Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by vnatale » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:05 am

From reading many of your posts, Mathjak, it seems fairly clear that you came to embrace the Permanent Portfolio in hopes that it would represent some form of "safe haven" for you. You have been subsequently disappointed by its performance since you made your investments in it.

Maybe the below has something for you.

Vinny

Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/do-safe-hav ... ?issue=329
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by stuper1 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:42 am

Not to derail the thread, but I don't understand MJ's disappointment. When I run the numbers for the standard PP from January 2016 to March 2021 in Portfolio Visualizer, it has a CAGR of 7.79% with a max drawdown of 6.78% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.05. The PP seems to be working fine as far as I can tell. I don't know where else you are going to get relative safety with still a bit of steady growth. What am I missing?
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by EdwardjK » Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:56 pm

Whether you are satisfied or not with the Permanent Portfolio depends in large part on your needs and objectives. Speaking for myself, I am retired and need an average 5% annual return (after assuming 3% annual inflation) to spend my last dollar at 99 years of age. Of course there is risk if inflation increases beyond 3%, Democrats decide I have too much wealth and went to give it to someone else, or taxes increase (am I being redundant?).

Every person's situation is different.

Ed
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:17 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:42 am
Not to derail the thread, but I don't understand MJ's disappointment. When I run the numbers for the standard PP from January 2016 to March 2021 in Portfolio Visualizer, it has a CAGR of 7.79% with a max drawdown of 6.78% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.05. The PP seems to be working fine as far as I can tell. I don't know where else you are going to get relative safety with still a bit of steady growth. What am I missing?
Simple ,what happens to an investment prior to anyone else being in it is a moot point .so far for as long as I am using it ,it sucks compared to the conservative model I was using...I am around 100k behind where I would have been had I not switched.

The pp really is not that protective anymore in this environment unless we have that proverbial bad lingering crash which happens very very few times in ones investing time frame and even then if it crashed because of inflation fears all bets are off the pp anyway .

. At 25- 35% equities these crashes would still be no more problematic in hind sight in the portfolio that I was using .

The fear of rising rates as well as rising rates is the pp’s kryptonite. I am not convinced anymore that the pp is as safe as those using it think ..especially as we saw with zero on cash , and bonds and gold getting hammered together .

In the old days a 12 to 15% drop in an asset class was made whole again just by interest in just two years
.

There really is nothing to argue based on the past as we never had such low nominal rates and such high stock valuations.

Falling rates for four decades has really skewed the pp performance into looking a lot better then it may be today ....so far I am unimpressed compared to the other conservative alternatives.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:56 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by I Shrugged » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:44 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:17 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:42 am
Not to derail the thread, but I don't understand MJ's disappointment. When I run the numbers for the standard PP from January 2016 to March 2021 in Portfolio Visualizer, it has a CAGR of 7.79% with a max drawdown of 6.78% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.05. The PP seems to be working fine as far as I can tell. I don't know where else you are going to get relative safety with still a bit of steady growth. What am I missing?
Simple ,what happens to an investment prior to anyone else being in it is a moot point .so far for as long as I am using it ,it sucks compared to the conservative model I was using...I am around 100k behind where I would have been had I not switched.

The pp really is not that protective anymore in this environment unless we have that proverbial bad lingering crash which happens very very few times in ones investing time frame and even then if it crashed because of inflation fears all bets are off the pp anyway .

. At 25- 35% equities these crashes would still be no more problematic in hind sight in the portfolio that I was using .

The fear of rising rates as well as rising rates is the pp’s kryptonite. I am not convinced anymore that the pp is as safe as those using it think ..especially as we saw with. Zero on cash , and bonds and gold getting hammered together .
.

There really is nothing argue based on the past as we never had such low nominal rates and such high stock valuations.

Falling rates for four decades has really skewed the pp performance into looking a lot better then it may be today ....so far unimpressed compared to the other conservative alternatives.
To be clear, it doesn’t seem you have direct experience of the PP not protecting your wealth in bad times. You have the very typical cognitive dissonance during a stock bull market, and you have a prediction that it won’t work well going forward. But that’s of even less substance than prior performance.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by stuper1 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:46 pm

What does the "conservative model" portfolio look like broadly speaking?
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by pp4me » Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:13 pm

At some point, if you have enough money, I think it isn't so much a question of whether safe havens actually exist as do I even need them?

If you are at a point where there was a major stock market crash followed by a long bear market, and you are pretty sure you will still have enough to meet your needs then you don't have to worry so much about safe havens.

I'm not there but some of our friends here probably are. So it's like comparing apples to oranges.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by I Shrugged » Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:38 pm

pp4me wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:13 pm
At some point, if you have enough money, I think it isn't so much a question of whether safe havens actually exist as do I even need them?

If you are at a point where there was a major stock market crash followed by a long bear market, and you are pretty sure you will still have enough to meet your needs then you don't have to worry so much about safe havens.

I'm not there but some of our friends here probably are. So it's like comparing apples to oranges.
That’s a good point. As one investing author said, Bill Gates could hold 100% stocks.
A lot of people say, if I had big money, I’d just hold t bills, which is the exact opposite.

Gold is a pretty safe haven provided you don’t lose it. ;)
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:18 pm

pp4me wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 4:13 pm
At some point, if you have enough money, I think it isn't so much a question of whether safe havens actually exist as do I even need them?

If you are at a point where there was a major stock market crash followed by a long bear market, and you are pretty sure you will still have enough to meet your needs then you don't have to worry so much about safe havens.

I'm not there but some of our friends here probably are. So it's like comparing apples to oranges.
The effect is the same ...a portfolio with 5 million that has a 4% draw rate to live on has the same odds of failing as a 900k portfolio at a 4% draw .

It is what your draw rate is that is important not the amount ..the success rate is identical.

The more you have generally the more you live on
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:20 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:46 pm
What does the "conservative model" portfolio look like broadly speaking?
25-35% equities and short to intermediate term bonds with a sprinkling of high yield....

In my case I use the fidelity insight income model which is 25% equities and season to taste with the 100% equities growth Model bringing the total package to 30% to 35% equities ...after a sell off I may go as high as 40% equities.

Still pretty conservative for a retirement portfolio
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by pp4me » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:18 pm
The more you have generally the more you live on

Well, that's one thing I'm sure we can agree on.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:50 pm

Many back in to what they have to work with at retirement.I mean we always planned on having a better lifestyle in retirement than while working and raising a family and having to invest and save too .

So our retirement budget is more than we lived on working .

But we are just as vulnerable to a down market as we were and we we still have to invest and hope for good sequences ...how much you have is always subject to the draw you take off it .

Personally I could never see amassing a lot of money and then not utilizing it to live and enjoy
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:57 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:44 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:17 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:42 am
Not to derail the thread, but I don't understand MJ's disappointment. When I run the numbers for the standard PP from January 2016 to March 2021 in Portfolio Visualizer, it has a CAGR of 7.79% with a max drawdown of 6.78% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.05. The PP seems to be working fine as far as I can tell. I don't know where else you are going to get relative safety with still a bit of steady growth. What am I missing?
Simple ,what happens to an investment prior to anyone else being in it is a moot point .so far for as long as I am using it ,it sucks compared to the conservative model I was using...I am around 100k behind where I would have been had I not switched.

The pp really is not that protective anymore in this environment unless we have that proverbial bad lingering crash which happens very very few times in ones investing time frame and even then if it crashed because of inflation fears all bets are off the pp anyway .

. At 25- 35% equities these crashes would still be no more problematic in hind sight in the portfolio that I was using .

The fear of rising rates as well as rising rates is the pp’s kryptonite. I am not convinced anymore that the pp is as safe as those using it think ..especially as we saw with. Zero on cash , and bonds and gold getting hammered together .
.

There really is nothing argue based on the past as we never had such low nominal rates and such high stock valuations.

Falling rates for four decades has really skewed the pp performance into looking a lot better then it may be today ....so far unimpressed compared to the other conservative alternatives.
To be clear, it doesn’t seem you have direct experience of the PP not protecting your wealth in bad times. You have the very typical cognitive dissonance during a stock bull market, and you have a prediction that it won’t work well going forward. But that’s of even less substance than prior performance.
2/3s of our time is spent in up markets ..only 1/3 is spent down and very few of those downs have extended two years time .

So planning for just the bad times at the expense of the good times can certainly be hazardous to your wealth if you are in the accumulation stage ..in retirement a simple 50/50 has done fine over the 120 30 year cycles to date ..in nominal returns a 50/50 has never even been down over a 10 or 20 year period.

In fact 100% equities in retirement has almost the same success rate as 50/50 because the up years are so much higher they cushion the down years ..so at the end of the day all this fear of down markets is more mental than financial even when spending down ...

The Achilles heel of 100% equities would be starting off in retirement with a prolonged Down market ...other than that it is not the problem it is made out to be .

I wouldn’t want that volatility mentally but financially no problem.. so the real question is , why pay for all this protection which may work against you anyway ....rising rates can be horrible for the pp going forward.....the gamble as I see it is the same as my old model
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by pp4me » Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:10 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:50 pm
Many back in to what they have to work with at retirement.I mean we always planned on having a better lifestyle in retirement than while working and raising a family and having to invest and save too .

So our retirement budget is more than we lived on working .

But we are just as vulnerable to a down market as we were and we we still have to invest and hope for good sequences ...how much you have is always subject to the draw you take off it .

Personally I could never see amassing a lot of money and then not utilizing it to live and enjoy
I have a nice house in a peaceful suburb in Florida and the only complaint I have is too much noise on a busy road when I sit on the porch watching TV and smoking pot. My wife tells me, a legal immigrant from the Philippines who beautifully speaks her mind as I do, if you want a more peaceful place go live in a graveyard.

All I really want at almost age 72 is to see more of the awesome world while I'm still here and there is nothing to prevent us from doing that right now than COVID.

Otherwise life is great and I really have absolutely nothing to complain about.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by Don » Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:27 pm

pp4me wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:10 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:50 pm
Many back in to what they have to work with at retirement.I mean we always planned on having a better lifestyle in retirement than while working and raising a family and having to invest and save too .

So our retirement budget is more than we lived on working .

But we are just as vulnerable to a down market as we were and we we still have to invest and hope for good sequences ...how much you have is always subject to the draw you take off it .

Personally I could never see amassing a lot of money and then not utilizing it to live and enjoy
I have a nice house in a peaceful suburb in Florida and the only complaint I have is too much noise on a busy road when I sit on the porch watching TV and smoking pot. My wife tells me, a legal immigrant from the Philippines who beautifully speaks her mind as I do, if you want a more peaceful place go live in a graveyard.

All I really want at almost age 72 is to see more of the awesome world while I'm still here and there is nothing to prevent us from doing that right now than COVID.

Otherwise life is great and I really have absolutely nothing to complain about.
I wouldn't want to be your neighbor and have to smell that crap.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:48 pm

As we stand today one can gamble on equities more in a conventional portfolio, or gamble on rates more in the pp and the outcome of gold and long term bonds ....either way there are disadvantages to both and risks in both ...it is all a question of what you want to bet on .

Rising rates until they get way high are not a problem for equities ..fast rising rates are a problem for equities....but fast or slow rising rates will hurt the pp as we saw.

You can data mine all the past time frames you like , but markets are going to do what they are going to do regardless of what the past was .....

The old safety assets don’t even act as safety assets much ....they may spike for a few days then give it all back ...there are just to many ways today to bet against something including inverse funds and crypto...

I don’t have a whole lot of faith in my bet on the pp , I wish I had a better outlook for it but I don’t
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by doodle » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:03 pm


I don’t have a whole lot of faith in my bet on the pp , I wish I had a better outlook for it but I don’t
But yet you seem to have quite a bit of faith in your previous allocation. Why you stick around in this portfolio is beyond me...are you a sucker for mental anguish? Why would you continue to reallocate your funds day after day to something you are so pessimistic about? Your balance tomorrow morning is what it is...better to have it in something you feel confident in, right?
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by stuper1 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:26 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:20 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:46 pm
What does the "conservative model" portfolio look like broadly speaking?
25-35% equities and short to intermediate term bonds with a sprinkling of high yield....
This sounds like the PP with more bond risk, no gold, and I presume active management. Like you say, everybody gets to pick their poison.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:56 am

stuper1 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:26 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:20 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:46 pm
What does the "conservative model" portfolio look like broadly speaking?
25-35% equities and short to intermediate term bonds with a sprinkling of high yield....
This sounds like the PP with more bond risk, no gold, and I presume active management. Like you say, everybody gets to pick their poison.
No , it is way way less bond risk .

Only 17% is in a total bond fund ... the rest of the bond budget is in 1-3 year short term bonds , mortgage securities which move little and high yield which is more stock like than bond like. Interest rate sensitivity is very small.

The portfolio is equity driven
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:04 am

doodle wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:03 pm

I don’t have a whole lot of faith in my bet on the pp , I wish I had a better outlook for it but I don’t
But yet you seem to have quite a bit of faith in your previous allocation. Why you stick around in this portfolio is beyond me...are you a sucker for mental anguish? Why would you continue to reallocate your funds day after day to something you are so pessimistic about? Your balance tomorrow morning is what it is...better to have it in something you feel confident in, right?
If I wasn’t so far behind in the pp I likely would have moved away from it but I think for now the damage is done ...the other model had its juiciest gains in equities at This point ..so for now that ship likely sailed ....it doesn’t mean I am happy about missing that cruise but I will finish out my commitment to the pp a bit longer and see where it goes .

I admit I made a poor choice in the pp but I think I may have missed the low hanging fruit now in the other model.

The risk in the pp at this point is way greater than I thought it would be and the loss potential if the sun and planets don’t align can be like betting on a very heavy equity portfolio as multiple asset classes move together in sync.

I have had some of my biggest daily moves in the pp when three asset groups move in sync.

I never expected to see over a 130k loss in a matter of weeks , especially while the other models are gaining

I no longer view the pp as a safe haven but as a portfolio making a big bet on rates
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by Kevin K. » Mon Apr 26, 2021 10:49 am

I think a lot of us are trying to get a sense of what the current "new normal" of massive QE, unprecedented low interest rates and sky-high U.S. stock market valuations means for the PP and other defensive allocations going forward.

Going back to the original post, what do we mean by "safe haven"? For me as a retiree living off of assets it means an allocation that's likely to deliver a modest positive annual real return (say 3-5% real) with few negative years, quick (~less than 5 years) recovery from such years and worst-case drawdowns under 20% so as not to be tempted to bail on the portfolio.

Historically there have been quite a number of portfolios that could work, including the PP, GB, various iterations of the Larry Swedroe portfolio (including Desert's), Wellesley with or without a slice of gold added and plain vanilla Vanguard Target Retirement Income fund or a bond-heavy (~60-70%) version of the Three Fund.

But - echoing some of mathjak's comments - we're in a situation where having 50% in a barbell of cash yielding nothing and LTT's with little or no dead cat bounce left in 'em to protect against the next market meltdown plus TSM dominated by a handful of grossly overvalued FAANG stocks and a big bet on gold (whose achilles heel is rising interest rates and inflation) doesn't exactly look like safe harbor.

Mathjak's suggested alternative retiree portfolio based on the FIDO income model is for all intents and purposes a roll-your-own varaint of VTINX. If I were going to go that route I'd just do a geezer's Three Fund: 10% in cash (iBonds, online CD's), 50% VGIT, 20% each VTI and VXUS and call it a day. It's a good enough portfolio and likely (IMHO) to outperform the PP going forward. Ditto with 80% Wellesley, 20% gold or (my current choice) the Golden Butterfly with ITT's instead of the barbell.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by EdwardjK » Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:44 am

Mathjak stated, "I no longer view the pp as a safe haven but as a portfolio making a big bet on rates".

As we have not seen an increasing interest rate environment in the last 40 years, Mathjak is correct with this statement. I purchased my first home in early 1981. When I applied for a mortgage, the quoted interest rate was 12.75%. When my mortgage application was approved a month later, the rate was set at 14.25%. Interest rates have declined ever since, and now the Fed is forcibly keeping rates at near zero.

Harry Browne never contemplated such an environment, and we have no historical guidance on what might happen next. But Mathjak may very well be correct in saying that, when interest rates increase, Treasuries will get killed, gold will fall, and equities may also decline.

At least two, and likely three of the PP assets will decline. And the increase in interest from the cash component will not offset the pain elsewhere. So Mathjak may well be correct.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:23 pm

Mathematically bonds are linked to rates ...if rates rise bonds have to follow ..but all stocks are not linked to rates ..many stocks can do well in a slow rising rate environment....so while stocks stand a chance bonds have no chance not to sustain damage .

The less interest rate sensitive the bonds are the less they will grab stocks by the collar and yank what ever gains they can muster backwards.

The insight model actually has surpassed the returns of vtinx the last ten years with less equities
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:35 pm

Don't mean to be putting you under the microscope Jak. Your specific complaint is a bit different than others who've come before you, but in the broader sense it's the same. There is always one (or more!) of the PP components that someone will find fault with both in history and in looking ahead. And that's fine. It's not for everyone. There will always be an allocation that outperforms it. If you can pick one, more power to you.

It's served me very well. I'm sticking with it until I can't stand it. And I'm far, far from there.
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Re: Mathjak! Do Safe Haven Investments Really Exist?m

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:58 pm

That’s what makes horse racing.

But at the end of the day how it works in your own specific case determines good or bad , not some chart from time frames that are irrelevant to you ...

I view each day as a continuation of the balance from the day before , each day is a new day whether I keep the same investments in play or whether I sold everything the night before and am starting out fresh...

If I am up it’s a good choice , if I am down it was an un-good choice at that point in time
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