Yay PP!

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ppnewbie
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:50 pm

From 11/30 2020
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:10 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:33 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:30 pm
I don’t track performance since I retired and we are drawing out 6 figures a year ..only tracking I do personally is i compare balances left year to year …it’s the only thing that matters now

Any performance tracking I do is done by the newsletter in the models themselves and i use a mix of two of them .

Plus I also have my inflation hedge portfolio which I have in place .

So it really serves me no purpose trying to track what goes on personally ….we also have pension and ss going in to the same accounts too so it would be a crazy amount of work to track it personally since it serves me no purpose
Just to understand a mix of these two funds makes up seventy five percent of your portfolio, correct? Can you reveal the specifics of those two funds because the site just says "Growth and Income" and "Income"?
Thanks for the info Mathjak. Its tough to know what is relevant in your comments, at least for me. You have alot of moving parts. SS, Pension, A newsletter you use to rebalance a combo of two buckets of funds that are actively managed that is...75 percent of your portfolio, the other part contains bitcoin.

So I want to figure out.

How many percentage points did your portfolio drop from Jan 31 2020 to March 31 2020. IE the big crash (just the fund part and then the whole portfolio and then the whole portfolio MINUS bitcoin).

When I get a moment I am going to throw all those funds with the 11/20 allocation.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:12 pm

No idea …All I can tell you is what the individual models show since I only do a year end balance comparison AFTER OUR YEARLY SPENDING.

There are just to many moving parts in retirement because many pieces of the portfolio are in our taxable account we live on .

So money is always going in and coming out.. it is just to mind boggling with so much going on , especially when it is not a performance oriented portfolio to track short term events .

I reached a point that i want to go as conservative as I can , yet meet goal of staying a head of the previous years balance if we can or at least every two years should be a new high despite the spending down if we are down a year .

So far so good
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by seajay » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:31 pm

Pet Hog wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:04 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:45 pm
Kitces looked into rebalancing .

Assuming a 50/50 with an average of 10% a year on equities and bonds averaging 5% , over 30 years the 50/50 would become 80/20 just letting assets drift

https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-rebalan ... nt-anyway/
We can see a similar thing in seajay's "non-rebalanced" PP from 1978 to today.
seajay wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:43 pm
Rebalanced vs non-rebalanced and the two progression lines followed much the same lines, but where the non-rebalanced was seeing increased negative side portfolio volatility as early as the 4th year (-14% vs -5%)
Looking at the "Allocation Drift" tab on Portfolio Visualizer gives the following chart. For a non-rebalanced PP started in January 1978, now 44 years later stocks are at 73%, LTTs at 16%, cash at 6%, and gold at 5%. That's a stock-to-LTT ratio of 82:18.

Looking at the gold allocation, it seems there have been three great times to rebalance: around 1980 (get out), around 2000 (get in), and around 2012 (get out). Looking for a pattern, the last five years look similar to the five years up to around 1998 (with stock allocation up, LTTs sort of steady, and cash and gold both squeezed). So perhaps there'll soon be a next great time to get into gold. It certainly feels that way, intuitively, to me.
Image
The Dow/Gold ratio provides a reasonable indicator of when gold is expensive/Dow is cheap or vice versa
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:43 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:12 pm
No idea …All I can tell you is what the individual models show since I only do a year end balance comparison AFTER OUR YEARLY SPENDING.

There are just to many moving parts in retirement because many pieces of the portfolio are in our taxable account we live on .

So money is always going in and coming out.. it is just to mind boggling with so much going on , especially when it is not a performance oriented portfolio to track short term events .

I reached a point that i want to go as conservative as I can , yet meet goal of staying a head of the previous years balance if we can or at least every two years should be a new high despite the spending down if we are down a year .

So far so good
I did some "figuring" and it seems like you are at about 23ish percent equities and the rest mostly debt. I wonder if this is basically Wellesley + plus gold (with some bitcoin thrown in for some fuggazi rocket fuel).

I like the strategic real return fund. Going to look more closely at all the funds in that fund of funds.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by dockinGA » Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:59 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:30 pm
I don’t track performance since I retired and we are drawing out 6 figures a year ..only tracking I do personally is i compare balances left year to year …it’s the only thing that matters now

Any performance tracking I do is done by the newsletter in the models themselves and i use a mix of two of them .

Plus I also have my inflation hedge portfolio which I have in place .

So it really serves me no purpose trying to track what goes on personally ….we also have pension and ss going in to the same accounts too so it would be a crazy amount of work to track it personally and it serves me no purpose.

I care how the portfolios do as a whole so I can see what the income model does based on the newsletter tacking and I can see the growth model ..but how i mix them is not tracked by me
Perhaps you could track this to realize how much money you ultimately cost yourself with your daytrading adventures.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by dockinGA » Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:02 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:10 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:33 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:30 pm
I don’t track performance since I retired and we are drawing out 6 figures a year ..only tracking I do personally is i compare balances left year to year …it’s the only thing that matters now

Any performance tracking I do is done by the newsletter in the models themselves and i use a mix of two of them .

Plus I also have my inflation hedge portfolio which I have in place .

So it really serves me no purpose trying to track what goes on personally ….we also have pension and ss going in to the same accounts too so it would be a crazy amount of work to track it personally since it serves me no purpose
Just to understand a mix of these two funds makes up seventy five percent of your portfolio, correct? Can you reveal the specifics of those two funds because the site just says "Growth and Income" and "Income"?
Thanks for the info Mathjak. Its tough to know what is relevant in your comments, at least for me. You have alot of moving parts. SS, Pension, A newsletter you use to rebalance a combo of two buckets of funds that are actively managed that is...75 percent of your portfolio, the other part contains bitcoin.

So I want to figure out.

How many percentage points did your portfolio drop from Jan 31 2020 to March 31 2020. IE the big crash (just the fund part and then the whole portfolio and then the whole portfolio MINUS bitcoin).

When I get a moment I am going to throw all those funds with the 11/20 allocation.
If he had this info, and disclosed it on this forum, everyone would realize him as the charlatan that he is.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:23 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:02 pm
If he had this info, and disclosed it on this forum, everyone would realize him as the charlatan that he is.
I don’t think he’s a charlatan at all. However, without the numbers, there’s a lot of confidence in these posts in pretty much every nook anad cranny of this, a permanent portfolio forum, considering they go against the pp. Perhaps too much confidence.

Perhaps you could track this to realize how much money you ultimately cost yourself with your daytrading adventures.
i think that’s a fair suggestion. O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:41 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:23 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:02 pm

If he had this info, and disclosed it on this forum, everyone would realize him as the charlatan that he is.


I don’t think he’s a charlatan at all. However, without the numbers, there’s a lot of confidence in these posts in pretty much every nook anad cranny of this, a permanent portfolio forum, considering they go against the pp. Perhaps too much confidence.

Perhaps you could track this to realize how much money you ultimately cost yourself with your daytrading adventures.

i think that’s a fair suggestion. O0


I don't.

I think it's a suggestion to fit others' needs. It's obvious that it is not Mathjak's need as he'd otherwise be doing it.

This feels close to me like fans saying they wish a certain athlete would retire so that they could keep a certain image of that athlete in their mind. It's that athlete's life and all that should matter is what that athlete thinks and not what any fan thinks.

Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:48 pm

As folks can see I am trying to find the signal in the noise. I’ve gotten two solid pieces of info. One was the portfolio break down and the other was list of the funds used (at one point in time). What I don’t know is what were MJ’s allocation in percentages (of the (26.4%).

Apologies in advance - this is going to sound mean here. I was thinking I could write an AI responder using GPT3 and put in the some a few quantitative inputs and come out with much of these posts. Even the allocations.

But…I am still looking for the signal! If it’s there it could be valuable.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by dockinGA » Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:57 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:41 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:23 pm
dockinGA wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:02 pm
If he had this info, and disclosed it on this forum, everyone would realize him as the charlatan that he is.
I don’t think he’s a charlatan at all. However, without the numbers, there’s a lot of confidence in these posts in pretty much every nook anad cranny of this, a permanent portfolio forum, considering they go against the pp. Perhaps too much confidence.

Perhaps you could track this to realize how much money you ultimately cost yourself with your daytrading adventures.
i think that’s a fair suggestion. O0
I don't.

I think it's a suggestion to fit others' needs. It's obvious that it is not Mathjak's need as he'd otherwise be doing it.

This feels close to me like fans saying they wish a certain athlete would retire so that they could keep a certain image of that athlete in their mind. It's that athlete's life and all that should matter is what that athlete thinks and not what any fan thinks.
If he's going to hijack every thread, he better come with proof that he at least halfway knows what he's talking about. If his 'needs' don't involve tracking his yearly performance for his daytrading, then he shouldn't come on the forum saying the things that he says.

We're coming up on a year since I first got into an argument with him about his predictions on 30 year rates, and we're still waiting on rates to go up from where we were at that time back in May 2021 (~2.4% then, ~2.2% now).

If he thinks he's the guy that can buck tons and tons of academic data saying that it's nigh on impossible for anyone to consistently beat the market, know which way interest rates are going, etc. etc., then he better come with data and facts to back it up, or he's not going to have a lot of credibility. Regardless of what his needs are.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:06 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:41 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:23 pm
dockinGA wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:02 pm
If he had this info, and disclosed it on this forum, everyone would realize him as the charlatan that he is.
I don’t think he’s a charlatan at all. However, without the numbers, there’s a lot of confidence in these posts in pretty much every nook anad cranny of this, a permanent portfolio forum, considering they go against the pp. Perhaps too much confidence.

Perhaps you could track this to realize how much money you ultimately cost yourself with your daytrading adventures.
i think that’s a fair suggestion. O0
I don't.

I think it's a suggestion to fit others' needs. It's obvious that it is not Mathjak's need as he'd otherwise be doing it.

This feels close to me like fans saying they wish a certain athlete would retire so that they could keep a certain image of that athlete in their mind. It's that athlete's life and all that should matter is what that athlete thinks and not what any fan thinks.
I disagree on the specific point of at least attempting to back up what you say with something real.

My portfolio shows 100 percent difference in its interest rate sensitivity. 1.5% to 3.0% over an 18 day time period. That actually is a little upsetting.
What are your returns vs the portfolio this forum is based on. - I don’t really know.
Then tell me what percentage drop did you have during the time we all remember welll. - I have SS and a Pension.

If MJ is real - congratulations on the SS and Pension - the rest is just gravy.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:21 pm

OK last question for MJ.

Is the following statement true?

This statement is false.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by dockinGA » Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:26 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:06 pm
MJ said it himself that an investment should be evaluated based on its long term performance, yet it seems to only apply to stocks.

When it comes to the PP, then somehow he can't understand that gold has had the longest track record of keeping its purchasing power over time but no, we must look at the price movement today and how it responds to changes in interest rate expectations in the short term.

When it comes to long term treasuries, he can't understand that a constant duration fixed income portfolio is basically constantly reinvesting in bonds that will be maturing a long time from now, yet it again is important how they respond to interest rate changes in the short term.

When it comes to cash, he can't understand that it is an option to buy the other assets at a cheaper price some time in the future but no it has to be a drag on the portfolio's return and is guaranteed to lose money to inflation.

But stocks are fine, even when they can fall to the point where circuit breakers are triggered multiple times a day and yet the under 1% daily volatility of the PP isn't what PP investors probably signed up for. I know exactly what I've signed up for in the PP, I evaluate those assumptions on a daily basis and nothing is broken right now. If things break then I'll be the first to sound the alarm.
Well said.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:03 pm

Vinny, your analogy is flawed in at least two ways, but probably far more than that. This just has nothing to do with fans of an athlete. Hell, it has nothing to do with entertainment! These are people’s financial plans we’re talking about here. Retirement! Financial security!
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:35 am

I I know exactly how each individual portfolio does and my own results are in between the income model and the growth model ..I have no reason to get in to the weeds with a lot of calculations .

What I do take interest in is how just the income model compares to the pp since they are the same equity allocation only the income model is more conservative then the pp as the assets surrounding the equities are less volatile….

The pp should have better returns taking on more risk in the other assets.. however I am interested if that is still going to be the case since last year when the rate and inflation fears began ..so far the pp lagged it last year and is behind it in this years sell off. So it isn’t a case of just 19 days .

So you have it backwards ….the pp SHOULD DO better then the more conservative income model but my whole theory is I don’t think that is going to be the case in rising rates and inflation fears.

I think there is to much drag in this new environment on the pp and the pp is riskier and may not see the reward for the extra rate risk
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:03 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by seajay » Thu Jan 20, 2022 3:31 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:21 pm
OK last question for MJ.

Is the following statement true?

This statement is false.
Jumping in, reminded of ...

You are a prisoner in a room with 2 doors and 2 guards. One of the doors will guide you to freedom and behind the other is a hangman–you don't know which is which.

One of the guards always tells the truth and the other always lies. You don't know which one is the truth-teller or the liar either. However both guards know each other.

You have to choose and open one of these doors, but you can only ask a single question to one of the guards.

What do you ask to find the door leading to freedom?

If you asked the truth-guard, the truth-guard would tell you that the liar-guard would point to the door that leads to death.

If you asked the liar-guard, the liar-guard would tell you that the truth-guard would point to the door that leads to death.

Therefore, no matter who you ask, the guards tell you which door leads to death, and therefore you can pick the other door.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by dockinGA » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:17 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:35 am
I I know exactly how each individual portfolio does and my own results are in between the income model and the growth model ..I have no reason to get in to the weeds with a lot of calculations .

What I do take interest in is how just the income model compares to the pp since they are the same equity allocation only the income model is more conservative then the pp as the assets surrounding the equities are less volatile….

The pp should have better returns taking on more risk in the other assets.. however I am interested if that is still going to be the case since last year when the rate and inflation fears began ..so far the pp lagged it last year and is behind it in this years sell off. So it isn’t a case of just 19 days .

So you have it backwards ….the pp SHOULD DO better then the more conservative income model but my whole theory is I don’t think that is going to be the case in rising rates and inflation fears.

I think there is to much drag in this new environment on the pp and the pp is riskier and may not see the reward for the extra rate risk
The income model is too tilted towards inflation. It's not going to do well in this deflationary environment.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:50 am

dockinGA wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:17 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:35 am
I I know exactly how each individual portfolio does and my own results are in between the income model and the growth model ..I have no reason to get in to the weeds with a lot of calculations .

What I do take interest in is how just the income model compares to the pp since they are the same equity allocation only the income model is more conservative then the pp as the assets surrounding the equities are less volatile….

The pp should have better returns taking on more risk in the other assets.. however I am interested if that is still going to be the case since last year when the rate and inflation fears began ..so far the pp lagged it last year and is behind it in this years sell off. So it isn’t a case of just 19 days .

So you have it backwards ….the pp SHOULD DO better then the more conservative income model but my whole theory is I don’t think that is going to be the case in rising rates and inflation fears.

I think there is to much drag in this new environment on the pp and the pp is riskier and may not see the reward for the extra rate risk
The income model is too tilted towards inflation. It's not going to do well in this deflationary environment.
I agree , I have been Saying that all along ..however that is what we seem to ge stuck in and the fed is not going to have a lot in their arsenal to combat inflation without really upsetting the Apple cart .

Which is why I have the interest in comparing the action of the two in this new environment since last year ….actually more than a year since bonds and gold peaked in august 2020 and have been on a slide since.

So yeah , that is why I compare the two models … mine has way less interest rate risk and less deflation protection , but then again 40% short term treasuries and the rest intermediate term bonds doesn’t need much protection , the pp is a lot of rate risk but has deflation protection ……

Perhaps running the pp and the income model in a 50/50 split can be a win win.

You have two similar CONSERVATIVE PORTFOLIOS but with opposite weighting …Hmmmmmmm
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:55 am

Signal! I think we may have a winner.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:00 am

11 percent drop during the 2020 crash. From 24144 to 21481. Thats good.

Modifying the post a bit. I removed GBTC and this seems to basically track a GB portfolio
Last edited by ppnewbie on Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:02 am

Nice attempt for what it’s worth …your more ambitious than I am. It does backtest well .

Now I need to name it

I think wellsely is close although wellesly does hold a fair amount of long term bonds .

Wellesly is a fine fund for retirement
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:11 am

Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.07.50 AM.png
Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.07.50 AM.png (375.52 KiB) Viewed 5895 times
Longer Term backtest when you take out GBTC (backtest only go to 2016).
Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.10.37 AM.png
Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.10.37 AM.png (295.4 KiB) Viewed 5895 times
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:13 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:02 am
Nice attempt for what it’s worth …your more ambitious than I am. It does backtest well .

Now I need to name it

I think wellsely is close although wellesly does hold a fair amount of long term bonds .

Wellesly is a fine fund for retirement
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Re: Yay PP!

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:14 am

It back tested to within spitting distance of the pp without gbtc and that was through a time that was ripe for the pp with low rates and falling inflation ..

Now it will be interesting to watch it going forward under the opposite conditions
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