Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:41 pm

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:38 pm
The biggest danger to bitcoin is I don't really care. In the same way I didn't care about beanie babies, or pokemon cards, or whatever the latest greatest thing is. That's how the sizzle becomes a fizzle. It doesn't take anything dramatic, just simply a bunch of disinterested individuals. Maybe I'll be in the minority...maybe bitcoin is facebook and not myspace. Frankly at this point, I don't care. When it can do something interesting other than be sold to the next greater fool maybe I'll start caring.
Now substitute 'gold' for 'bitcoin' above.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:54 pm

doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:40 pm
A lot of the speculative easy money has also already piled in. It takes a certain type of individual to be attracted to this roller coaster. At some point the trajectory starts to grind to a much slower pace....the question is at that point how many of these individuals will jump ship for the next high flying quick buck?
A bunch probably. Especially in the end phase of this bubble. It will be similar to the $1-$30 bubble and the many bubbles since then.
doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:40 pm
I've spoken in person to a variety of bitcoin holders....almost unanimously they don't give a rip about crypto as a tech...they in it because they like the speculative nature of it. Much different than the gold bug crowd
Again, substitute gold/bitcoin. How many gold holders can recite the physics behind gold? The protons neutrons electrons? The process by which gold forms in stars?

Nah those silly gold bugs, they are just holding gold for its monetary properties. Psssht... Likely they are holding to flip it to someone else, (some greater fool!) for a higher price someday. Classic ponzi. Or what do they just plan to DIE with it or pass it to their brat offspring?
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:56 pm

I get the parallels you try to draw between the two but I think they are somewhat tenuous when comparing a store of value with 6000 years of history and another highly volatile and speculative asset that few understand with a little more than a decade of history. The hype on internet is powerful, but doesn't persuade me. My disinterest is bitcoins greatest danger.
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bitcoininthevp
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:01 pm

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:56 pm
I get the parallels you try to draw between the two but I think they are somewhat tenuous when comparing a store of value with 6000 years of history and another highly volatile and speculative asset that few understand with a little more than a decade of history. The hype on internet is powerful, but doesn't persuade me. My disinterest is bitcoins greatest danger.
Im simply forcing you to retreat to actual arguments that are germane to the uniqueness of bitcoin.

Your disinterest is just that, yours.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by doodle » Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:10 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:54 pm
doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:40 pm
A lot of the speculative easy money has also already piled in. It takes a certain type of individual to be attracted to this roller coaster. At some point the trajectory starts to grind to a much slower pace....the question is at that point how many of these individuals will jump ship for the next high flying quick buck?
A bunch probably. Especially in the end phase of this bubble. It will be similar to the $1-$30 bubble and the many bubbles since then.
doodle wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:40 pm
I've spoken in person to a variety of bitcoin holders....almost unanimously they don't give a rip about crypto as a tech...they in it because they like the speculative nature of it. Much different than the gold bug crowd
Again, substitute gold/bitcoin. How many gold holders can recite the physics behind gold? The protons neutrons electrons? The process by which gold forms in stars?

Nah those silly gold bugs, they are just holding gold for its monetary properties. Psssht... Likely they are holding to flip it to someone else, (some greater fool!) for a higher price someday. Classic ponzi. Or what do they just plan to DIE with it or pass it to their brat offspring?
Of course gold is a greater fool asset...other than it's raw commodity value. I'm simply saying I don't care about bitcoin..or NFTs for that matter...or picasso paintings. To each his own. I'm just saying that my disinterest is bitcoins biggest hurdle. How many more are going to jump in off the sidelines to double the price and then double it again? Not me. That's the danger.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:59 pm

At some point Bitcoin will be fully monetized and its value will plateau. Along with it volatility. I think we are a ways away from that.

It is hard to say how much money needs to come in to Bitcoin move the price a certain amount. Especially with Bitcoin's inability to create more coins in response to high demand.

In the meantime, it seems like we are destined for a series of bubbles along the monetization path.

Likely us yahoos on the forum here are not moving the price much even with our collective buying power. Bitcoin goes to $100k and $1m+ via companies adding it to their balance sheet and then governments buying bitcoin. So sentiment matters, sure, but retail sentiment is fading and will continue to fade in importance.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by senecaaa » Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:58 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:38 pm
When it can do something interesting other than be sold to the next greater fool maybe I'll start caring.
I think it can do very interesting things that cannot be done with fiat money.

E.g., the fact that no one controls it gives people in countries with an oppressive government the possibility to transfers large amounts of value. No need to hide chunks of gold in dark places when you cross the border :)

Bitcoin scripts and timelocks unlock many features that no other form of money offer (without a central trusted party), like micropayments or multi-party control of capital, etc.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:14 am

I hate bitcoin and gold personally but I finally have it in my hard head to hold some gbtc at least. It isn't going away. It might go down 75% but it will be with us as long as the internet is.

I wish I would have followed this article in 2019:

https://www.investopedia.com/news/every ... ale-study/
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by Kbg » Wed Mar 31, 2021 1:41 pm

CME is starting micro bitcoin futures in May at 1/10th the quoted rate...If these things gain some traction/volume I think I'll be doing a little speculation with them. Cash settled as well, double bonus.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:25 am

GBTC is not tracking today. Is it kaput? :-)
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:26 am

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:25 am
GBTC is not tracking today. Is it kaput? :-)
Market holiday for Good Friday
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:28 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:26 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:25 am
GBTC is not tracking today. Is it kaput? :-)
Market holiday for Good Friday
Ah! Everything else is not tracking too :)
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:28 am

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:28 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:26 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:25 am
GBTC is not tracking today. Is it kaput? :-)
Market holiday for Good Friday
Ah! Everything else is not tracking too :)
Haha, yes...day off :)
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:36 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:28 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:28 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:26 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:25 am
GBTC is not tracking today. Is it kaput? :-)
Market holiday for Good Friday
Ah! Everything else is not tracking too :)
Haha, yes...day off :)
Not for real crypto though. Crypto never sleeps :-)
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by glennds » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:00 pm

Has anybody here researched or gamed out the regulatory risks to BTC or all cryptocurrencies for that matter?
By this I mean, what might happen if the US government, or a coalition of governments take the position that crypto is a destabilizing threat.

This could happen in the context of another financial crisis where crypto obstructs recovery in the way that governments would like to see it happen. In 1933 the US government banned and confiscated gold because it threatened the US dollar and the banking system for example.

Is this just an implicit risk of crypto, or are there steps that can be taken to hedge it?
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:55 pm

glennds wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:00 pm
Has anybody here researched or gamed out the regulatory risks to BTC or all cryptocurrencies for that matter?
By this I mean, what might happen if the US government, or a coalition of governments take the position that crypto is a destabilizing threat.

This could happen in the context of another financial crisis where crypto obstructs recovery in the way that governments would like to see it happen. In 1933 the US government banned and confiscated gold because it threatened the US dollar and the banking system for example.

Is this just an implicit risk of crypto, or are there steps that can be taken to hedge it?
I created a buffer by buying and selling. I've returned all my cash I used to buy crypto in the beginning of the investing. If now the rest of the crypto tanks I'm OK with that. But meanwhile there is a chance to earn some extra. If not, fine, at least will not loose anything :-)
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:15 pm

glennds wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:00 pm
Has anybody here researched or gamed out the regulatory risks to BTC or all cryptocurrencies for that matter?
By this I mean, what might happen if the US government, or a coalition of governments take the position that crypto is a destabilizing threat.

This could happen in the context of another financial crisis where crypto obstructs recovery in the way that governments would like to see it happen. In 1933 the US government banned and confiscated gold because it threatened the US dollar and the banking system for example.

Is this just an implicit risk of crypto, or are there steps that can be taken to hedge it?
I think it is too late now. They should have labeled it a pyramid scheme in the beginning and made it illegal right there.

Now that it has been allowed to transact legally, how would they make people whole if it was banned?

Would government buy it back? Then what do they do with?

Bitcoin has become a computer virus that encourages humans to spread it.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by glennds » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:15 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:15 pm
glennds wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:00 pm
Has anybody here researched or gamed out the regulatory risks to BTC or all cryptocurrencies for that matter?
By this I mean, what might happen if the US government, or a coalition of governments take the position that crypto is a destabilizing threat.

This could happen in the context of another financial crisis where crypto obstructs recovery in the way that governments would like to see it happen. In 1933 the US government banned and confiscated gold because it threatened the US dollar and the banking system for example.

Is this just an implicit risk of crypto, or are there steps that can be taken to hedge it?
I think it is too late now. They should have labeled it a pyramid scheme in the beginning and made it illegal right there.

Now that it has been allowed to transact legally, how would they make people whole if it was banned?

Would government buy it back? Then what do they do with?

Bitcoin has become a computer virus that encourages humans to spread it.
They would confiscate it, devalue it, or both.

Here's one scenario:
For context, let's assume there was a financial crisis, debt crisis, or some other macro event that is threatening the stability of the US dollar and financial system. And let's say crypto is a both an obstacle and a threat because it's a competing asset. So the US Government or a coalition of other governments (EU, Canada, Asian countries) proceed to ban crypto and take it out of circulation. But the way they do it is not classical confiscation but rather impose a tax of say 95% of all gain on the asset. Ignoring that this act would basically crater the market immediately, what has happened is that the government has effectively confiscated your gains as a crypto holder. It doesn't have to be 95%, it could be 85% or 75%. The effect is still the same.

So a tech oriented crypto owner says fine, I'll just avoid Coinbase or GBTC and self store my crypto in my own wallet. Total privacy, who would know?
Well the value of your crypto has now been destroyed because the market has been destroyed. But nonetheless, let's say you find a private party in the black market who will buy it when you want to sell. If you don't declare the gain, you've committed tax fraud and become a felon x1. If it were truly declared illegal, then you've also engaged in an illegal transaction which makes you a felon x2.
If the money is material, it will pop up on the radar in the same way in which the Feds detect drug money, terrorist money, other forms of illegal funds.
So then maybe launder the money in some way? Now you're a felon x3 and effectively traded your gains for the life of a fugitive. All bad options.

I'm not saying this will happen, but please someone tell me why it can't or won't.
And without warning, through Executive Order. An action like this is well within the Presidential emergency action authority.

I'm a fan of crypto, and not arguing against investing in it, but like HB talked about, consider the various ways any investment can go wrong. Regulatory risk is one of the biggest for crypto that I can see.
I'm just looking for dissenting views on why this shouldn't be a concern.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:39 pm

glennds wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:15 pm

I'm not saying this will happen, but please someone tell me why it can't or won't.
In the US they did with gold... Can happen again... with gold... or crypto.
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:51 pm

This might be start up setup. Since creator is unknown I can't prove otherwise.

Bitcoin is financial weapon from Chinese government.

https://fortune.com/2021/04/07/peter-th ... al-weapon/
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by glennds » Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:00 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:39 pm
glennds wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:15 pm

I'm not saying this will happen, but please someone tell me why it can't or won't.
In the US they did with gold... Can happen again... with gold... or crypto.


Exactly right regarding gold, although it was direct confiscation, not the taxation scenario I outlined above. I wouldn't see that happening again today because as it sits, gold is an implied market cap of around 7-8 trillion whereas the US monetary base is closer to 49 trillion. This means gold is not large enough to destabilize the USD all by itself, which was not the case in 1933.
BTC is 1 trillion today, but under the network effect and Metcalfe's law, if it continues to grow exponentially AND there is a crisis, it is conceivable that it (or the sum total of cryptocurrencies) could rise to the level of a legitimate threat hence my questions.

Listening to myself here, maybe the answer is to pay attention to the market cap and be prepared to quickly take your gains if a crisis is upon us, admittedly not easy to do. Or forego compounding by taking gains out at intervals, which somewhat defeats the benefits of an asset both speculative and volatile.
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whatchamacallit
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:47 pm

The TIME magazine market top indicator is getting very close. It isn't a cover yet but at this rate I expect bitcoin to be on the cover this year.

https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/bitcoi ... ld-bitcoin

For reference housing indicator
https://ritholtz.com/2005/06/uh-oh-time ... n-housing/
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Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

Post by whatchamacallit » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:24 am

Bold prediction with a good bit of time left in year.
TIME magazine person of the year:
Satoshi Nakamoto

Then cue market top of our current debt cycle.
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