What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

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jalanlong
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What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by jalanlong » Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:48 pm

I have a hypothetical question: If a bank offered you a 20 year FDIC insured cd but you had to move all of your PP money into it for those 20 years, at what cd rate would you think about doing that? 5%? 10%? Or would you not do it under any circumstances? I guess your answer sort of depends upon your view of inflation over the next 20 years. Just an interesting question I pondered.
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by vincent_c » Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:05 pm

Right now I'll take 10%.

In reality if I could borrow at a fixed rate for less I would invest as much as possible in any higher rate.
whatchamacallit
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:58 pm

You asked that previously I remember.

Us 20 year bond at 2.2%

Japan 20 year at .5%

German 20 year at 0

5% seems like a steal.

Scary to think about what that means for future growth.

Now tell us where it can be obtained.
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:13 am

I think the HBPP inflation adjusted returns are supposed to be around 4%.
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Vil
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by Vil » Tue Mar 09, 2021 3:06 am

Expect Heineken (HEIA) to drop a bit, from PP I do not expect anything... Just not to lose too much for too long ..
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by pp4me » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:03 pm

This wasn't a hypothetical question for my parents. Bank CD's were paying 18% when they retired and they invested their whole nest egg in them. They continued rolling them over as their only investment vehicle until they died - almost penniless BTW due to the declining rates hitting near zero at the end.

I don't remember what the terms were but I'm pretty sure no bank was committing to anything near 20 years. LTT's, on the other hand, were being offered at 14% which would have probably been a much better choice for them in hindsight.

If rates ever went that high again I doubt that I would keep anything more than the standard PP or GB allocation but it would be hard to sell LTTs when they reached 20 years to maturity.
Last edited by pp4me on Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dualstow
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:44 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:48 pm
... had to move all of your PP money into it for those 20 years, at what cd rate would you think about doing that? 5%? 10%?
...
That's very different from the title! I would take a CD Rate of 7% in a heartbeat, but I don't know that the pp will get me 5%. I think the average will be good over time.
traveling...
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Cortopassi
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:08 pm

Almost one year ago, the pp hit an intraday low of about -15% for me.

And it ended the year up 20%.

While I would love 5% on the cash portion like old days, I still believe the pp will do fine, but I do not know what fine is....
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by EdwardjK » Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:47 pm

I'd take 8% and buy new cars and new women every year.
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Vil
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by Vil » Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:16 am

EdwardjK wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:47 pm
... and buy ... new women every year.
Are you buying them on dips/discount or some other strategy ? ;D

Where I live they are in decades long bullish trend (due to emancipation, feminism, etc.) so too expensive already ...
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 10, 2021 12:24 pm

Vil wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:16 am
EdwardjK wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:47 pm
... and buy ... new women every year.
Are you buying them on dips/discount or some other strategy ? ;D

Where I live they are in decades long bullish trend (due to emancipation, feminism, etc.) so too expensive already ...
O0 I think Edward is dedicated to diversification.
traveling...
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by vincent_c » Wed Mar 10, 2021 2:10 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 12:24 pm
Vil wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:16 am
EdwardjK wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:47 pm
... and buy ... new women every year.
Are you buying them on dips/discount or some other strategy ? ;D

Where I live they are in decades long bullish trend (due to emancipation, feminism, etc.) so too expensive already ...
O0 I think Edward is dedicated to diversification.
I feel a bit of FOMO
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I Shrugged
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:10 am

My guess is 5% (not real) for the next decade.
Slightly positive real.
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Cortopassi
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Re: What return do you expect for the PP going forward?

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:14 am

If anyone looks at 1 year return numbers, seems we are really close to where the bottom occurred one year ago. Look a those returns if you plunged into stocks or silver last March!

Image

And the shelves at Target:

Image
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