Rebalancing into more LTT

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flyingpylon
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by flyingpylon » Sat May 15, 2021 7:05 am

dockinGA wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 6:20 am
I'm not a forum expert, so maybe this is a simple question, but can someone tell me if there's a 'block' button? If so, I might try it, but at that point it could be hard to follow all these discussions.
You can go to your user control panel and add other users as “foes”. When reading a thread you’ll still see that they posted but you’ll have to click a link to unhide the message. If other users quote them you will see those quotes.

The “eye roll, keep scrolling” method is almost as useful.
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doodle
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by doodle » Sat May 15, 2021 7:12 am

The financial experts and mainstream financial pundits have been talking about rising rates and rampant inflation for well over a decade. So far it's failed to materialize. I understand that it feels like we are going to finally be headed into that environment at long last...I get that feeling as well when I listen to 99% of financial shows on YouTube or listen to any of the major networks. However, there is still a large segment of the economic community (although not nearly as vocal usually as the inflationistas) who have a different perspective....and so far they have been right. In addition, it is apparent to me that the individuals in this camp have a much more sophisticated understanding of the markets than the Peter Schiffs of the world. Look up Jeff Snider at Alhambra investments, Dr. Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management, Gary Shilling, Dave Rosenberg....that's only a few of a long list.

If you think you should be familiar with the opposing viewpoints arguments, then this would be a start


https://youtu.be/uptj3_OE9XE


Perhaps you disagree with the conclusions, but to say this man is a nitwit and doesn't understand what he is talking about is plainly false.

Discussion outline

1. Do central banks believe in QE?
2. Why QE didn’t generate inflation after GFC
3. What is money and can central banks control it
4. The importance of banks
5. What caused the 1970s inflation
6. The rise of the offshore dollar (euro-dollar) system
7. Why fiscal stimulus won’t work
8. The problem with market fragility and illiquidity
9. Central banks care about equity markets
10 .What could generate inflation
11. Book that influenced Jeff: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz
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mathjak107
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 15, 2021 7:39 am

dockinGA wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 6:20 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 5:49 am
you do know you dont have to read my comments ... why do you bother ? it makes no sense to read them and complain ... my posts have a lot more informative info then your needless complaining does since you admit to reading what you dont want to read
You've posted 3802 times. In every single conversation that takes place on this board. It's awfully hard to avoid your comments.

And please check my 5 comments from the previous post. Those are in direct refutation/answer to your thoughts on the PP. If you don't think there's any informative info there, that's fine, maybe there's not.

I'm not a forum expert, so maybe this is a simple question, but can someone tell me if there's a 'block' button? If so, I might try it, but at that point it could be hard to follow all these discussions.
And tell me how many posts mention how the United States will be a Japan. Or the big deflation , over and over and over.

Or the worthLess currency group and hyper inflation

This is what a pp discussion will always be about that’s why
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doodle
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by doodle » Sat May 15, 2021 8:02 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 7:39 am
dockinGA wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 6:20 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 5:49 am
you do know you dont have to read my comments ... why do you bother ? it makes no sense to read them and complain ... my posts have a lot more informative info then your needless complaining does since you admit to reading what you dont want to read
You've posted 3802 times. In every single conversation that takes place on this board. It's awfully hard to avoid your comments.

And please check my 5 comments from the previous post. Those are in direct refutation/answer to your thoughts on the PP. If you don't think there's any informative info there, that's fine, maybe there's not.

I'm not a forum expert, so maybe this is a simple question, but can someone tell me if there's a 'block' button? If so, I might try it, but at that point it could be hard to follow all these discussions.
And tell me how many posts mention how the United States will be a Japan. Or the big deflation , over and over and over.

Or the worthLess currency group and hyper inflation

This is what a pp discussion will always be about that’s why
Or the stock bugs like yourself who think this endless summer will go on forever. The fact is no one can predict the future yet you seem to think that your brief lifetimes experience of outsized stock market gains is some sort of investing universal law...ignoring all the special circumstances that caused this particular cycle to turn out the way it did.

I'm not saying for sure we are headed into deflation, or inflation, or continued prosperity. I really have no idea. I fully appreciate Mark Twain's warning that what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so.'
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mathjak107
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 15, 2021 8:08 am

If I was a stock bug I wouldn’t be 25-40% equities.

But the fact is there is really only 4 points that can be discussed in the pp ….so yeah it is going to be the same arguments over and over

We have high to hyper inflation and worthless currency
We have the Japan deflation argument

We have stocks over the long haul and even sometimes short term the lead horse

And we have the pp and the effect of rising rates and rising inflation in today’s world , not decades ago
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doodle
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by doodle » Sat May 15, 2021 8:39 am

If I was a stock bug I wouldn’t be 25-40% equities.

You have mentioned time and again that anyone not needing to draw on retirement funds for 10 years should be 100 percent stocks. That is recency bias.

And yes, the PP because of its focus on economic states will naturally fall towards one of those four topics. And we all have our favorite horse in this race.

Youre betting on the rising rate inflation horse. I'm merely saying it isn't the only strong contender. We very well could end up in that environment (although the means by which we get there are currently unknown) It could be a massive deflationary wave that sends stocks plummeting and bonds to the moon that then breaks all fiscal restraint which sends gold on a tear towards 5000. Which then ignites some other effect..all of this playing out over the course of many years...and so on and so forth.

You seem to not only be certain of eventual outcome but the process by which we will arrive there. I'm only attempting to interject some degree of doubt into your ironclad thesis.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by I Shrugged » Sat May 15, 2021 12:00 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 6:20 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 5:49 am
you do know you dont have to read my comments ... why do you bother ? it makes no sense to read them and complain ... my posts have a lot more informative info then your needless complaining does since you admit to reading what you dont want to read
You've posted 3802 times. In every single conversation that takes place on this board. It's awfully hard to avoid your comments.

And please check my 5 comments from the previous post. Those are in direct refutation/answer to your thoughts on the PP. If you don't think there's any informative info there, that's fine, maybe there's not.

I'm not a forum expert, so maybe this is a simple question, but can someone tell me if there's a 'block' button? If so, I might try it, but at that point it could be hard to follow all these discussions.
I agree with you. It all has fallen on deaf ears.

Yes, there is a block or ignore function, and it works well. I believe you click on the username, then add as a "foe".
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vnatale
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by vnatale » Sat May 15, 2021 8:04 pm

pp4me wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 9:53 pm

dockinGA wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 7:29 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri May 14, 2021 5:55 pm

Well you have to do what you see fit and we who think there are better ways going forward will do the same

And yet you're still just going to spend hours on this forum grumbling and fussing about 'rising rates' and how you don't think the PP is going to work going forward.


As iron sharpens iron, So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend - Proverbs 27:17

Let Budd and mathjak alone, I say. They are doing us no harm.


TOTALLY agree!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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doodle
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by doodle » Sat May 15, 2021 10:51 pm

A couple interesting new funds from simplify asset management that address some people's concerns here.

PFIX and SVOL

Rising rates hedge and volatility hedge.



https://www.simplify.us/news-media/sim ... ind-etfs
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jalanlong
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by jalanlong » Sun May 16, 2021 9:27 am

dockinGA wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 5:45 am
But your comments implying you're on a forum full of lemmings with no idea what they're investing in don't add much to the conversation in my opinion.
I have followed all the relevant posts and I cannot find anywhere mathjak107 suggested that people who disagree with his take on LTTs are “lemmings.” I think you are just inferring that from his disagreement with you.

In any case I enjoy all discussion on investments. The more opinions I can get the better I feel that I have at least contemplated all possible scenarios and poked all possible holes in my portfolio.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by buddtholomew » Sun May 16, 2021 11:16 am

Agreed; the PP is not the be all, end all, portfolio and it is valuable to understand and digest the potential pitfalls that arise from time to time.

Some of us don’t have 100 year investing time frames so a 100K drawdown in LTT’s is definitely concerning. I chose to divest out of LTT’s and although it could have turned out differently, it didn’t.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by dockinGA » Sun May 16, 2021 1:02 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 9:27 am
dockinGA wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 5:45 am
But your comments implying you're on a forum full of lemmings with no idea what they're investing in don't add much to the conversation in my opinion.
I have followed all the relevant posts and I cannot find anywhere mathjak107 suggested that people who disagree with his take on LTTs are “lemmings.” I think you are just inferring that from his disagreement with you.

In any case I enjoy all discussion on investments. The more opinions I can get the better I feel that I have at least contemplated all possible scenarios and poked all possible holes in my portfolio.
I don't have the time or energy to go back and find the keywords from his 3000+ posts to find what led me to think that about him, and maybe it's a misconception, but a quick search for "cult" posts with mathjak as the author turned up a result.

Regardless, my feelings are that, while he has a valid viewpoint and one that I feel everyone on this board SHOULD be considering, derailing each and every forum thread with his comments about 'rising rates' is not productive. The first 100 times, it was productive. The last 1000 times, it's like AC/DC just making the same album over and over and over and over again.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by stuper1 » Sun May 16, 2021 3:37 pm

One thing to remember about the PP is that it's meant to be a portfolio that will perform reasonably well over the long term without much attention being paid to it. In other words, if I get busy and don't get a chance to check on the percentages and rebalance for two or three years, it's not going to matter, it's still going to be fine when I get around to it. For people, who check on their portfolios every day, they may be able to get a better return if they have a good momentum system or similar to follow that requires a lot more attention and work as compared to the PP. Mathjak and Budd seem like guys who check on their portfolio every day. They should just find a system that works for them and be happy about it, without haranguing the rest of us about how they were lied to and over-promised about the PP performance, when in fact as far as I can tell, the PP has been performing similar to always even over the last few years.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by jalanlong » Sun May 16, 2021 6:28 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 3:37 pm
One thing to remember about the PP is that it's meant to be a portfolio that will perform reasonably well over the long term without much attention being paid to it. In other words, if I get busy and don't get a chance to check on the percentages and rebalance for two or three years, it's not going to matter, it's still going to be fine when I get around to it. For people, who check on their portfolios every day, they may be able to get a better return if they have a good momentum system or similar to follow that requires a lot more attention and work as compared to the PP. Mathjak and Budd seem like guys who check on their portfolio every day. They should just find a system that works for them and be happy about it, without haranguing the rest of us about how they were lied to and over-promised about the PP performance, when in fact as far as I can tell, the PP has been performing similar to always even over the last few years.
From Jan 2018 until today the standard PP has underperformed a PP without LTTs and with 1/3 in the other components. So if the PP has performed well in the last 3 years, it is in spite of LTTs, not because of them. They have lessened the volatility a bit but it has come at the expense of returns.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by stuper1 » Sun May 16, 2021 6:30 pm

Sure, you could take any three year period and figure out which of the four assets had performed worst during that period, and if you take that asset out, the portfolio would have performed better. That's inevitable. I'm not sure what you're trying to say. The hard part is figuring out which asset to subtract for the next 3 years and onward.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by jalanlong » Sun May 16, 2021 6:45 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 6:30 pm
Sure, you could take any three year period and figure out which of the four assets had performed worst during that period, and if you take that asset out, the portfolio would have performed better. That's inevitable. I'm not sure what you're trying to say. The hard part is figuring out which asset to subtract for the next 3 years and onward.
Well your comment was that the PP had performed as advertised so you weren’t sure what was the problem with LTTs now. My point is that it performed well in spite of them. So its fair to analyze their usefulness going forward if we are in a long term trend of them dragging on performance.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by I Shrugged » Sun May 16, 2021 7:34 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 6:45 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 6:30 pm
Sure, you could take any three year period and figure out which of the four assets had performed worst during that period, and if you take that asset out, the portfolio would have performed better. That's inevitable. I'm not sure what you're trying to say. The hard part is figuring out which asset to subtract for the next 3 years and onward.
Well your comment was that the PP had performed as advertised so you weren’t sure what was the problem with LTTs now. My point is that it performed well in spite of them. So its fair to analyze their usefulness going forward if we are in a long term trend of them dragging on performance.
You could say the same about a 60/40 classic portfolio. It happens. You have to decide if you believe in the allocation, or not. Nothing wrong with either judgment, as long as your reasoning is sound and not emotional.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun May 16, 2021 8:06 pm

WE LIKE THE BONDS

TREASURIES TO THE MOON
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by flyingpylon » Sun May 16, 2021 9:05 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 8:06 pm
WE LIKE THE BONDS

TREASURIES TO THE MOON
HODL!!
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by jswinner » Sun May 16, 2021 11:06 pm

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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by Hal » Mon May 17, 2021 1:17 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 9:05 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 8:06 pm
WE LIKE THE BONDS

TREASURIES TO THE MOON
HODL!!
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doodle
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by doodle » Thu May 20, 2021 9:45 pm

Most recent David Rosenberg interview...for those interested in listening to intelligent counterpoint to the current consensus inflationary viewpoint. Is this man just an idiot? Or perhaps the markets latest obsession is simply smoke and mirrors..


https://youtu.be/7VTHEAkCxq4



Interview starts at 11 minutes...
Don
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by Don » Mon May 24, 2021 8:35 pm

I need to rebalance out of stocks but I just can't bring myself to reallocate into LTTS or cash right now. What should I do?
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by I Shrugged » Mon May 24, 2021 9:44 pm

Don wrote:
Mon May 24, 2021 8:35 pm
I need to rebalance out of stocks but I just can't bring myself to reallocate into LTTS or cash right now. What should I do?
Gold goes with anything.
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Re: Rebalancing into more LTT

Post by pors » Tue May 25, 2021 3:05 am

From the man who designed the All Weather Portfolio with 40% LTT and 15% ITT:
“Personally, I’d rather have bitcoin than a bond” in an inflationary scenario
https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1396829556904972293
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