurt us?
Too bad.
My name gets dragged around enough around here.
Just pointing out that I can be a bully as well just like some of you.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by Kevin K. » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:19 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:53 am
Thanks to all those who continue to drag my name through the mud.
Take a look at the wonderful PP today with stocks down 2%+ and Gold/LTT’s basically flat.
Portfolio is garbage.
You lose on the upside and the downside.
Keep the faith though, I’m sure it will turn out well.
Dolts.
We've seen this movie many times before - including two years ago, as Tyler points out in this piece, which is well worth revisiting on a day like today:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/03/23/ ... ful-month/

Personally, I can think of a number of allocations other than the PP that merit being characterized as "garbage" - based on actual performance both in general and (especially) in times of crisis.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:11 am

Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:19 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:53 am
Thanks to all those who continue to drag my name through the mud.
Take a look at the wonderful PP today with stocks down 2%+ and Gold/LTT’s basically flat.
Portfolio is garbage.
You lose on the upside and the downside.
Keep the faith though, I’m sure it will turn out well.
Dolts.
We've seen this movie many times before - including two years ago, as Tyler points out in this piece, which is well worth revisiting on a day like today:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/03/23/ ... ful-month/

Personally, I can think of a number of allocations other than the PP that merit being characterized as "garbage" - based on actual performance both in general and (especially) in times of crisis.
It's funny how we are having very different reactions. My GB-ish portfolio is basically flat (up a percent). I am ecstatically happy at the moment with this portfolio. Now my other value based portfolio in my taxable account makes me want to puke at the moment. I call it emotional anti-correlated portfolios!

But seriously bud, this could be the wrong portfolio for you. As someone who maintains large complex systems, I always feel very happy when there is silence. Nothing appears to be happening. Which means that all the resilient systems are moving underneath the calm surface.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:22 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:11 am
Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:19 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:53 am
Thanks to all those who continue to drag my name through the mud.
Take a look at the wonderful PP today with stocks down 2%+ and Gold/LTT’s basically flat.
Portfolio is garbage.
You lose on the upside and the downside.
Keep the faith though, I’m sure it will turn out well.
Dolts.
We've seen this movie many times before - including two years ago, as Tyler points out in this piece, which is well worth revisiting on a day like today:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/03/23/ ... ful-month/

Personally, I can think of a number of allocations other than the PP that merit being characterized as "garbage" - based on actual performance both in general and (especially) in times of crisis.
It's funny how we are having very different reactions. My GB-ish portfolio is basically flat (up a percent). I am ecstatically happy at the moment with this portfolio. Now my other value based portfolio in my taxable account makes me want to puke at the moment. I call it emotional anti-correlated portfolios!

But seriously bud, this could be the wrong portfolio for you. As someone who maintains large complex systems, I always feel very happy when there is silence. Nothing appears to be happening. Which means that all the resilient systems are moving underneath the calm surface.
You can’t be flat, impossible
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:32 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:22 am
ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:11 am
Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:19 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:53 am
Thanks to all those who continue to drag my name through the mud.
Take a look at the wonderful PP today with stocks down 2%+ and Gold/LTT’s basically flat.
Portfolio is garbage.
You lose on the upside and the downside.
Keep the faith though, I’m sure it will turn out well.
Dolts.
We've seen this movie many times before - including two years ago, as Tyler points out in this piece, which is well worth revisiting on a day like today:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/03/23/ ... ful-month/

Personally, I can think of a number of allocations other than the PP that merit being characterized as "garbage" - based on actual performance both in general and (especially) in times of crisis.
It's funny how we are having very different reactions. My GB-ish portfolio is basically flat (up a percent). I am ecstatically happy at the moment with this portfolio. Now my other value based portfolio in my taxable account makes me want to puke at the moment. I call it emotional anti-correlated portfolios!

But seriously bud, this could be the wrong portfolio for you. As someone who maintains large complex systems, I always feel very happy when there is silence. Nothing appears to be happening. Which means that all the resilient systems are moving underneath the calm surface.
You can’t be flat, impossible
Just checked - up .07% (today). - That's strange that you say that. If you have a tilt towards the 30 year end of LTT, Gold, and Cash. They are all holding steady today moving a tiny bit upward. The longer you LTT's today the better. I have FNBGX plus actual 30 LTT's (about 25%).

Very smart people here. Maybe we should triage what is going on with your portfolio.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:44 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:32 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:22 am
ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:11 am
Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:19 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:53 am
Thanks to all those who continue to drag my name through the mud.
Take a look at the wonderful PP today with stocks down 2%+ and Gold/LTT’s basically flat.
Portfolio is garbage.
You lose on the upside and the downside.
Keep the faith though, I’m sure it will turn out well.
Dolts.
We've seen this movie many times before - including two years ago, as Tyler points out in this piece, which is well worth revisiting on a day like today:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/03/23/ ... ful-month/

Personally, I can think of a number of allocations other than the PP that merit being characterized as "garbage" - based on actual performance both in general and (especially) in times of crisis.
It's funny how we are having very different reactions. My GB-ish portfolio is basically flat (up a percent). I am ecstatically happy at the moment with this portfolio. Now my other value based portfolio in my taxable account makes me want to puke at the moment. I call it emotional anti-correlated portfolios!

But seriously bud, this could be the wrong portfolio for you. As someone who maintains large complex systems, I always feel very happy when there is silence. Nothing appears to be happening. Which means that all the resilient systems are moving underneath the calm surface.
You can’t be flat, impossible
Just checked - up .07% (today). - That's strange that you say that. If you have a tilt towards the 30 year end of LTT, Gold, and Cash. They are all holding steady today moving a tiny bit upward. The longer you LTT's today the better. I have FNBGX plus actual 30 LTT's (about 25%).

Very smart people here. Maybe we should triage what is going on with your portfolio.
Lay out your individual holdings and returns.
SPY -3.35%
IAU +.23%
TLT +.15%
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:07 pm

38.38% Stocks (This is a bout 40 percent a tech mutual fund - FSELX and then the rest S&P 500)
21.60% - Cash - Moved it into SCHO recently to reduce fees and hopefully have some clarity as to what it was comprised of - treasury notes
16.97% - LTT - FNBGX - and some actual LTT's - Maybe a little more based on a small recent purchase...
23.05% - Gold - IAU

I could be off but because its a fido account and some of the stuff is in mutual funds that settle at the end of the day....I am probably not off much. And those numbers you showed still make me happy.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:14 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:07 pm
38.38% Stocks (This is a bout 40 percent a tech mutual fund - FSELX and then the rest S&P 500)
21.60% - Cash - Moved it into SCHO recently to reduce fees and hopefully have some clarity as to what it was comprised of - treasury notes
16.97% - LTT - FNBGX - and some actual LTT's - Maybe a little more based on a small recent purchase...
23.05% - Gold - IAU

I could be off but because its a fido account and some of the stuff is in mutual funds that settle at the end of the day....I am probably not off much. And those numbers you showed still make me happy.
Also:

SPY -3.35%
IAU +.23%
TLT +.15%

It works out because if you look 3/4 of my stock is SPY which makes it down 1 percent and the rest up a few basis points. So the numbers work. But this a portfolio to preserve money. It's working for me today and will hopefully continue. I was just on the phone with a friend talking him off a cliff because he's freaking out about his stock portfolio.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:16 pm

You’ve got a lot to learn my friend....looking at mutual funds for intraday prices doh

Good luck to you.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:19 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:16 pm
You’ve got a lot to learn my friend....looking at mutual funds for intraday prices doh

Good luck to you.
Let's see how it goes at the end of the day. I'll throw out the number!
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:54 pm

The PP has failed me and I only hope the rest of the board opens their eyes to see what is unfolding.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by Hal » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:00 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:54 pm
The PP has failed me and I only hope the rest of the board opens their eyes to see what is unfolding.
Hi Budd,

What portfolio has worked for you? Or is the PP the least worst option.
Remember the saying, any day above the dirt is a good day ;)
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by dockinGA » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:09 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:54 pm
The PP has failed me and I only hope the rest of the board opens their eyes to see what is unfolding.
What were your expectations when you got in the portfolio? When did you get into the portfolio?
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by barrett » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:22 pm

Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:23 am
barrett wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:43 am
Kevin K. wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:09 am
The only modification I've made to the GB is to use intermediate Treasuries instead of the barbell - VGIT specifically because it's not only low-cost but keeps average maturity to 5 years (which used to be the default definition of "intermediate" but many funds, from pure Treasuries to total market ones like BND and actively-managed bond-heavy funds like Wellesley have been pushing maturities [and thus interest rate risk] out to ~8-9 years in search of yield. I have a couple of years of supplemental (I'm taking SS and that covers most of our essential expenses) expenses in iBonds and NCUA-insured MM paying .35%.
Kevin, Do you then hold more like 30% in ITTs and less cash? That is how I have been leaning toward setting up my retirement accounts. Those are currently probably too high in STTs, but with the Fed planning to raise rates I keep thinking that maybe I should hold off on committing to ITTs. Market timing, I know.
Yeah I of course have had the same thoughts, while reminding myself that forecasting interest rates (even in a case like this where the Fed has explicitly announced their intentions) is if anything even more of a fool's errand than timing the stock market. Tyler would doubtless remind us of his article on bond convexity and perhaps point out that the weighted average maturity of the specified STT/LTT barbell is only about 11 years, so still "intermediate." But yeah, what I've done is to keep at least 30% in ITT's, with the 10% in cash being a mixture of iBonds and MM funds. Based on the backtesting I did on both Portfolio Charts and Portfolio Visualizer using all ITT's has historically been just as good as the barbell for both returns and protection during market meltdowns but obviously we are in uncharted waters with interest rates being so low and equity valuations so frothy. At the end of the day I guess my current thinking is to still have lots of ITTs for ballast even though they're likely to have negative returns for a few years while hoping that the substantial allocation to SCV and gold provide some protection during the next major market meltdown.

Actually when it comes to tweaks I think there's a decent argument to be made that replacing TSM (whose returns are pretty much entirely driven by the FAANG stocks and which includes a fair amount of mid and small cap) with an S&P 500 and using a super-value-y SCV fund like AVUV (run by ex-DFA folks and the topic of much discussion and glowing recommendations on Bogleheads and by Larry Swedroe, Merriman and other SCV advocates) might be more fruitful than messing with the bonds. But like you I have to pay very close attention to capital gains so I keep things pretty plain vanilla except for the ITT's.
Really appreciate this back and forth, Kevin. I see it's getting overwhelmed with other stuff but I guess we are in the wrong thread! Anyway, much appreciated!!
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:37 pm

barrett wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:22 pm
Kevin K. wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:23 am
barrett wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 6:43 am
Kevin K. wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:09 am
The only modification I've made to the GB is to use intermediate Treasuries instead of the barbell - VGIT specifically because it's not only low-cost but keeps average maturity to 5 years (which used to be the default definition of "intermediate" but many funds, from pure Treasuries to total market ones like BND and actively-managed bond-heavy funds like Wellesley have been pushing maturities [and thus interest rate risk] out to ~8-9 years in search of yield. I have a couple of years of supplemental (I'm taking SS and that covers most of our essential expenses) expenses in iBonds and NCUA-insured MM paying .35%.
Kevin, Do you then hold more like 30% in ITTs and less cash? That is how I have been leaning toward setting up my retirement accounts. Those are currently probably too high in STTs, but with the Fed planning to raise rates I keep thinking that maybe I should hold off on committing to ITTs. Market timing, I know.
Yeah I of course have had the same thoughts, while reminding myself that forecasting interest rates (even in a case like this where the Fed has explicitly announced their intentions) is if anything even more of a fool's errand than timing the stock market. Tyler would doubtless remind us of his article on bond convexity and perhaps point out that the weighted average maturity of the specified STT/LTT barbell is only about 11 years, so still "intermediate." But yeah, what I've done is to keep at least 30% in ITT's, with the 10% in cash being a mixture of iBonds and MM funds. Based on the backtesting I did on both Portfolio Charts and Portfolio Visualizer using all ITT's has historically been just as good as the barbell for both returns and protection during market meltdowns but obviously we are in uncharted waters with interest rates being so low and equity valuations so frothy. At the end of the day I guess my current thinking is to still have lots of ITTs for ballast even though they're likely to have negative returns for a few years while hoping that the substantial allocation to SCV and gold provide some protection during the next major market meltdown.

Actually when it comes to tweaks I think there's a decent argument to be made that replacing TSM (whose returns are pretty much entirely driven by the FAANG stocks and which includes a fair amount of mid and small cap) with an S&P 500 and using a super-value-y SCV fund like AVUV (run by ex-DFA folks and the topic of much discussion and glowing recommendations on Bogleheads and by Larry Swedroe, Merriman and other SCV advocates) might be more fruitful than messing with the bonds. But like you I have to pay very close attention to capital gains so I keep things pretty plain vanilla except for the ITT's.
Really appreciate this back and forth, Kevin. I see it's getting overwhelmed with other stuff but I guess we are in the wrong thread! Anyway, much appreciated!!
Agree - This is valuable.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:52 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:19 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:16 pm
You’ve got a lot to learn my friend....looking at mutual funds for intraday prices doh

Good luck to you.
Let's see how it goes at the end of the day. I'll throw out the number!
DING DING DING....Closing bell.. My GB Up 0.17% vs TSM up 0.64%

One thing to consider if the PP is not working for you. Is switching during the next marked correction. For example:

If during the most recent crash you had a 100 shares worth of HBPP and it crashed to about 92, you could have sold that and purchased about ~137 shares of the total stock market because it went down about 33 percent . So now you have 137 shares of the total stock market which doubled over the following two years. So you would have increased the value of your portfolio about 2.74 times.
Screen Shot 2022-01-24 at 12.13.29 PM.png
Screen Shot 2022-01-24 at 12.13.29 PM.png (813.12 KiB) Viewed 4673 times
An Investment Banker suggested that to me during the last crash. Basically sell your pile of stability to buy stuff when its cheap.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:28 pm

I'm down a bit over 3% for the YTD. OMG what a disaster!!!! Good portfolios don't go down!!!!

But over 10 years I'm up about 87%, after allowing for the cash flows. That's a rough number: (Ending balance + net cash out - Starting balance) / Starting balance. My IRR for 10 years has been 6%. No regrets, none.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:36 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:28 pm
I'm down a bit over 3% for the YTD. OMG what a disaster!!!! Good portfolios don't go down!!!!

But over 10 years I'm up about 87%, after allowing for the cash flows. That's a rough number: (Ending balance + net cash out - Starting balance) / Starting balance. My IRR for 10 years has been 6%. No regrets, none.
IRR of 6% is a beautiful thing. Here is a nice graphic on investor psychology from the Mutiny Fund. Admittedly, this is not a GB or a HBPP but a good illustration on why perceptions can be misleading
Screen Shot 2022-01-24 at 2.33.50 PM.png
Screen Shot 2022-01-24 at 2.33.50 PM.png (1.33 MiB) Viewed 5190 times
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:58 pm

barrett wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:00 am
ppnewbie wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:01 am
Sure. I need to recalculate everything. The reason I say GB ish is that I converted a retirement into a GB. Like apart of the stock allocation is a portion of the Account that is a Roth. It has tech mutual fund in it. I did not sell that but count it as a stock.

Anyway I’ll throw it out in a bit.

Also totally agree on the taxable. There is no way I could make such wholesale modifications in my taxable and not get wrecked with taxes. And then face the same thing in every rebalance.
No need to recalculate anything for my benefit. What you posted is already helpful. I think the part that I bolded is tough for a lot of folks to figure out. A switch in AA is easy to do in tax-advantaged accounts but much tougher in taxable, especially later in life when assets are substantial and maybe one has no disposable earned income to throw into a lagging asset.
Here is an interesting take on rebalancing, especially in a taxable account.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAjIiaN6zHM

Basically rebalance 50% towards your ideal allocation instead of resetting to your portfolio asset allocation model. So if you have an allocation of 40 percent stocks and your band is 10 percent. Once you get to 50 percent stocks you rebalance down to 45 percent stocks vs rebalancing back to 40 percent.

I need to read the paper referenced:
https://www.financialplanningassociatio ... nagers.pdf

Bogleheads thread on it:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10670
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by Hal » Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:03 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:58 pm

Here is an interesting take on rebalancing, especially in a taxable account.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAjIiaN6zHM

Basically rebalance 50% towards your ideal allocation instead of resetting to your portfolio asset allocation model. So if you have an allocation of 40 percent stocks and your band is 10 percent. Once you get to 50 percent stocks you rebalance down to 45 percent stocks vs rebalancing back to 40 percent.

I need to read the paper referenced:
https://www.financialplanningassociatio ... nagers.pdf

Bogleheads thread on it:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10670
You may find BelangP's video on rebalancing interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtykd_RFKDI
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:02 pm

PP hurting bad.
Gold and LTT’s cannibalizing each other to the downside as rates rise.
Sucks for sure.
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